NDW Morning Pulse - August 5, 2026
8/5/26
NDW Morning Pulse - August 4, 2026
- It was an overwhelmingly productive day for most global equity markets yesterday, seeing growth focused areas in [NASD] & [RUT] lead the way to the upside. [NASD] picked up 2+%, while the Russell 2000 advanced just under 1.75% to reverse back higher on its default chart.
- The S&P 500 ([SPX]) picked up roughly 1.5%, returning to all-time chart highs after what has seemed like a rocky exhale to open Q3. The technical picture for SPX remains quite constructive, with some now solidified support around 7250-7350 on its default chart.
- With the productive day, [SPX] reversed back into X’s on its 1% Relative Strength chart against [SPXEWI], signaling an uptick in strength for cap-weighted assets. This chart has historically provided a consistent picture of strength, with either your RS Switching (owning whichever asset sits on a buy signal) or reversal portfolio (owning whichever asset sits in X’s) outperforming a buy and hold portfolio of either asset individually.
- The notable decliner for the day was crude, which slipped 5%. It got back down into the low $80’s/high $70’s, a point which has been an important line in the sand throughout 2026 amid conflict in the Iran. Watch this point closely to see if markets are pricing in further deescalation or a pick back up in tensions.
- Notable earnings: [CAT] picked up ~8% on productive results. It has fallen off its 2026 highs but remains a technically defendable asset. [PLTR] gained ~14% in premarket trading, but is still in the red for the year. Watch for a failed breakout after the report. [AMD] reports after close on 8/4. It trades off its respective highs but maintains its strong technical posturing ahead of the report. Watch $432 towards the downside and $460-$484 to the upside.
8/4/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - August 3, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – August 3, 2026.
- Indices were mixed following Friday’s (7/31) trading with Crude Oil ([CL/]) and Nasdaq Composite ([NASD]) up over 1%, followed by emerging markets ([EEM]), up 70 basis points. Gold ([GC/]) fell more than 1%, while developed markets ([EFA]) were down 62 basis points.
- Among the charts to see additional action was the iShares U.S. Core Bond ETF ([AGG]), which dropped below $97.25, along with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]), which reversed back into Xs from recent lows. U.S. equity charts like the S&P 500 ([SPX]) – along with others – reversed in Xs and rallied to the 10-week trading band during Friday’s (7/31) trading.
- After seeing reversal higher to begin last week’s action, many indicators, like the bullish percent for the S&P 500 ([^BPSPX]), maintain near recent reversal highs. ^BPSPX sits in the lower 60s currently, which has been a high point for the indicator for much of 2026.
- There are roughly 130+ S&P 500 stocks reporting earnings this week. Below are notable highlights of support and resistance.
- Palantir Technologies ([PLTR]) – Reports 8/3 – PLTR is a 1 for 5’er that moved into a negative trend in the latter part of June and gave a second sell signal early last week. Initial support lies at $118, while additional can be found at $108, the June 2026 chart low. A move above $128 would return the stock to a buy signal, while a move above $140 would flip the trend back to positive.
- Advanced Micro Devices ([AMD]) – Reports 8/4 – AMD fell to a 4 for 5’er after seeing the market RS chart reverse into Os early last week. The stock gave a second sell signal at $456 on 7/28 as shares fell to $432 before reversing back into Xs during the latter part of the week. Beyond current support at $432, additional can be found at $396. From here, it would take a move back toward highs in the upper $560s before seeing the stock return to a buy signal.
- Caterpillar ([CAT]) – Reports 8/4 – CAT fell to a 3 for 5’er after seeing the market and peer RS charts reverse down into Os during trading early last week. After reaching highs in June, the stock gave an initial sell signal to kick off July. Last week’s action brought about a third sell signal at $832 as shares fell to the upper $770s before climbing back above $800. Beyond initial support at $776, additional can be found at $760 and $712.
- CVS Health Corp. ([CVS]) – Reports 8/5 – CVS has been a 5 for 5’er since May of this year and currently ranks within the top quintile of the Retailing sector matrix. After a second buy signal in late June, CVS rallied to its highest level since early 2022 at $110. Last week’s action brought a reversal into Os from recent highs. Initial support lies at $98, while additional can be found at $90.
8/3/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 31, 2026
| Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 07/31. Access the the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page.
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7/31/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 30, 2026
- Major equity markets moved lower over the past trading day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ([.DJIA]) declining 2.19% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) falling 2.07%.
- The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ([XLK]) continues to trade well below its recent highs. Meanwhile, improving relative strength within the healthcare sector has allowed healthcare to reclaim a higher position than technology in our DALI sector rankings, signaling a shift toward more defensive leadership across the market.
- The Invesco QQQ Trust ([QQQ]) remains under pressure and has continued to trend lower. The ETF is now down approximately 10% from its recent peak, officially entering correction territory. Much of this weakness has been driven by ongoing deterioration in the technology sector.
- U.S. GDP growth came in below expectations, with consensus estimates calling for approximately 2.1% growth versus an actual reading of 1.5%. The softer-than-expected economic data could create additional headwinds for growth-oriented sectors in the months ahead.
