Whether evoking alarm, happiness, or confusion, broad large-cap equity indices are within single digits of new all-time highs; a topic further articulated in last week’s (8/13) Prospecting: Peak to (almost) Peak section. In fact, although summer months are historically associated with lackluster returns in the investment world, 2020 is on track to override its Summertime Blues as the S&P 500 SPX, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, and Nasdaq Composite NASD have currently posted gains of 14.43%, 13.81%, and 19.36%, respectively (data from 5/25/2020 – 8/17/2020). As a previously narrow market rally continues to broaden we note increased participation from many individual stocks and ETFs, like the VictoryShares US 500 Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF CFO as it recently hit a new all-time chart high at $55.

Since posting a bottom at $43.50 CFO rallied to give two consecutive buy signals, the most recent coming with a double top break at $52, and push past the previous all-time chart high at $54 posted in January of 2020. CFO also boasts an optimal fund score of 4.29 and a strongly positive score direction of 1.89, complimenting the overall technical strength present. Additionally, CFO recently experienced a flip to positive monthly momentum, suggesting the potential for further upside from here. The weight of the evidence is positive for CFO yet those looking to initiate new long exposure may consider waiting for a pullback or price normalization as the fund is approaching the top of its ten-week trading band. CFO currently resides on a “stem” (elongated column of Xs), so we look for initial support on a more sensitive scale which we find at $51.50 and $51 on the quarter-point chart. Note CFO also offers a yield of 1.12%.

For additional information on the mechanics or methodology of the VictoryShares US 500 Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF, click here to review the fact sheet.

This weekly overview is designed to be used as a "radar" screen to bring your attention to potentially important technical changes that may require your attention and potential action. When evaluating the Fund Score, the strongest issues have scores of 4 or higher while those ETFs with scores below a 3 are no longer considered solid citizens.

This section of the report categorizes all of the Victory Mutual Funds by their respective broad group. Along with each group, you can view the Average Group Score, which is an average of the scores of all funds represented in that particular group. Those Victory Mutual Funds that meet or exceed the Average Group Score will be highlighted in green in order to easily view those Victory Mutual Funds that have superior strength within their respective group. You want to focus on those Victory Mutual Funds that exhibit superior strength when looking to add new exposure to a particular group.

The distribution curve places each ETF on a bell curve according to their respective degrees of overbought or oversold status using a 10-week distribution. ETFs that are statistically oversold will appear on the left-hand side of the bell curve, while those that have become statistically overbought will appear on the right-hand side of the bell curve. Perhaps the most useful attribute of this feature is that it displays the entire universe on the curve at one time to give us a general picture of whether the Victory ETF universe is generally overbought on a near-term basis, or generally oversold. Our best opportunities are to buy strong relative strength ETFs that have regressed back toward mean conditions based on market weakness, or have become oversold based upon extreme market weakness. Weekly Distribution is a short-term gauge that is most helpful in timing entry and exit points, while the longer-term information of trend and relative strength is a more controlling factor in the decision of whether to buy or sell.

Average Level

52.39

									VSDA
									CSA
									USVM
							CDL	CSF	UEVM
							UITB	ULVM	CFO
							USTB	CFA	CIL
							CSB	VSMV	CIZ
						CEY	CID	UIVM	CEZ
<--100	-100--80	-80--60	-60--40	-40--20	-20-0	0-20	20-40	40-60	60-80	80-100	100->

VictoryShares ETF Models

The VictoryShares ETF Models are designed to identify major themes in the US equity marketplace through the use of the Point & Figure relative strength tools. For more information on the portfolio construction and backtesting, see the model info file on the models page.

Weekly Changes: 

* Dates prior to 09/04/2018, which is when the VictoryShares Rotation Model became available on the Dorsey Wright Research Platform are representative of when the position was added to the backtested model

* Dates prior to 09/04/2018, which is when the VictoryShares Select Model became available on the Dorsey Wright Research Platform are representative of when the position was added to the backtested model.