NDW Morning Pulse - July 13, 2026
7/13/26
NDW Morning Pulse - July 10, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 10, 2026.
- Most areas of the investable universe were positive throughout trading on 7/9. Of particular note was gold (which remains a point of relative weakness despite the up day), the Nasdaq Composite and small caps via [RUT]. The S&P 500 gained just under .9% for the day.
- Downside action was rather limited. Crude slipped ~2% as it reversed lower on its default chart, and the US Dollar found itself down just 9 basis points. Barring further escalation in the Middle East, crude looks to be finding its footing in the mid $70’s to upper $60’s.
- Technology and industrials have struggled so far this quarter, seeing representatives [XLK] and [XLI] as the worst performing sectors since 6/30. While one week doesn’t make or break a trend, continued underperformance from these leaders will be important to monitor throughout 2026.
- ^BPNDX, measuring the percentage of Nasdaq-100 stocks trading on buy signals, moved higher yesterday to a chart reading of 58%. While we certainly won’t turn our nose at any expansion of breadth, it’s no secret that participation remains well off highwater marks from 2024 and 2025.
- With its productive day, gold reversed higher on its chart…. But don’t buy into the “fool’s gold” just quite yet. It continues to trade at/around 2026 lows after recently breaking back into a negative trend.
7/10/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 9, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 9, 2026.
- Crude Oil (CL/) was up 4.37% through yesterday's close. Although still up almost 30% year-to-date, the contract has down well below its all-time highs from earlier this year.
- Emerging markets also ticked higher over the past day. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) sits on six consecutive buy signals and is up over 20% YTD.
- Since the healthcare sector moved to overweight territory two weeks ago in our DALI sector rankings, the sector has continued to tick higher, gaining 9 signals this month alone. Consumer staples have also gained 9 signals this month, as more defensive areas of the market continue to show strength.
- The percent positive for the healthcare sector ([^PTECHEALTH]) also crossed back up above 30% in its chart level for the second time since late 2021, highlighting an increase in long-term strength for the sector as a larger percentage of stocks are now contributing to the upside.
- Fed funds futures imply a 64.1% chance of a rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, suggesting that market participants increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
7/9/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 9, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 9, 2026.
- Crude Oil (CL/) was up 4.37% through yesterday's close. Although still up almost 30% year-to-date, the contract has down well below its all-time highs from earlier this year.
- Emerging markets also ticked higher over the past day. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) sits on six consecutive buy signals and is up over 20% YTD.
- Since the healthcare sector moved to overweight territory two weeks ago in our DALI sector rankings, the sector has continued to tick higher, gaining 9 signals this month alone. Consumer staples have also gained 9 signals this month, as more defensive areas of the market continue to show strength.
- The percent positive for the healthcare sector ([^PTECHEALTH]) also crossed back up above 30% in its chart level for the second time since late 2021, highlighting an increase in long-term strength for the sector as a larger percentage of stocks are now contributing to the upside.
- Fed funds futures imply a 64.1% chance of a rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, suggesting that market participants increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
7/9/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 8, 2026
- Futures are again lower this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way to the downside – down around 1.1%. Gold and silver are also lower.
- Oil futures are up about 5% after Iran attacked ships in the strait of Hormuz and the US launched a new wave attacks.
- US equities were down yesterday as the S&P 500 fell 0.45%.
- Tech led the market lower with the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) down 1.75%. Meanwhile, the iShares Semiconductors ETF ([SOXX]) was down more than 5%.
- NDX now sits against notable support at 29,000 on its default chart.
- International equities were also lower on Tuesday as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) fell 1.25% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) dropped 2.75%.
- Bonds were also lower on Tuesday with the iShares US Core Bond ETF ([AGG]) down about 45 bps as long-term US Treasury yields rose.
- Minutes from the last Fed meeting will be released this afternoon and could impact expectations for interest rates. At this point, the market is still pricing in about an 85% chance that the Fed will raise rates this year and about a 45% chance of two 25 bps hikes.
- SpaceX ([SPCX]) was added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday with a weight of around 1.3%. The passive demand didn’t help the stock in the short-term as SPCX finished the day down more than 6.5%.
7/8/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 7, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 7, 2026.
- Markets pushed higher to start the week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.72% on Monday. Meanwhile, the "average stock," represented by the S&P 500 equal weight index, was relatively flat. Still, SPX remains on a sell signal, while SPXEWI completed its fourth consecutive buy signal last week.