- Apple ([AAPL]), Amazon ([AMZN]), and Coinbase Global ([COIN]) are among the most closely watched companies scheduled to report earnings after the market close. From a technical perspective, AAPL maintains a strong TA score of 5/5 and continues to trade on multiple buy signals. In contrast, both AMZN and COIN carry weaker technical profiles, each holding a TA score of 1/5.
7/30/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 20, 2026
- US equity futures are mixed this morning. S&P and Nasdaq futures are up around 20 bps while Dow futures are down about 30 bps.
- The S&P 500 was up 20 bps yesterday, the third day in a row of little movement as it gained two bps on Monday and five bps on Friday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 was down just under 1%, in its fifth consecutive down day. The iShares Semiconductor ETF ([SOXX]) was down 4.8% yesterday and is now down about 25% from the high it reached in June.
- Crude oil futures are up about 5% after falling 4% on Tuesday.
- International equities were lower on Tuesday as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) lost two bps while the iShares Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) was down 2%.
- The Fed wraps up its July meeting today. The futures market is pricing in about a 65% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged with a 35% chance of a 25 bps hike. This is most uncertainty we’ve had this close to a Fed meeting in some time.
- Meta ([META]) and Microsoft ([MSFT]) report earnings after the close today. Both are currently technically weak as Meta is a 1 for 5’er and MSFT is a 2 for 5’er, though both stocks have shown some improvement on their trend charts recently.
7/29/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 28, 2026
- Major names we typically look at were positive over yesterday’s roll. SPXEWI gained roughly .75% for the day, outperforming the cap weighted S&P 500 handedly as it was roughly flat for the day.
- Crude declined 7.5%. The Nasdaq 100 ([NDX]) fought back to nearly flat for the day after a somewhat wild trading session that saw it open positive, swinging sharply lower before drifting back towards even for the day. NDX trades on a string of three consecutive sell signals and its series of lower highs should be monitored very closely.
- Crude continues to flirt with an apparently important level in the low $80’s. It trades well off 2026 highs around $120…. But remains volatile and largely dependant on headline developments around the Middle East.
- Gold ([GC/]) and long-duration fixed income ([TLT]) moved higher yesterday, although both spaces remain points of relative weakness within their respective asset class.
- Many names have shown some interesting technical developments around earnings. [WYNN] returned to a buy signal but shows all the signs of a “failed breakout”- don’t be fooled by this low attribute name. [GLW] slumped nearly 20% in pre-market trading on 7/28 on weak guidance. [KO] picked up ~4% on strong guidance, it remains a technically appealing as it trades on a series of buy signals.
- Lots of names are reporting over the next few days. The likes of [AMZN], [META], [AAPL], [MSFT], [LRCX], [MA], etc. are all reporting on either 7/29 or 7/30. Watch the charts for further developments.
7/28/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 27, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 27, 2026.
- U.S. equities and other major indices were mixed following Friday’s (7/24) trading. While most U.S. equity charts saw no additional action, the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) gave a third consecutive sell signal intraday Friday.
- While equities were mixed, crude oil led the way to the downside, falling more than -3% Friday and reversing down into Os on its default point and figure chart. A reprieve in U.S.-Iran tensions over the weekend has given a boost to U.S. equities pre-market Monday (7/27), while crude oil has fallen into the mid $80s.
- Apart from the bullish percent for the Nasaq-100 ([^BPNDX]), most major and index-related bullish percent indicators reside within the mid-50s on their charts, still suggesting more than half of the stocks within those universes continue to maintain point and figure buy signals. When examining the NDW 40 sectors through the Distribution Curve tool on the site (Allocation Tab > Distribution Curves), technology subsectors witnessed the most notable shift into lower field position; highlighting a decrease in stocks maintaining buy signals. Financials subsectors like savings and loans, banks, and insurance continue to maintain the highest levels of upside participation.
- Roughly 170 S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week. Below are notable highlights of support and resistance levels for major names reporting.
- Visa ([V]) – Reports 7/28 – 3 for 5’er that broke out above resistance in the $350 range to kick of July. The stock has since consolidated around the $350 to $360 range with initial support now residing at $348. Additional support can be found at $324, the bullish support line, while the stock’s all-time chart high from June 2025 at $368 presents the only level of overhead resistance.
- Meta Platforms ([META] – Reports 7/29 – 1 for 5’er after shifting back into a positive trend to kick off July’s trading. META currently is trading around the $600 level, below its 50-day moving average, and just two boxes above the bullish support line at $584. Additional support is seen at $544, while resistance continues to be prevalent within the $680 range.
- Microsoft ([MSFT]) – Reports 7/29 – 2 for 5’er that shifted back into a positive trend in recent weeks following a second buy signal. The stock is currently testing the bullish support line at $380, while additional support can be found at $376 and $368. Resistance resides at $400, the recent rally high, while additional can be found in the upper $400 range.
- Apple ([AAPL]) – Reports 7/30 – 5 for 5’er following a recent reversal into Xs on the stock’s peer relative strength chart. The stock reversed back into Xs on its default trend chart last Friday (7/24) to match the all-time chart high at $332. Initial support lies at $320, while additional support can be found at $276 and $260, the bullish support line.
