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Introduction

The Mint Ratio provides insight into investors’ shifting preferences between safety and growth by examining the relative strength and performance of gold and silver. Because gold is primarily viewed as a defensive asset while silver carries significant industrial exposure, changes in this ratio often reflect broader risk sentiment. Movements in the ratio can therefore help signal transitions between defensive and risk-on market regimes. By analyzing its historical behavior alongside relative strength and momentum indicator, you can better assess when precious metals may offer attractive opportunities.

Mint Ratio Calculation & Context

The Mint Ratio is calculated by dividing the price of one ounce of gold by the price of one ounce of silver. It expresses how many ounces of silver are required to purchase a single ounce of gold, making it a useful gauge of the relative valuation between the two metals. The importance of the ratio lies not in its absolute level, but in how it changes over time and what those changes suggest about broader market trends. Since gold is widely regarded as a safe-haven asset, a rising Mint Ratio typically indicates that gold is outperforming silver, signaling increased demand for safety. Conversely, silver’s substantial industrial demand is more closely related to an increase in economic growth. When the Mint Ratio declines, it indicates that silver is outperforming gold, reflecting improving growth expectations and thus greater appetite for risk.

The chart below illustrates the historical behavior of the Mint Ratio dating back to 1975. Over this period, the ratio has averaged a value of roughly 63.5, meaning that it has historically taken about 63.5 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. Between 2012-2025, the ratio has largely remained above its long-term average, indicating sustained relative strength in gold. Over the past year, however, this trend reversed sharply as silver began to outperform. The Mint Ratio peaked just above 100 in April of 2025 before entering a sustained downtrend. Notably, the ratio fell below its historical average in December, signaling a shift away from defensive positioning and toward a more offensive, risk-oriented market postures.

RS Chart & Weekly OBOS

The chart below highlights the relative strength (RS) relationship between gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) using the default 3.25% scale. In June 2025, the RS chart reversed into a column of Os, demonstrates silver’s relative outperformance versus gold. This column persisted for several months before ultimately giving a signal to sell in December 2025. This sustained RS trend reinforces the signal conveyed by the Mint Ratio: silver has been outperforming gold, aligning with an improving risk environment and providing an additional tailwind for risk-on areas.

The question now remains, is now a good time to get exposure to gold, silver, or both? While the recent development in silver’s relative performance is constructive, entry timing remains critical. The weekly overbought/oversold (OBOS) indicator, which measures where an asset is trading relative to its 10-week trading band, can help provide some context. As a reminder, readings above 70% are typically considered overbought, while readings below -70% are considered oversold.

Following the recent rally, GLD and SLV reached weekly OBOS readings of 141% and 176%, respectively. When viewed over the past two decades, these readings fall in the 99th percentile for both metals, underscoring how statistically extreme these current readings are. The histogram below displays the frequency of the weekly OBOS readings across various ranges or “buckets”, with the x-axis representing the OBOS bucket and the y-axis showing the number of historical occurrences. Given the rarity of current levels, investors interested in gaining exposure to gold or silver may want to wait for more favorable entry points, marked by a normalization of weekly OBOS readings.

With small caps and equally weighted assets outperforming their large, cap-weighted counterparts to kick off 2026 there have been notable developments occur within a number of small cap sectors. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has gained more than 9.5% year-to-date through Thursday’s (1/22) close, outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 8%. Among the nine sector related ETFs within the Invesco Small Cap Sector lineup, five of them outperform RUT through 1/22 and four are up more than double digits. Below is a review of recent technical developments within the four Invesco SmallCap sector ETFs that are up more than 10%.

Broadly speaking, energy has been the best performing sector to kick off 2026, and the Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF (PSCE) is outperforming the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) along with RUT by 3.5% through Thursday’s close. On the point and figure trend chart, PSCE returned to a positive trend in August 2025 and has maintained a buy signal since October. After testing the bullish support line to end 2025, PSCE reversed into Xs and rallied to give a third buy signal as it rallied to $48.50, marking its highest level since January 2025. Following this past Wednesday’s (1/21) action, the market relative strength chart of PSCE moved back to an RS buy signal for the first time since early 2023. From a peer RS standpoint, PSCE has maintained positive near-term RS versus its large cap counterpart, XLE, since May of last year. With the recent technical improvement, PSCE has seen its fund score improve to an acceptable 4.87 mark, which is highest than the average score for a fund within the broader Energy (3.92) group on the Asset Class Group Scores page. Those seeking exposure to PSCE could consider the fund in the $45 to $47 range. Note the next level of resistance lies in the lower to mid-$50 range. Initial support can be found at $42.50, the bullish support line, while additional points may be found in the $41 range.

Prior to energy’s recent run as a sector darling, that title was firmly with materials, which has shown improvement technical improvement since November. Through Thursday’s close, PSCM has gained more than 12% on a year-to-date basis, outperforming RUT by 2.5%. On the trend chart, the Invesco S&P SmallCap Materials ETF (PSCM) has maintained a buy signal and positive trend since November. Price action through December and January, so far, has brought improvement from the upper $70s to a new all-time high at $96 in a single column of Xs. This improvement has brought the market relative strength chart of PSCM to within one box of an RS buy signal. The fund has shown positive long-term relative strength against its large cap peer, the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB), since early December 2025. PSCM’s recent rally has placed the weekly overbought/oversold (OBOS) reading at historically high level since the beginning of January and above the top of the 10-week trading band. Those who may be seeking exposure to PSCM would look for price consolidation in the mid to lower $90s along with a normalization of the 10-week trading band before considering. Initial support currently lies at prior resistance at $86, while additional can be found in the mid to lower $70s.

While energy and materials have seen notable performance from both their small and large cap counterparts, technology is a sector where the performance difference between the small cap Invesco representative, the Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology ETF (PSCT), and the large cap, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) is a bit more apparent. Through Thursday’s (1/22) close, PSCT has gained 11.62% and outperformed XLK by just shy of 11%. On the trend chart, PSCT has maintained a buy signal since April 2025 and positive trend since May 2025. Trading last week brought a seventh buy signal for the fund before rallying to a new all-time high at $63 during trading this week. Along with the all-time high on the trend chart, the market relative strength chart shifted back into a column of Xs following Wednesday’s (1/21) trading. Relative to its large cap counterpart, PSCT has maintained positive near-term RS against XLK since September 2025. Those seeking exposure to PSCT can consider the ETF here on the recent rally or on a pullback toward the middle of the 10-week trading band at $58. Initial support lies at $57, while additional can be found at $52.

Along with PSCM and PSCT, the Invesco S&P SmallCap Industrials ETF (PSCI) has also rallied to a new all-time chart high on its trend chart during this week’s trading. Year-to-date, PSCI is up more than 11%, outperforming RUT by 1.5% and its large cap counterpart, the Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), by more than 4.5%. On the trend chart, PSCI has maintained a positive trend since July 2025, and returned to a buy signal in December. January’s action has brought about a second buy signal as the fund has rallied to a new high at $168. From a relative strength standpoint, PSCI has maintained positive long-term relative strength against the market since 2023 and positive near-term RS against its peer, XLI, since August last year. The recent rally to highs has brought PSCI into overbought territory, above the top of the 10-week trading band. Those seeking exposure are best served by looking for price consolidation within the mid to lower $160 range along with a normalization of the 10-week trading band before considering. Initial support lies at $152, while additional can be found at $140.

Featured Charts:

Portfolio View - Major Market ETFs

Daily Option Ideas for January 23, 2026