The Mint Ratio provides insight into investors’ shifting preferences between safety and growth by examining the relative strength and performance of gold and silver.
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Introduction
The Mint Ratio provides insight into investors’ shifting preferences between safety and growth by examining the relative strength and performance of gold and silver. Because gold is primarily viewed as a defensive asset while silver carries significant industrial exposure, changes in this ratio often reflect broader risk sentiment. Movements in the ratio can therefore help signal transitions between defensive and risk-on market regimes. By analyzing its historical behavior alongside relative strength and momentum indicator, you can better assess when precious metals may offer attractive opportunities.
Mint Ratio Calculation & Context
The Mint Ratio is calculated by dividing the price of one ounce of gold by the price of one ounce of silver. It expresses how many ounces of silver are required to purchase a single ounce of gold, making it a useful gauge of the relative valuation between the two metals. The importance of the ratio lies not in its absolute level, but in how it changes over time and what those changes suggest about broader market trends. Since gold is widely regarded as a safe-haven asset, a rising Mint Ratio typically indicates that gold is outperforming silver, signaling increased demand for safety. Conversely, silver’s substantial industrial demand is more closely related to an increase in economic growth. When the Mint Ratio declines, it indicates that silver is outperforming gold, reflecting improving growth expectations and thus greater appetite for risk.
The chart below illustrates the historical behavior of the Mint Ratio dating back to 1975. Over this period, the ratio has averaged a value of roughly 63.5, meaning that it has historically taken about 63.5 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. Between 2012-2025, the ratio has largely remained above its long-term average, indicating sustained relative strength in gold. Over the past year, however, this trend reversed sharply as silver began to outperform. The Mint Ratio peaked just above 100 in April of 2025 before entering a sustained downtrend. Notably, the ratio fell below its historical average in December, signaling a shift away from defensive positioning and toward a more offensive, risk-oriented market postures.
RS Chart & Weekly OBOS
The chart below highlights the relative strength (RS) relationship between gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) using the default 3.25% scale. In June 2025, the RS chart reversed into a column of Os, demonstrates silver’s relative outperformance versus gold. This column persisted for several months before ultimately giving a signal to sell in December 2025. This sustained RS trend reinforces the signal conveyed by the Mint Ratio: silver has been outperforming gold, aligning with an improving risk environment and providing an additional tailwind for risk-on areas.
The question now remains, is now a good time to get exposure to gold, silver, or both? While the recent development in silver’s relative performance is constructive, entry timing remains critical. The weekly overbought/oversold (OBOS) indicator, which measures where an asset is trading relative to its 10-week trading band, can help provide some context. As a reminder, readings above 70% are typically considered overbought, while readings below -70% are considered oversold.
Following the recent rally, GLD and SLV reached weekly OBOS readings of 141% and 176%, respectively. When viewed over the past two decades, these readings fall in the 99th percentile for both metals, underscoring how statistically extreme these current readings are. The histogram below displays the frequency of the weekly OBOS readings across various ranges or “buckets”, with the x-axis representing the OBOS bucket and the y-axis showing the number of historical occurrences. Given the rarity of current levels, investors interested in gaining exposure to gold or silver may want to wait for more favorable entry points, marked by a normalization of weekly OBOS readings.
