Gasoline fell back into a negative trend this week.
Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email will.gibson@nasdaq.com.
Data represented in the table below is through 5/7/2024:
Broad Market Commodities Report
Portfolio View - Commodity Indices
| Symbol | Name | Price | PnF Trend | RS Signal | RS Col. | 200 Day MA | Weekly Mom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL/ | Crude Oil Continuous | 78.38 | Negative | Buy | X | 79.97 | - 3W |
| DBLCIX | Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodities Index | 487.88 | Positive | Sell | O | 487.91 | - 2W |
| DWACOMMOD | DWA Continuous Commodity Index | 865.72 | Positive | Buy | O | 815.10 | - 2W |
| GC/ | Gold Continuous | 2315.20 | Positive | Sell | X | 2039.42 | - 2W |
| HG/ | Copper Continuous | 4.63 | Positive | Sell | X | 3.86 | + 13W |
| ZG/ | Corn (Electronic Day Session) Continuous | 467.00 | Negative | Sell | O | 461.63 | + 10W |
Weekly Commodities Video (4:17)
Like we saw with crude oil (CL/) earlier this week, gasoline (UJ/) fell into a negative Point & Figure trend. The last time gasoline broke through its bullish support line was February of this year, but as seen on the chart below, that weakness was short lived.
There are a couple of distinguishing technical factors that make this trend violation different than the February event.
First, notice that gasoline gave three consecutive sell signals prior to falling beneath its bullish support line. In February, gasoline only gave one sell signal. Furthermore, notice that gasoline put in a series of lower tops beginning in mid-April which was different behavior compared to February, when gasoline was trading in a series of higher highs.
To play the contrarian - while the above differences suggest the current downtrend could be extended, over the past year gasoline found a short-term bottom after printing a third consecutive sell signal. We circled in red each of the past instances.
Of course, geopolitics can play a big role here…which are near impossible to predict with a high degree of certainty. But as it stands technically, energy commodities (with the exception of natural gas now, it’s up 20% in the past month) are showing signs that supply is in control.