- Amazon ([AMZN]) – Reports 7/30 – 1 for 5’er that shafted into a negative trend and returned to a sell signal following Friday's (7/24) trading. Support for the stock now resides at $228, while additional can be found at $200. A move above $260 would flip the trend back to positive and return the stock to a buy signal.
7/27/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 24, 2026
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7/24/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 23, 2026
- Crude Oil ([CL/]) led yesterday’s performance, advancing 2.95%, followed by Gold ([GC/]), which gained 1.85%. Despite the strong daily gains, both assets remain well below the highs reached earlier this year.
- The Nasdaq Composite ([NASD]) completed a double bottom breakdown at 25,400, generating its second consecutive sell signal. Even so, the index remains up by double digits year to date and is currently trading near an area of initial support.
- The S&P 500 Index ([SPX]) remains on a sell signal following its double bottom breakdown at 7,300. Despite the technical weakness, the index ranks 3rd out of 134 asset groups on the Asset Class Group Scores page, underscoring its relative strength versus the broader universe.
- The Technology sector continues to experience technical deterioration. Within our DALI sector rankings, the sector has lost 13 signals over the past week, highlighting a rapid decline in underlying technical conditions. Nevertheless, Technology remains firmly in second place and maintains a comfortable lead over the third-ranked Healthcare sector.
- This week’s featured report revisits Monday’s feature, “Technology: Extreme Volatility, Normal Correction.” The analysis examines the recent volatility across the technology sector, explores the magnitude and frequency of historical drawdowns, and provides context for how current market conditions compare with past corrections.
7/23/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 22, 2026
- US equity futures are lower this morning. Nasdaq-100 futures are leading the market lower, down around 1%.
- Tuesday was a strong day for stocks across the board as US and international indices were higher.
- The S&P 500 was up 89 bps. Technology led the market higher as the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) gained 1.93% while the iShares Semiconductor ETF ([SOXX]) was up 5.45%. SOXX is still down more than 13% over the last 30 days.
- Small caps outperformed as the Russell 2000 ([RUT]) was up more than 1.5%.
- The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) gained more than 2.8% while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) gained 1.45%.
- Crude oil has continued to advance as it gained more than 2.25% yesterday and is up more than 3% pre-market, trading around $87/bbl as the market continues to digest renewed tension in the Middle East.
- Precious metals advanced on Tuesday despite rising yields as silver ([SI/]) gained 3.7% and gold ([GC/]) climbed 1.65%. Silver traded above $60 overnight which should return it to a buy signal on its default point & figure chart. Meanwhile, gold is trading above $4100, which would return it to a buy signal also. Gold has now established notable support at $3980, reversing up from that level three times since last month.
- We get the first Mag 7 earnings releases of the quarter this afternoon as Tesla ([TSLA]) and Alphabet ([GOOGL]) are set to report. Both stocks are currently acceptable 3 for 5’ers.
7/22/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 21, 2026
- Most of the names we typically look at were negative over the last 24 hours. Towards the upside, crude oil jumped just under 1%, joined by the US Dollar and emerging markets representative ([EEM]) in the green.
- Most other names were negative, albeit relatively muted in their decline. EFA and TLT led the way, each declining ~.75% for the day.
- Major chart action was limited. Crude oil ([CL/]) notched an additional two X’s on its default chart. While the path of least resistance is lower, it is encroaching on a significant level of old support in the upper $80’s. Continue to watch headlines out of the Middle East for further development conflict wise. TLT reversed lower, now sitting within earshot of 2026 lows.
- Major earnings came from the likes of [MMM], which moved ~5% higher in premarket trading. It remains a low attribute name but trades in an interesting position well off 2026 lows. [NOC] declined after its report, moving lower towards 2026 lows. It remains a ow attribute name and is an area to avoid despite continued global unrest.
- GOOGL [GOOG] reports tomorrow, the first of the mega-cap big tech to do so. While still in the black for the year, it trades off highs and has put in a series of lower highs on its default chart. Keep a close eye on newly established resistance towards the middle of the trading band.
7/21/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 20, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – July 20, 2026.
- Crude Oil ([CL/]) led the way to the upside Friday (7/17) gaining more than 3% for the day and moving into the lower $80s on the point and figure trend chart. This follows the commodity returning to a buy signal early last week, and investors will see if crude sustains rallies over the weekend that saw the commodity touch the $90 range.
- U.S. equities were negative and led to the downside by the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) and Nasdaq Composite ([NASD]) as each fell more than 1% for the day and saw the indices give second sell signals. NDX broke a spread quadruple bottom at 28,800 and fell to 28,400, violating support in the upper 28,000 range and brings the index to its lowest level since May. NASD continues to maintain support in the 25,000 range as the index has consolidated since June.
- Emerging markets were down more than 1% with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) dropping to $63 on the point and figure chart, giving a sell signal at $64 and completing a bullish signal reversal pattern. This follows the ETF reversing into Os on its market relative strength chart early last week, which has brought the ETF’s fund score down to 3.75 (out of 6).
- Major market bullish percents continue to maintain recent chart levels, though subsectors like semiconductors, computers, and electronics witnessed notable drops in their BP charts, suggesting a decrease in stocks maintaining point and figure buy signals.
- Twenty-four out of the roughly 100 stocks within the S&P 100 Index ([OEX]) will be reporting earnings this week. Below are notable highlights.
