Take a trip, if you dare, to NDW's House of Horror. Here we review the scary technical pictures for several candy based companies ahead of Halloween
This weekend is Halloween, ushering in scary movies, costume parties, and of course…. lots and lots of sugar. Whether you are sneaking in a KitKat after everyone else has gone to bed or simply making sure you are all stocked up before the drove of ghosts & ghouls demand a “trick or treat,” you’ve probably gone out and purchased a bit of candy over the last few weeks. Around the NDW office, there are a few analysts with a bit of a sweet tooth. Favorites include the likes of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and Sour Patch Kids. Alongside the likes of car brands, airlines, and other eateries, candy is one of the most well known “buy what you know” options, meaning there might be one of your clients who is interested in (or already has) exposure towards their favorite chocolate maker. Today’s article will cover just a handful of these names, which unfortunately pack a bit more of a “trick” than “treat” for this Halloween.
If you have gone out and purchased candy this year, you might have noticed a higher price tag alongside the bags of sugar you’ll be handing out. Cocoa is obviously a main ingredient in chocolate, and while prices for CC/ trade well off their relative highs in 2025, ABC news projects that candy prices are still ~15% higher in 2026 compared to 2025. Talk about a Halloween scare! While there are several reasons for why this might be, the most likely scenario is the fact that highly volatile cocoa prices in 2024-2025 saw many highly dependent companies lock in higher prices to hedge against further increases. A 100-point chart for CC/ is included below. With a somewhat clear point of support around $5,000 p/ton down below current levels, it remains rather rangebound as we move into November. On the commodities front, agriculture options have taken a backseat to other energy focused areas so leadership here is spotty at best.
The most famous (at least around our office in Richmond) candy company is privately owned and operated. Mars, whose brands include the likes of M&M’s, Snickers, Twix, Milky Way, 3 Musketeers, and many more, have something for virtually everyone, although you can’t go out and buy a piece of them directly like some of the other names we will go and look at. Perhaps the most “obvious” of our Halloween focused list today is Hershey (HSY). While a king size chocolate bar might be at the top of your list this weekend, the stock leaves much to be desired for now. It sits on a pair of sell signals, in a negative trend and earns a poor 0/5 technical attribute rating as of 10/29. Support and resistance are included below.
While best known for their flagship Oreo brand, Mondelez (MDLZ) has its fair share of candies you’ll likely find in your tick or treat pail this weekend. Including the likes of Sour Patch Kids, Swedish Fish, Cadbury and more, Mondelez has exposure outside of the pure chocolate portfolio. While it does remain a low attribute 1/5’er, its performance is better than several other pure chocolate producers (like previously mentioned Hershey). Mondelez has picked up just over 16% so far this year and will look to challenge some resistance overhead in the upper $60’s, as marked above. It is worth noting that most of the chocolate producers have very similar technical pictures at the time of this writing. Besides those of you with a sugar rush, convincing yourself any of them are strong would be quite difficult.
But of course, come Monday morning, all the sugar will catch up with us and Google searches for GLP-1’s will be on the rise across the nation. Eli Lilly LLY trades at all time highs, having recently reported strong earnings surrounding their flagship Zepbound product. LLY is a 5/5’er to close out October, having picked up over 25% so far this year. It sits near the top of its trading band but could be considered on light pullbacks towards a range of resistance between $1264 and $1312.
Happy Halloween from the NDW Team!