- Technology was one of the day’s biggest winners, seeing the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rise 1.67%. Technology continues to sit at the top of DALI's sector rankings, but XLK lost its near-term market relative strength last week.
- Cryptocurrencies also lifted off on Monday, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) rising 3.58%, leaving the fund 10% above its late-June lows. That said, Bitcoin continues to lack long-term strength, demonstrated by IBIT’s weak fund score of just 0.18.
- Financials continued their recent hot streak, with banks leading the group higher. The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) rose 1.92% on the day, and improvement within the subgroup has caused KBWB's fund score to increase to 5.70. The broader financials sector also climbed to fourth in DALI's rankings near the end of Q1.
- Commercial airlines have quietly been among the market’s best-performing areas, and Monday saw the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) rise another 0.42%. With fuel prices starting to creep down and strength returning, its fund score is also up to a near-perfect 5.82.
7/7/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 6, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – July 6, 2026.
- U.S. and international equities were mixed Thursday (7/2), though most finished the week positive.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average ([.DJIA]) led the way to the upside, up 1% Thursday, as the index rallied near 53,000, while the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) led to the way to the downside, down 1.6%. NDX, along with the Russell 2000 ([RUT]), reversed into Os on their default point and figure trend chart, but both continue to maintain buy signals.
- A notable divergence within international markets Thursday with the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) leading all indices, up 1.3%, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EMM]) fell more than 1%. EEM’s chart continued lower in its current column of Os on its default point and figure chart, forming a double bottom and potential sell signal for the first time in 12 months or more.
- After seeing the bullish percent for the S&P 500 ([^BPSPX]) reverse into Xs on the first trading day of July, the long-term positive trend for the large cap index [^PTSPX] returned to bull confirmed status for the first time since late 2024. In addition to highlighting a slight increase in large cap stocks maintaining buy signals, the ^PT’s move higher shows stocks are also seeing trends change back to positive.
- This week will kick off the beginning stages of Q2 earnings season with the likes of Pepsi ([PEP]) and Delta Air Lines ([DAL]) reporting this Thursday (7/9) and Friday (7/10).
- South Korean chip maker, SK Hynix, announced Monday (7/6) it will be listing ADRs on Nasdaq.
- Fed minutes are due to be released this coming Wednesday (7/8).
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7/6/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 2, 2026
- The market-cap-weighted S&P 500 ([SPX]) pulled back modestly over the past week but remains up roughly 9% year-to-date. Performance continues to trail the equal-weighted S&P 500 ([SPXEWI]) by more than 2 percentage points, reflecting ongoing strength in the average stock relative to the index’s largest constituents.
- The Russell 2000 ([RUT]) has completed three consecutive buy signals and is now up approximately 21% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points in 2026. This strength is also evident in our Asset Class Group Scores, where multiple small-cap groups rank above the 90th percentile, underscoring the significant improvement in small-cap leadership this year.
- Within our DALI Sector Rankings, Health Care added 50 signals during June, advancing to third place and firmly into overweight territory. The sector’s rise has coincided with notable weakness in Energy, which saw its signal count decline by roughly 50% over the course of the month.
- The market is currently assigning a greater than 50% probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ([TLT]) recently completed a double-bottom breakout above $85.75, a move that comes as Treasury yields start to trend higher entering the second half of the year.
- This week’s featured research piece highlights our Smart Beta Quilts, which track factor performance across a variety of market segments. Within U.S. equities, Growth and Momentum have reestablished themselves as the leading factors, currently occupying the top spots in the rankings.
7/2/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 1, 2026
- US equities were up for a second day in a row yesterday as the S&P 500 ([SPX]) gained 80 bps to finish the quarter on a positive note.
- Technology once again outpaced the broader market as the iShares Semiconductors ETF ([SOXX]) was up more than 4% for the day and the Nasaq-100 ([NDX]) gained more than 1.5%. SOXX returned to a buy signal with yesterday’s action, breaking a double top at $640.
- Oil prices continued to slide falling below $70/bbl.
- SPX finished the quarter up nearly 15%. Technology stocks outpaced the broader market as NDX gained more than 27.5% and semiconductors were up almost 95%.
- Small caps outpaced large caps as the Russell 2000 ([RUT]) gained more than 21%.