- Capital One Financial ([COF]) – Reports 7/21 – 3 for 5’er that completed a second buy signal last week, clearing resistance at $208 that dated back to February. Resistance now lies near highs at $256, while support can be found at $192 and $180, the bullish support line.
- General Motors ([GM]) – Reports 7/21 – 3 for 5’er trading in the mid $70s after violating the bullish support line and shifting into a negative trend to finish off June. A move above $81 would shift the trend back to positive, but notable resistance can be found in the mid $80s. Beyond current support at $75 additional can be found at $71.
- Google ([GOOGL]) – Reports 7/22 – 3 for 5’er that gave a second sell signal during Friday’s (7/17) trading at $348 as shares fell to $344. This follows the stock reversing down into Os on its peer relative strength chart earlier last week. Beyond near-term support at $332, investors are looking to the upper $200 range before the next available level of support.
- Tesla ([TSLA]) – Reports 7/22 – 3 for 5’er that returned to a sell signal by breaking a triple bottom at $388, which also violated the bullish support line and shifted the trend to negative. From here, a move above $416 would return the stock to a buy signal and shift the trend back to positive. Initial support can be found in the $368 to $372 range, while additional lies at $340.
- American Express Company ([AXP]) – Reports 7/24 – 4 for 5’er that returned to a buy signal early last week at $360. Note resistance at $368, while the stock’s chart high resides at $384. Initial support lies at $336, while the bullish support line can be found at $328.
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7/20/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 17, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse - July 17, 2026
- Thursday was an extremely positive breadth day. Despite the S&P 500 ([SPX]) falling 0.51%, the equal weight S&P 500 ([SPXEWI]) rose 1%. That’s just the 3rd time in the last five years the equal weight index has beaten cap weight index by such a wide margin.
- The market was dragged down by the technology sector, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF ([XLK]) falling 2.24%. The sector is in correction territory with it 10% off ATHs but still holds a favorable fund score of 4.83.
- Memory chips were previously an area of extreme strength but have led the way to the downside over the past month. The Roundhill Memory ETF ([DRAM]) fell a further 8.82% and is now more than 35% off ATHs as companies like Micron ([MU]) pullback.
- Small caps have quietly been one of the best performing groups recently, especially small cap value stocks. The iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF ([IWN]) rose 1.31% on Thursday, bringing its one-month return to 3.7%, which is 3.4% higher than the S&P 500.
- Among small cap value stocks, regional banks have been leading the way to the upside. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF ([KRE]) rose 2.82% yesterday, moving to its fourth consecutive buy signal while holding an extremely strong 5.55 fund score.
7/17/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 16, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – July 16, 2026.
- Crude Oil ([CL/]) and Gold ([GC/]) reversed back up this week, highlighting some near-term strength. Despite the recovery, both commodities remain well below the highs reached earlier this year.
- Looking at the DALI sector rankings, Technology still sits in first with 199 signals. However, the sector has lost 35 signals so far in July, suggesting some emerging weakness in recent weeks.
- The Financials sector has continued to strengthen over the past several weeks. Since the beginning of June, the sector has added 36 signals and climbed into fourth place in the sector rankings.
- The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting currently stands at 54.5%, indicating that a rate increase remains the most likely outcome.
- This week's featured analysis is Monday's Sector P/E Valuation Ratio report, which breaks down the P/E ratios across all 11 major sectors to identify the key factors driving sector performance.
7/16/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 15, 2026
- US equity futures are higher this morning, getting a boost from a lower than expected PPI reading.
- Stocks and bonds were up yesterday (6/14) as a lower-than-expected CPI reading led yields lower.
- The market is still pricing in about an 80% chance of a rate hike this year but has backed off expectations for an increase this month which climbed above 40% on Monday.
- The Nadaq-100 ([NDX]) led the major indices higher gaining 1.1% while the S&P 500 advanced 40 bps.
- The iShares Semiconductor ETF ([SOXX]) was up more than 2.5%
- A down day for the dollar helped push international equities higher as the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) gained 1.8% while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) added 70 bps.
- Falling yields also aided precious metals as silver ([SI/]) gained almost 2% while gold ([GC/]) was up more than 1.5%.
- Crude oil ([CL/]) advanced for a second day, gaining about 1.5% as the market continued to digest the prospect of renewed conflict in the Middle East.
- International Business Machines ([IBM]) had its worst day ever on Tuesday falling 25% after the company released earnings a week early and showed misses on revenue and profit.
- Most of the big banks reported earnings yesterday. Goldman Sachs ([GS]) was biggest winner gaining 9% and reaching a new all-time high. JP Morgan ([JPM]) and Bank of America ([BAC]) also advanced. Citigroup ([C]) was worst performer, falling more than 5% while Wells Fargo ([WFC]) was down more than 2.5%.
7/15/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 14, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 14, 2026.
- Most of the major areas we typically look at in the morning calls were negative with trading on 7/13. Of note were emerging markets ([EEM]) which declined nearly 4% on the day, followed by gold and the Nasdaq composite which each slipped over 1.5%.
