State Street Sector Model (SSTREET): One Change

Buy Aerospace & Defense (XAR)

As a refresher, the State Street Sector Model SSTREET monitors the Relative Strength (RS) relationships between each of the sector and industry ETFs in the model universe versus the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a 6.5% scale. ETFs that are showing positive RS versus SPX (measured by a column of Xs) are included in the model and are removed only when that relationship reverses into Os. Over the past week of trading, the RS chart comparing the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF XAR versus the S&P 500 Index reversed up into Xs, warranting its addition to the SSTREET model. This model remains fully invested through sector-based ETFs within the broader State Street family of ETFs and is evaluated on a weekly basis. The number of holdings can vary based on sector leadership within changing markets, and with the addition of XAR, the model is equally weighted across 19 positions at 5.26% each. Year-to-date, the SSTREET model is up 26.05%, outperforming the S&P 500's return of 14.59% (through 12/8).

Like a radar screen, the Weekly Activity Summary gives you a snap shot view of any technical changes to the State Street universe of ETFs. Included in the summary below are both long term technical changes and intermediate term technical changes.

The distribution curve places each ETF on a bell curve according to their respective degrees of overbought or oversold status using a 10-week distribution. ETFs that are statistically oversold will appear on the left-hand side of the bell curve, while those that have become statistically overbought will appear on the right-hand side of the bell curve. Perhaps the most useful attribute of this feature is that it displays the entire universe on the curve at one time with an "average level" to give us a general picture of whether the State Street ETF universe is generally overbought on a near-term basis, or generally oversold. Our best opportunities are to buy strong market ETFs that have regressed back toward mean conditions based on market weakness, or have become oversold based upon extreme market weakness. 
Weekly Distribution is a short-term gauge that is most helpful in timing entry and exit points, while the longer-term information of trend and relative strength is a more controlling factor in the decision of whether to buy or sell. The Distribution Curve below displays those ETFs with positive RS in uppercase letters and those ETFs with poor RS versus the market in lowercase letters. As well, those ETFs that are on a Point & Figure Buy signal appear in Green letters, while those on Sell signals can appear in Red letters. Box Color indicates the Sector Status Rating. Green = Favored, Yellow = Average, and Red = Unfavored.

Average Level

80.99

											xlf
											XHS
											xop
											ebnd
											xtn
											XBI
											XSD
											gwx
											rwx
											MDYV
											cwi
									XLB	bwz	CWB
									DIA	gii	xle
									srln	dwx	xtl
									SPY	gmf	SLYV
									rwo	MDYG	DGT
									JNK	ibnd	wip
									XHE	spyv	SLYG
								XLV	kie	XRT	SLY
								xlp	tfi	XSW	kce
							shm	rwr	XLC	kre	ewx
					xlu		gxc	SPYG	bwx	fez	xes
					GLD		psk	XLK	xli	kbe	XAR
			bil		flrn	XHB	XLY	xph	sdy	MDY	xme
<--100	-100--80	-80--60	-60--40	-40--20	-20-0	0-20	20-40	40-60	60-80	80-100	100->

The DWA Matrix uses a Point & Figure relative strength comparison of each index to one another to identify the strongest and the weakest among the universe used. The ETFs with the most relative strength buy signals (suggesting outperformance) versus the others in the group are listed at the top. These ETFs should be overweighted in the portfolio. Those ETFs with the least amount of relative strength buy signals versus the others in the group are listed at the bottom. These ETFs should be underweighted in the portfolio.

The State Street ETF Model Portfolios are designed to identify major leadership themes within a market, doing so through the use of Point and Figure relative strength tools.  Each of the State Street Models are evaluated weekly and guided by a rules-based investment methodology. The construction of the State Street Sector ETF Portfolio is done through an analysis of the each State Street Sector ETF relative strength chart versus the S&P 500, while the Global Sector Rotation model employs a relative strength matrix ranking of the model's inventory.  In either case, those with strong relative strength make the cut and are eligible to be included in the portfolio, while those that aren't, will sit upon the sideline.  For more information on the portfolio construction and back testing please see the information files on the Models Page. To enter a portfolio amount and see shares to be purchased as well as modify the portfolio to your specifications, click here. (Note: All State Street ETF Models are updated Wednesday mornings by 9:30 am EST)

• State Street Sector ETF Model: Buy XAR (aerospace & defense)
• State Street Global Rotation ETF Model: No changes this week.
• State Street Targeted Sector Rotation ETF Model: No changes this week.
• State Street Fixed Income Model: No changes this week.

* - Model Inception:1/17/2007

* - Model Inception:10/28/2008

* - Model Inception: 07/28/2010

* - Model Inception: 04/27/2011