- International equities also advanced during Q2, but it there was a wide spread between emerging & developed markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) was up more than 20%, while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EAFE]) gained a little under 7%.
- It was an unproductive quarter for commodities as gold ([GC/]) was down more than 13% while silver ([SI/]) dropped more than 20%. Gold and silver are now in negative territory for the year after silver was up more than 60% at its peak in January.
- Meanwhile, crude oil finished the quarter down roughly 31.5% giving back virtually all of the gains it saw at the beginning of the Iran conflict.
7/1/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - June 30, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – June 30, 2026.
- U.S. equity indices rebounded to kick off the week with the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) and Nasdaq Composite ([NASD]) leading the way to the upside with both gaining more than 2% on Monday (6/29). NDX and NASD, along with the Russell 1000 ([RUI]), saw reversals back into Xs on their default point and figure charts.
- Crude Oil ([CL/]) rallied more than 2% but ultimately saw no additional chart action as it remains in a column of Os, residing on a series of sell signals. Meanwhile, Gold ([GC/]) fell more than 1%, leading to a reversal into Os down to 4020 and placing another lower top on the chart – highlighting continued waning demand.
- While indices were positive, there were no major indicator changes, even within the short-term indicators. The NDW 40 sector 10-week indicators only saw changes to four of the 40 10-week charts with most highlighting decreases in stocks maintaining above the 50-day moving average. The distribution curve of the NDW 40 sector 10-week indicators maintains a normal distribution with no particular skew.
- Healthcare witnessed further gains within DALI, separating from financials within the sector rankings. The sector saw notable rallies within biotech stocks and funds with the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ([XBI]) pushing to multi-year highs in the upper $150s. The rally follows the market relative strength against the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ([SPXEWI]) returning to a to Xs during last week’s action, highlighting near-term relative strength for biotechs.
- Iridium Communications ([IRDM]) rallied more than 2% during Monday’s (6/29) trading session after news broke that RocketLabs ([RKLB]) would acquire the company. On the earnings front this morning, Aerovironment ([AVAV]) beat on earnings, raising its outlook and sending shares up more than 35% to the upper $180s. Nike ([NKE]) is due to report after the close.
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6/30/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - June 29, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – June 29, 2026.
- Crude Oil ([CL/]) and international equities led the way to the downside during Friday’s (6/26) trading session with crude falling more than 3.5%. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) fell more than 1%, while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) fell 59 basis points.
- U.S. Equity indices were mixed Friday (6/26) with the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) falling more than 1%, reversing down into Os on its default point and figure trend chart and leading the way to the downside. Indexes like the S&P 500 ([SPX]) and Russell 1000 ([RUI]) continued lower in their current column of Os, while the likes of the Russell 2000 ([RUT]), the Dow ([.DJIA]), and S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ([SPXEWI]) maintain near recent chart highs.
- While equity participation indicators witnessed little change following Friday’s trading, the end of last week brought about notable changes within the NDW DALI Sector Rankings. Healthcare climbed to the 3rd after Thursday’s (6/25) trading session, overtaking another recent improver within the ranks, Financials, and Communication Services, which has fallen out of the top three.
- Payroll and unemployment data this upcoming Thursday (7/2) highlight economic data for the week, while notable earnings come from Nike ([NKE]), FactSet ([FDS]), and General Mills ([GIS]).
- REMINDER: Tomorrow (6/30) marks the last day to enter the NDW Model Competition.
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6/29/26 View
Morning Pulse – June 26, 2026
- Markets were higher across the board Thursday, with the major exception coming from some of the market's largest companies. Apple fell 6.12% after increasing product prices across the board to keep up with memory prices. Meanwhile, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) fell 2.57%, and is now down 7.4% YTD, which is 24% lower than the Nasdaq-100.
- Memory chip companies continue to be some of the hottest companies in the market, with the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) rising another 10% on the day, led by a 15.74% gain from Micron Technologies (MU).
- The bulls are back in town. Among respondents to the AAII sentiment survey, 45% think the market will move higher over the next six months, compared to 35% who expect it to move lower, which is the most bullish reading in over two months.
- While bonds were relatively subdued on the day, the iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) moved to its first buy signal since August, flipping its trend back to positive. That said, fixed income remains unfavored at the bottom of DALI, and AGG holds a fund score of only 0.81.
- Momentum had another solid day, with iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) rising 3.32%. MTUM is now up more than 35% YTD, outpacing the S&P 500 by 28.1%, which would be the widest margin in favor of momentum stocks on record for a calendar year.