- Crude was the main gainer as it jumped almost 10% as tensions in the Middle East escalated yet again…. But it continues to trade below a seemingly key level around $80. A journey back above that point could signal markets pricing in further unrest.
- Gold continues to shed RS, falling back down into O’s to trade within earshot of 2026 lows. Despite just trading around levels from late in 2025, the technical picture has deteriorated significantly and precious metals exposure should be limited when possible.
- You might find yourself traveling more often this summer, but there was a significant break to the downside for Hilton. The trendline break will push Hilton ([HLT]) down to a 4/5’er, so it remains strong but those with positions should watch the name carefully for further technical weakness.
- The likes of [JPM], [BAC], [WFC], [GS], etc. got the big banks earnings started up on the morning of 7/14. Initial results/reactions were fair-productive as of early pre-market movement on Tuesday morning. Many of the “blue-blood” banks maintain strong technical pictures. Broad financials, as evidenced by [XLF], remain technically defendable as we move through July… but the sector remains far from a standout leader at the time of this writing.
7/14/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 13, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – July 13, 2026.
- Most U.S. equity indices were positive Friday (7/10) with the S&P 500 Index ([SPX]) up 42 basis points, while the Russell 2000 Index ([RUT]) was the lone index in negative territory, down 49 basis points. The only index charts to see additional action were the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]), which moved above 29800 to form a double top, and the Russell 1000 ([RUI]), which reversed back into Xs to 4120.
- Broader market indicators were muted following Friday’s (7/10) trading, but a short-term indicator worth noting is the Weekly Distribution for NYSE Stocks ([^WDNYSE]). The indicator measures the average overbought/oversold reading and resides at 0% on the chart. This highlights the average weekly distribution reading is neither overbought or oversold and notes that on average, stocks have come back to the middle of the 10-week (50-day) trading band.
- Delta ([DAL]) beat on Q2 earnings and reinstated its full-year guidance. Fuel costs and capacity cuts provided downbeat price action as the chart reversed down into Os following Friday’s (7/10) trading.
- Bank earnings will take center stage this week, but below are names reporting this week worth monitoring due to recent chart action.
- Wells Fargo ([WFC]) – Reports 7/14 - 3 for 5’er that gave a second buy signal during last week’s trading but has rallied to resistance in the upper $80s. Initial support can be found in the $82 to $83 range, while the bullish support line sits at $77.
- BlackRock ([BLK]) – Reports 7/15 – 3 for 5’er after seeing a second sell signal and shift to a negative trend to finish off June’s trading. From here, a move above 1088 would return the stock to a buy signal and flip the trend back to positive. Support lies in the $928 to $960 range.
- United Airlines ([UAL]) – Reports 7/16 – 4 for 5’er that has been consolidating since reaching a new chart high at $138 at the end of June. Initial support lies at $122, while additional can be found at $116.
- Netflix ([NFLX]) – Reports 7/16 – Though the stock returned to a buy signal to kick of July’s trading, last week’s action brought the chart back into Os and into the lower $70s, near reach lows. Beyond recent lows, a move into the $60 range would mark the lowest level since late 2024.
- UnitedHealth Group ([UNH]) – Reports 7/16 – UNH has improved to a 5 for 5’er and rallied to a 52-week high during last week’s trading. From here, resistance on the chart isn’t found until the $600 range, while initial support can be found at $376 and $360.
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7/13/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 10, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 10, 2026.
- Most areas of the investable universe were positive throughout trading on 7/9. Of particular note was gold (which remains a point of relative weakness despite the up day), the Nasdaq Composite and small caps via [RUT]. The S&P 500 gained just under .9% for the day.
- Downside action was rather limited. Crude slipped ~2% as it reversed lower on its default chart, and the US Dollar found itself down just 9 basis points. Barring further escalation in the Middle East, crude looks to be finding its footing in the mid $70’s to upper $60’s.
- Technology and industrials have struggled so far this quarter, seeing representatives [XLK] and [XLI] as the worst performing sectors since 6/30. While one week doesn’t make or break a trend, continued underperformance from these leaders will be important to monitor throughout 2026.
- ^BPNDX, measuring the percentage of Nasdaq-100 stocks trading on buy signals, moved higher yesterday to a chart reading of 58%. While we certainly won’t turn our nose at any expansion of breadth, it’s no secret that participation remains well off highwater marks from 2024 and 2025.
- With its productive day, gold reversed higher on its chart…. But don’t buy into the “fool’s gold” just quite yet. It continues to trade at/around 2026 lows after recently breaking back into a negative trend.
7/10/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 9, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 9, 2026.
- Crude Oil (CL/) was up 4.37% through yesterday's close. Although still up almost 30% year-to-date, the contract has down well below its all-time highs from earlier this year.
- Emerging markets also ticked higher over the past day. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) sits on six consecutive buy signals and is up over 20% YTD.
- Since the healthcare sector moved to overweight territory two weeks ago in our DALI sector rankings, the sector has continued to tick higher, gaining 9 signals this month alone. Consumer staples have also gained 9 signals this month, as more defensive areas of the market continue to show strength.
- The percent positive for the healthcare sector ([^PTECHEALTH]) also crossed back up above 30% in its chart level for the second time since late 2021, highlighting an increase in long-term strength for the sector as a larger percentage of stocks are now contributing to the upside.
