The primary data source policymakers and institutions look at for inflation comes through the Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with plenty of other economic data. This has been the case for decades, however, over the last few years as data has become more readily available, other data collectors have compiled their own metrics. Truflation is one of largest providers of this new wave of ex-government data. One of the benefits of some of these new approaches like Truflation is that it can gather data from different sources that tend to have less lag than government data. Their overall inflation metric signaled a rapid rise in inflation much earlier than the government data and also turned lower before the government data did. While arguments can be made whether either the BLS or Truflation data is more relevant, the data generally shows that Truflation acts as a leading indicator of where the BLS data is headed. Truflation’s data sources are more focused on recent data and lessening the impacts of lag that BLS data has become known for over the last few years. Looking at year-over-year percent changes, Truflation’s US CPI Inflation Index has had a reading below 1% since the end of January whereas BLS’s CPI reading has yet to fall below 2%. If Truflation is a leading indicator, it’s showing that headline CPI data from the BLS is likely to continue to trend lower.

One specific area where the BLS’s data tends to lag the most is with respect housing costs. A key way Truflation looks to solve this problem is with data from places like Zillow to get more real-time housing data. For example, the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) measures changes in asking rents over time, controlling for changes in the quality of the available rental stock. By looking at listing prices, this greatly reduces the lag in how the BLS looks at rental costs via Owner’s Equivalent Rent which collects rent data from each sampled unit every six months. The results of the different methodologies become apparent when looking at their respective year-over-year percent changes over time. Zillow’s index picked up on the increases in rents in early 2021 whereas BLS’s Owner’s Equivalent Rent didn’t start to show warning signs of rising rents until very late in the year. ZORI peaked in early 2022 and showed cooling inflation moving forward while BLS metric didn’t peak until mid-2023. ZORI has continued to lead Owner’s Equivalent Rent over the last several years and is in the lower part of its historical range. BLS’s data still has some catching up to do but does seem to be heading back to historical norms. This setup is would be positive for fixed income and it does seem the market has noticed over the last few weeks with the Ten Year Yield Index (TNX) falling down to its lowest level this year.

If you ask the analyst team their favorite “visual” on the NDW platform, you will get a few different answers. For many, the visual simplicity of the DALI page offers high level commentary about the state of markets around the world. For others, a clean shakeout pattern for a 5/5’er is a picture fit for the Louvre. Not talked about frequently enough is the quilt function, which allows you to stack a custom list of names (or one of NDW’s premade options…) into a list and see performance metrics across the years in one place. For the sake of today’s feature we will analyze the dispersion in performance between the various sectors, which has certainly given us plenty to talk about so far in 2026. In fact, the quilt below details 2026’s sector performance- standing nearly at direct odds with overall trends we saw in 2023-2025. Towards the top of the heap sit energy, basic materials, & staples, groups which typically produce around weaker market environments. On the bottom, the likes of financials, technology, & discretionary paint a bleak story for those rooting for economic growth. In fact, the start to 2026 looks particularly similar to the full 2022 calendar year, a year hindsight tells us was a particularly bleak market on the domestic front.

While the quilt is certainly useful, there is a lot going on. For this reason, we can isolate the best and worst performing funds each year in an effort to measure the dispersion between winners and losers. This dispersion is particularly important because as trendfollowers, a wider range of outcomes typically allows us to pinpoint specific points of strength and underweight those weak areas. The chart below does just that, measuring a ~30% dispersion between best performing Energy (XLE, +23.24%) and Financials (XLF, -6.92%) through 2/24/2026. This spread between our best and worst fund is the widest to start a year since 2022 and the third largest in our observed history going back to 1999. Interestingly enough, the other two higher dispersion years (2021 & 2022) both saw energy lead the way in a similar fashion to 2026. The dataset is admittedly quite small, but there doesn’t seem to be a discernible performance trend following such wide leadership for energy… markets rebounded quite nicely (while energy lagged) in 2021 while such leadership persisted in 2022 while broader markets suffered.

Lots of recent research has touched on the strength of energy. We are just now seeing the sector enter into a handful of NDW models, but many representatives are in what we would consider heavily overbought territory around current levels. Much less research has discussed the decline of financial names, with much of the sector sitting well off their respective highs. Even some of the major blue blood bank stocks like JPM, BAC or WFC has struggled materially so far this year. Most of the larger names retain their strong technical attribute ratings… but many have posted consecutive sell signals and established some significant resistance overhead. While there certainly is an argument that exposure towards the group is still warranted, do exercise significant caution with current holdings. Consider setting alerts for notable breaks of support or further loss of technical favor as a sign of persistent weakness. XLF is now flirting with “unfavorable” territory according to its fund score, and while it still maintains a buy signal on its chart sits without technical support until the mid-$40’s. We are currently trading in heavily oversold territory and around a range of old resistance around current levels, so a near-term bounce could be in store. Regardless, keep a close eye on the sector as the recent decline is certainly quite notable.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 2/24/26:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

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