6/26/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse
- The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ([TLT]) was up 1.37% over the previous day and completed a spread triple top break on its default chart. The move signals strengthening performance in long-duration fixed income and suggests improving investor sentiment.
- The S&P 500 Equal Weight ([SPXEWI]) completed a bullish catapult earlier this month at 8550 and sits on three consecutive buy signals. Year-to-date, the equal-weighted benchmark is outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 ([SPX]) by more than 2%, underscoring the relative underperformance of mega-cap stocks and highlighting broader participation across the market.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average ([.DJIA]) completed a bullish catapult at 52000, marking its sixth consecutive buy signal. The index has steadily strengthened from its March lows, building an increasingly convincing technical case for continued improvement.
- The SPDR Gold Trust ([GLD]) continues to deteriorate technically. GLD completed a double bottom break at $370, marking its fourth consecutive sell signal. This deterioration is further reflected in its weak fund score of 2.38 and a negative score direction of 3.28.
- The healthcare sector has shown recent improvement, advancing above basic materials in our DALI sector rankings over the past week and moving into “equal-weight” territory. It now trails utilities and financials by just 2 and 7 signals, respectively, indicating a narrowing RS performance gap.
6/25/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse
- US equities were mostly lower on Tuesday (6/23). Technology stocks, specifically semiconductors, were among the largest decliners as the iShares Semiconductor ETF ([SOXX]) was down almost 8%.
- Tuesday’s action dropped SOXX out of heavily extended territory but even with the pullback, the fund still sits more than 10% from its most recent support at $530.
- Micron ([MU]) was largest decliner in the SOXX portfolio was it lost more than 13%. While ON Semiconductor ([ON]), ARM Holdings ([ARM]) and Credo Technology ([CRDO]) were all down more than 10%. MU will report earnings today after the close.
- The Dow ([.DJIA]) was the best performing among the major US indices as it was down only nine bps for the day. Small caps also outperformed large caps as the Russell 2000 ([RUT]) fell 96 bps, outperforming the S&P 500 ([SPX]) by about ½ percent.
- International equities saw significant declines. Developed markets held up better than their emerging counterpart as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) lost about 2% while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) fell more than 5.5%. South Korea was among the biggest losers internationally as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF ([EWY]) fell more than 12%.
- Precious metals – which are often viewed as a safe haven – were also down. Gold ([GC/]) was down about 1.25% while silver ([SI/]) fell more than 5%. Silver now sits at $61.50 on its P&F chart, matching its 2026 low.
- Long-term yields were down slightly which lifted US bonds – the iShares US Core Bond ETF ([AGG]) and the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ([TLT]) both notched small gains.
6/24/26 View
NDW Morning Update Video - June 23, 2026
Morning Highlights:
- Markets were largely mixed over the 6/22’s trading day. No area was up more than 1%. Small caps ([RUT]) were the largest gainer for the day, advancing .83%, followed by emerging markets ([EEM]) which gained just over half a percent. Crude oil slipped over 3.5%, trailed by the Nasdaq Composite which shed 1.32% for the day.
- In terms of notable chart action, gold moved lower yet again, encroaching on its bullish support line. The precious metals space continues to shed RS and broader exposure should be limited where possible.
- The US dollar returned to a buy signal on its chart but remains in a long-term negative trend. A weaker USD remains a tailwind for international equities.
- Communication services was led lower by Alphabet ([GOOGL], [GOOG]) yesterday as they lost a key AI member to Anthropic. Broad representative [XLC] moved back into O’s against cash on a 3.25% relative strength chart.
- While not visible on the charts as of 8:30AM on 6/23, overnight selloffs in South Korea have spread over to US tech markets. [EWY] is slipping over 10%, with [SOXX] slipping ~6% in premarket trading. Both assets are still up impressively this year and the decline day seems more of a symptom of a “normal” (but intense) exhale rather than something more concerning.
6/23/26 View
NDW Morning Update Video – May 29, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – May 29, 2026
We apologize for the delayed release, we were dealing with technical difficulties this morning.
5/29/26 View
NDW Morning Update Video - November 19, 2025
NDW Morning Update Video –November 19, 2025.
11/19/25 View
NDW Morning Update Video - October 22, 2025
NDW Morning Update Video –October 22, 2025.
10/22/25 View