- Fed funds futures imply a 64.1% chance of a rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, suggesting that market participants increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
7/9/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 9, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 9, 2026.
- Crude Oil (CL/) was up 4.37% through yesterday's close. Although still up almost 30% year-to-date, the contract has down well below its all-time highs from earlier this year.
- Emerging markets also ticked higher over the past day. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) sits on six consecutive buy signals and is up over 20% YTD.
- Since the healthcare sector moved to overweight territory two weeks ago in our DALI sector rankings, the sector has continued to tick higher, gaining 9 signals this month alone. Consumer staples have also gained 9 signals this month, as more defensive areas of the market continue to show strength.
- The percent positive for the healthcare sector ([^PTECHEALTH]) also crossed back up above 30% in its chart level for the second time since late 2021, highlighting an increase in long-term strength for the sector as a larger percentage of stocks are now contributing to the upside.
- Fed funds futures imply a 64.1% chance of a rate hike at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, suggesting that market participants increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
7/9/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 8, 2026
- Futures are again lower this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way to the downside – down around 1.1%. Gold and silver are also lower.
- Oil futures are up about 5% after Iran attacked ships in the strait of Hormuz and the US launched a new wave attacks.
- US equities were down yesterday as the S&P 500 fell 0.45%.
- Tech led the market lower with the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) down 1.75%. Meanwhile, the iShares Semiconductors ETF ([SOXX]) was down more than 5%.
- NDX now sits against notable support at 29,000 on its default chart.
- International equities were also lower on Tuesday as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) fell 1.25% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) dropped 2.75%.
- Bonds were also lower on Tuesday with the iShares US Core Bond ETF ([AGG]) down about 45 bps as long-term US Treasury yields rose.
- Minutes from the last Fed meeting will be released this afternoon and could impact expectations for interest rates. At this point, the market is still pricing in about an 85% chance that the Fed will raise rates this year and about a 45% chance of two 25 bps hikes.
- SpaceX ([SPCX]) was added to the Nasdaq-100 yesterday with a weight of around 1.3%. The passive demand didn’t help the stock in the short-term as SPCX finished the day down more than 6.5%.
7/8/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 7, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – July 7, 2026.
- Markets pushed higher to start the week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.72% on Monday. Meanwhile, the "average stock," represented by the S&P 500 equal weight index, was relatively flat. Still, SPX remains on a sell signal, while SPXEWI completed its fourth consecutive buy signal last week.
- Technology was one of the day’s biggest winners, seeing the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rise 1.67%. Technology continues to sit at the top of DALI's sector rankings, but XLK lost its near-term market relative strength last week.
- Cryptocurrencies also lifted off on Monday, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) rising 3.58%, leaving the fund 10% above its late-June lows. That said, Bitcoin continues to lack long-term strength, demonstrated by IBIT’s weak fund score of just 0.18.
- Financials continued their recent hot streak, with banks leading the group higher. The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) rose 1.92% on the day, and improvement within the subgroup has caused KBWB's fund score to increase to 5.70. The broader financials sector also climbed to fourth in DALI's rankings near the end of Q1.
- Commercial airlines have quietly been among the market’s best-performing areas, and Monday saw the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) rise another 0.42%. With fuel prices starting to creep down and strength returning, its fund score is also up to a near-perfect 5.82.
7/7/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 6, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – July 6, 2026.
- U.S. and international equities were mixed Thursday (7/2), though most finished the week positive.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average ([.DJIA]) led the way to the upside, up 1% Thursday, as the index rallied near 53,000, while the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) led to the way to the downside, down 1.6%. NDX, along with the Russell 2000 ([RUT]), reversed into Os on their default point and figure trend chart, but both continue to maintain buy signals.
- A notable divergence within international markets Thursday with the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) leading all indices, up 1.3%, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EMM]) fell more than 1%. EEM’s chart continued lower in its current column of Os on its default point and figure chart, forming a double bottom and potential sell signal for the first time in 12 months or more.
- After seeing the bullish percent for the S&P 500 ([^BPSPX]) reverse into Xs on the first trading day of July, the long-term positive trend for the large cap index [^PTSPX] returned to bull confirmed status for the first time since late 2024. In addition to highlighting a slight increase in large cap stocks maintaining buy signals, the ^PT’s move higher shows stocks are also seeing trends change back to positive.
- This week will kick off the beginning stages of Q2 earnings season with the likes of Pepsi ([PEP]) and Delta Air Lines ([DAL]) reporting this Thursday (7/9) and Friday (7/10).
- South Korean chip maker, SK Hynix, announced Monday (7/6) it will be listing ADRs on Nasdaq.
- Fed minutes are due to be released this coming Wednesday (7/8).
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7/6/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 2, 2026
- The market-cap-weighted S&P 500 ([SPX]) pulled back modestly over the past week but remains up roughly 9% year-to-date. Performance continues to trail the equal-weighted S&P 500 ([SPXEWI]) by more than 2 percentage points, reflecting ongoing strength in the average stock relative to the index’s largest constituents.
- The Russell 2000 ([RUT]) has completed three consecutive buy signals and is now up approximately 21% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points in 2026. This strength is also evident in our Asset Class Group Scores, where multiple small-cap groups rank above the 90th percentile, underscoring the significant improvement in small-cap leadership this year.
