As of March 30th, we will no longer publish the weekly VictoryShares ETF report. Additionally, the VictoryShares Equity Rotation Model (VSROTATION) and VictoryShares Equity Select Model (VSSELECT) will no longer exist on the NDW Research Platform. The models successfully remained on our platform for over two years and were designed to seek a variety of outcomes, including maximum diversification, dividend income, and downside mitigation, so for those currently following or seeking to follow either of the strategies, see below for an outlined review of the underlying methodology.

VSROTATION always seeks to identify major themes in the US equity market by staying fully invested in two of the six VictoryShares ETFs. A relative strength matrix (2.00 scale) is used to compare and rank the inventory of ETFs to determine inclusion. The strategy is reviewed at the beginning of every month and positions are only sold when they fall sufficiently out of favor (third or lower). The last trade for this portfolio happened in November of 2020, where the VictoryShares US Small Cap Volatility Wtd ETF (CSA) reentered the model to join the VictoryShares US Small Cap High Dividend 100 Volatility Wtd ETF (CSB). VSROTATION returned just shy of 28% in 2020, outperforming SPX by about 9.5%. VSROTATION is also off to a strong start in 2021 with a YTD return of 18.30% (through 3/22). Click here for the full info file.

VSSELECT also seeks to identify major themes in the US equity market by staying fully invested in three VictoryShares ETFs. A relative strength matrix is used to rank the inventory members, but unlike VSROTATION, VSSELECT overweights the top position at 40% and the remaining two receive an equal weighting of 30%. Upon a monthly evaluation, if a position within the model falls or appreciates more than 5% beyond its target weight, the portfolio will rebalance. The last trade for this strategy also happened in November of 2020 when the VictoryShares US 500 Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF (CFO) received the overweight. VSSELECT returned 13.73% in 2020 and currently posts a YTD return of 8.76%, outpacing the S&P 500 (SPX) by over 3.5%. Click here for the full info file.

If you have any questions or concerns on these models, please give us a call at 804-320-8511 or email us at dwa@dorseywright.com.

This weekly overview is designed to be used as a "radar" screen to bring your attention to potentially important technical changes that may require your attention and potential action. When evaluating the Fund Score, the strongest issues have scores of 4 or higher while those ETFs with scores below a 3 are no longer considered solid citizens.

This section of the report categorizes all of the Victory Mutual Funds by their respective broad group. Along with each group, you can view the Average Group Score, which is an average of the scores of all funds represented in that particular group. Those Victory Mutual Funds that meet or exceed the Average Group Score will be highlighted in green in order to easily view those Victory Mutual Funds that have superior strength within their respective group. You want to focus on those Victory Mutual Funds that exhibit superior strength when looking to add new exposure to a particular group.

The distribution curve places each ETF on a bell curve according to their respective degrees of overbought or oversold status using a 10-week distribution. ETFs that are statistically oversold will appear on the left-hand side of the bell curve, while those that have become statistically overbought will appear on the right-hand side of the bell curve. Perhaps the most useful attribute of this feature is that it displays the entire universe on the curve at one time to give us a general picture of whether the Victory ETF universe is generally overbought on a near-term basis, or generally oversold. Our best opportunities are to buy strong relative strength ETFs that have regressed back toward mean conditions based on market weakness, or have become oversold based upon extreme market weakness. Weekly Distribution is a short-term gauge that is most helpful in timing entry and exit points, while the longer-term information of trend and relative strength is a more controlling factor in the decision of whether to buy or sell.

Average Level

35.09

								CSB
								VSDA
							USVM	CSF
							CIZ	VSMV
							CIL	ULVM
						CEZ	CFO	UIVM		CDL
	uitb		ustb			UEVM	CFA	CEY	CSA	CID
<--100	-100--80	-80--60	-60--40	-40--20	-20-0	0-20	20-40	40-60	60-80	80-100	100->

VictoryShares ETF Models

The VictoryShares ETF Models are designed to identify major themes in the US equity marketplace through the use of the Point & Figure relative strength tools. For more information on the portfolio construction and backtesting, see the model info file on the models page.

Weekly Changes: 

* Dates prior to 09/04/2018, which is when the VictoryShares Rotation Model became available on the Dorsey Wright Research Platform are representative of when the position was added to the backtested model

* Dates prior to 09/04/2018, which is when the VictoryShares Select Model became available on the Dorsey Wright Research Platform are representative of when the position was added to the backtested model.