- Within our DALI Sector Rankings, Health Care added 50 signals during June, advancing to third place and firmly into overweight territory. The sector’s rise has coincided with notable weakness in Energy, which saw its signal count decline by roughly 50% over the course of the month.
- The market is currently assigning a greater than 50% probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ([TLT]) recently completed a double-bottom breakout above $85.75, a move that comes as Treasury yields start to trend higher entering the second half of the year.
- This week’s featured research piece highlights our Smart Beta Quilts, which track factor performance across a variety of market segments. Within U.S. equities, Growth and Momentum have reestablished themselves as the leading factors, currently occupying the top spots in the rankings.
7/2/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - July 1, 2026
- US equities were up for a second day in a row yesterday as the S&P 500 ([SPX]) gained 80 bps to finish the quarter on a positive note.
- Technology once again outpaced the broader market as the iShares Semiconductors ETF ([SOXX]) was up more than 4% for the day and the Nasaq-100 ([NDX]) gained more than 1.5%. SOXX returned to a buy signal with yesterday’s action, breaking a double top at $640.
- Oil prices continued to slide falling below $70/bbl.
- SPX finished the quarter up nearly 15%. Technology stocks outpaced the broader market as NDX gained more than 27.5% and semiconductors were up almost 95%.
- Small caps outpaced large caps as the Russell 2000 ([RUT]) gained more than 21%.
- International equities also advanced during Q2, but it there was a wide spread between emerging & developed markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) was up more than 20%, while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EAFE]) gained a little under 7%.
- It was an unproductive quarter for commodities as gold ([GC/]) was down more than 13% while silver ([SI/]) dropped more than 20%. Gold and silver are now in negative territory for the year after silver was up more than 60% at its peak in January.
- Meanwhile, crude oil finished the quarter down roughly 31.5% giving back virtually all of the gains it saw at the beginning of the Iran conflict.
7/1/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - June 30, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – June 30, 2026.
- U.S. equity indices rebounded to kick off the week with the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) and Nasdaq Composite ([NASD]) leading the way to the upside with both gaining more than 2% on Monday (6/29). NDX and NASD, along with the Russell 1000 ([RUI]), saw reversals back into Xs on their default point and figure charts.
- Crude Oil ([CL/]) rallied more than 2% but ultimately saw no additional chart action as it remains in a column of Os, residing on a series of sell signals. Meanwhile, Gold ([GC/]) fell more than 1%, leading to a reversal into Os down to 4020 and placing another lower top on the chart – highlighting continued waning demand.
- While indices were positive, there were no major indicator changes, even within the short-term indicators. The NDW 40 sector 10-week indicators only saw changes to four of the 40 10-week charts with most highlighting decreases in stocks maintaining above the 50-day moving average. The distribution curve of the NDW 40 sector 10-week indicators maintains a normal distribution with no particular skew.
- Healthcare witnessed further gains within DALI, separating from financials within the sector rankings. The sector saw notable rallies within biotech stocks and funds with the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ([XBI]) pushing to multi-year highs in the upper $150s. The rally follows the market relative strength against the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ([SPXEWI]) returning to a to Xs during last week’s action, highlighting near-term relative strength for biotechs.
- Iridium Communications ([IRDM]) rallied more than 2% during Monday’s (6/29) trading session after news broke that RocketLabs ([RKLB]) would acquire the company. On the earnings front this morning, Aerovironment ([AVAV]) beat on earnings, raising its outlook and sending shares up more than 35% to the upper $180s. Nike ([NKE]) is due to report after the close.
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6/30/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse - June 29, 2026
NDW Morning Pulse – June 29, 2026.
- Crude Oil ([CL/]) and international equities led the way to the downside during Friday’s (6/26) trading session with crude falling more than 3.5%. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) fell more than 1%, while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) fell 59 basis points.
- U.S. Equity indices were mixed Friday (6/26) with the Nasdaq-100 ([NDX]) falling more than 1%, reversing down into Os on its default point and figure trend chart and leading the way to the downside. Indexes like the S&P 500 ([SPX]) and Russell 1000 ([RUI]) continued lower in their current column of Os, while the likes of the Russell 2000 ([RUT]), the Dow ([.DJIA]), and S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ([SPXEWI]) maintain near recent chart highs.
- While equity participation indicators witnessed little change following Friday’s trading, the end of last week brought about notable changes within the NDW DALI Sector Rankings. Healthcare climbed to the 3rd after Thursday’s (6/25) trading session, overtaking another recent improver within the ranks, Financials, and Communication Services, which has fallen out of the top three.
- Payroll and unemployment data this upcoming Thursday (7/2) highlight economic data for the week, while notable earnings come from Nike ([NKE]), FactSet ([FDS]), and General Mills ([GIS]).
- REMINDER: Tomorrow (6/30) marks the last day to enter the NDW Model Competition.
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6/29/26 View
Morning Pulse – June 26, 2026
- Markets were higher across the board Thursday, with the major exception coming from some of the market's largest companies. Apple fell 6.12% after increasing product prices across the board to keep up with memory prices. Meanwhile, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) fell 2.57%, and is now down 7.4% YTD, which is 24% lower than the Nasdaq-100.
- Memory chip companies continue to be some of the hottest companies in the market, with the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) rising another 10% on the day, led by a 15.74% gain from Micron Technologies (MU).
- The bulls are back in town. Among respondents to the AAII sentiment survey, 45% think the market will move higher over the next six months, compared to 35% who expect it to move lower, which is the most bullish reading in over two months.
- While bonds were relatively subdued on the day, the iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) moved to its first buy signal since August, flipping its trend back to positive. That said, fixed income remains unfavored at the bottom of DALI, and AGG holds a fund score of only 0.81.
- Momentum had another solid day, with iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) rising 3.32%. MTUM is now up more than 35% YTD, outpacing the S&P 500 by 28.1%, which would be the widest margin in favor of momentum stocks on record for a calendar year.
6/26/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse
- The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ([TLT]) was up 1.37% over the previous day and completed a spread triple top break on its default chart. The move signals strengthening performance in long-duration fixed income and suggests improving investor sentiment.
- The S&P 500 Equal Weight ([SPXEWI]) completed a bullish catapult earlier this month at 8550 and sits on three consecutive buy signals. Year-to-date, the equal-weighted benchmark is outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 ([SPX]) by more than 2%, underscoring the relative underperformance of mega-cap stocks and highlighting broader participation across the market.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average ([.DJIA]) completed a bullish catapult at 52000, marking its sixth consecutive buy signal. The index has steadily strengthened from its March lows, building an increasingly convincing technical case for continued improvement.
- The SPDR Gold Trust ([GLD]) continues to deteriorate technically. GLD completed a double bottom break at $370, marking its fourth consecutive sell signal. This deterioration is further reflected in its weak fund score of 2.38 and a negative score direction of 3.28.
- The healthcare sector has shown recent improvement, advancing above basic materials in our DALI sector rankings over the past week and moving into “equal-weight” territory. It now trails utilities and financials by just 2 and 7 signals, respectively, indicating a narrowing RS performance gap.
6/25/26 View
NDW Morning Pulse
- US equities were mostly lower on Tuesday (6/23). Technology stocks, specifically semiconductors, were among the largest decliners as the iShares Semiconductor ETF ([SOXX]) was down almost 8%.
- Tuesday’s action dropped SOXX out of heavily extended territory but even with the pullback, the fund still sits more than 10% from its most recent support at $530.
- Micron ([MU]) was largest decliner in the SOXX portfolio was it lost more than 13%. While ON Semiconductor ([ON]), ARM Holdings ([ARM]) and Credo Technology ([CRDO]) were all down more than 10%. MU will report earnings today after the close.
- The Dow ([.DJIA]) was the best performing among the major US indices as it was down only nine bps for the day. Small caps also outperformed large caps as the Russell 2000 ([RUT]) fell 96 bps, outperforming the S&P 500 ([SPX]) by about ½ percent.
- International equities saw significant declines. Developed markets held up better than their emerging counterpart as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF ([EFA]) lost about 2% while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ([EEM]) fell more than 5.5%. South Korea was among the biggest losers internationally as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF ([EWY]) fell more than 12%.
- Precious metals – which are often viewed as a safe haven – were also down. Gold ([GC/]) was down about 1.25% while silver ([SI/]) fell more than 5%. Silver now sits at $61.50 on its P&F chart, matching its 2026 low.
- Long-term yields were down slightly which lifted US bonds – the iShares US Core Bond ETF ([AGG]) and the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ([TLT]) both notched small gains.
6/24/26 View
NDW Morning Update Video - June 23, 2026
Morning Highlights:
- Markets were largely mixed over the 6/22’s trading day. No area was up more than 1%. Small caps ([RUT]) were the largest gainer for the day, advancing .83%, followed by emerging markets ([EEM]) which gained just over half a percent. Crude oil slipped over 3.5%, trailed by the Nasdaq Composite which shed 1.32% for the day.
- In terms of notable chart action, gold moved lower yet again, encroaching on its bullish support line. The precious metals space continues to shed RS and broader exposure should be limited where possible.
- The US dollar returned to a buy signal on its chart but remains in a long-term negative trend. A weaker USD remains a tailwind for international equities.
- Communication services was led lower by Alphabet ([GOOGL], [GOOG]) yesterday as they lost a key AI member to Anthropic. Broad representative [XLC] moved back into O’s against cash on a 3.25% relative strength chart.
- While not visible on the charts as of 8:30AM on 6/23, overnight selloffs in South Korea have spread over to US tech markets. [EWY] is slipping over 10%, with [SOXX] slipping ~6% in premarket trading. Both assets are still up impressively this year and the decline day seems more of a symptom of a “normal” (but intense) exhale rather than something more concerning.
6/23/26 View
NDW Morning Update Video – May 29, 2026
NDW Morning Update Video – May 29, 2026
We apologize for the delayed release, we were dealing with technical difficulties this morning.
5/29/26 View
NDW Morning Update Video - November 19, 2025
NDW Morning Update Video –November 19, 2025.
11/19/25 View
NDW Morning Update Video - October 22, 2025
NDW Morning Update Video –October 22, 2025.
10/22/25 View
