Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 10/30. Access the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

• Markets were mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 itself declining around 0.30%. However, the average stock, represented by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI), put together a strong day with a gain of 1.21%.
• With the average stock performing well, most participation indicators lifted higher on the day. Most notably, the positive trend percent for the S&P 500 (^PTSPX) reversed back into a column of Xs, leaving it back above the 50% level where the majority of gains occur.
• Movement yesterday was enough to push Domestic Equities back to the top of DALI’s asset class ranks. International equities and domestic equities have been neck and neck over the last several months, and both remain overweights despite the move.
• One of the worst performing areas on Thursday was the software sector, with the iShares North American Tech-Software ETF (IGV) declining 3.5% on the day. Fortinet Inc. (FTNT) plummeted more than 20% after reporting earnings, but is still a 3 for 5’er, and is now in heavily oversold territory right above its bullish support line. Watch for further changes in TA as markets digest results. 
• The Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) reversed back into a column of Os against the Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF (VTV), highlighting near-term relative weakness from growth names against value names. That said, growth still holds long-term relative strength, sitting on an RS buy signal since the first half of 2023.

Brazilian and Latin American equities dropped on Monday (10/26) for the worst day since March 2020 after the surprise reelection of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to a fourth term. The surprise comes after Brazilian and Latin American equities had rallied in recent weeks thinking Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro) was the top candidate after the opening round of Brazil’s presidential elections earlier this month. While Bolsonaro’s approach to tighter fiscal policy had given markets a boost, Lula’s reelection brought concerns about rising debt and the new administration’s fiscal approach to lower borrowing costs. Though the Lula administration has pointed to a repositioning by investors for cause of the recent deterioration and that the fundamental picture remains sound, the damage to the technical picture for Brazil and broader Latin America in the near-term has been significant.

Following trading on 10/29, international equities fell below domestic equities within our longer-term to move into second within the NDW DALI Asset Class Rankings. Much of the responsibility for the change comes from the abrupt deterioration within Brazil and broader Latin America impacting the asset class ranks in DALI and the Asset Class Group Scores. Though the longer-term rankings within the NDW DALI International Equity Rankings still have Latin America sitting in first, it is worth bearing in mind that many Latin American representatives saw relative strength (RS) charts reverse into Os earlier this week and bring RS charts to within a box or two of a potential RS sell. Additional downside from here can push the RS charts to see the signal switch to sell, and with the multitude residing near the cusp, a potential change in Latin America’s ranking could be in the offing. On the Asset Class Group Scores page, which averages the fund scores of all ETFs and mutual funds on the NDW platform, the Latin American group fell down from 4.25 as of 10/23 down to 2.02 as of 10/29. This marks the lowest group score level since April 2025 and brings the group down to rank low within the Non-US View on the ACGS page with the likes of international equity income related groups, India, and China.

The technical picture for the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) offers a view of recent action within Brazilian equities. After seeing a second buy signal and trend reversal earlier in October, EWZ moved to within a couple boxes of its all-time chart high in the low $40s. Following the announcement of the Lula’s reelection on Monday (10/26), EWZ fell from $43 to $31.50 intraday Monday (10/26), marking the lowest level since January this year. Though a brief reversal ensued on 10/27, Wednesday’s (10/28) trading brought the chart back into Os, marking another lower top since the recent peak. The 19% drop on 10/26 brought the market and peer relative strength charts back into Os, highlighting near-term underperformance, while the continued negative action Wednesday (10/28) brought the market RS chart to within one box of an RS sell signal. Along with seeing action on the market and peer RS charts, EWZ moved to an RS sell signal against the NDW U.S. Money Market (MNYMKT) proxy following Wednesday’s (10/28) trading. EWZ has now fallen to its most oversold level since December 2024, and the ETF’s fund score has dropped to its lowest level since August 2026.

Within broader Latin America, the only remaining country to still maintain a positive overall technical picture is Colombia with the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (COLO) holding a 5.77 fund score (out of 6), though the fund did give a second sell signal following news of the surprise election in Brazil. Peru, through the iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure (EPU), witnessed a third sell signal prior to the Brazilian elections, while Chile and Argentina, by way of the iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH) and Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT), violated notable long-term support, marking their lowest levels since October 2025. Broadly speaking, the iShares S&P Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) witnessed a shift into a negative trend and fell down to support at $32.50 on 10/26. Like EWZ, ILF reversed down into Os on the market and peer RS charts following action on 10/26 and now sits within one box of a potential market RS sell signal. Along with seeing action on the market and peer RS charts, ILF moved to an RS sell signal against the NDW U.S. Money Market (MNYMKT) proxy following Thursday’s (10/29) trading.

Brazil’s election has clearly caused enough concern for investors to impact the technical picture of the country and the broader region in the near-term. At the moment, the deterioration within Latin America has brought about a potential leadership change within the broader international equity space. Broadly speaking, with domestic and international equities still maintaining the top two spots and commodities sitting in third, DALI still maintains a risk-on posture. Though as has been highlighted, the rotation of a region or sector within the market out of a leadership position can cause impacts elsewhere in the longer-term rankings. Bear in mind, NDW users can set alerts for not only price or chart action on trend charts, but for action on relative strength charts, as well as changes to the NDW DALI Rankings and Asset Class Group Scores page in order to stay abreast to potential changes.

This weekend is Halloween, ushering in scary movies, costume parties, and of course…. lots and lots of sugar. Whether you are sneaking in a KitKat after everyone else has gone to bed or simply making sure you are all stocked up before the drove of ghosts & ghouls demand a “trick or treat,” you’ve probably gone out and purchased a bit of candy over the last few weeks. Around the NDW office, there are a few analysts with a bit of a sweet tooth. Favorites include the likes of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and Sour Patch Kids. Alongside the likes of car brands, airlines, and other eateries, candy is one of the most well known “buy what you know” options, meaning there might be one of your clients who is interested in (or already has) exposure towards their favorite chocolate maker. Today’s article will cover just a handful of these names, which unfortunately pack a bit more of a “trick” than “treat” for this Halloween.

If you have gone out and purchased candy this year, you might have noticed a higher price tag alongside the bags of sugar you’ll be handing out. Cocoa is obviously a main ingredient in chocolate, and while prices for CC/ trade well off their relative highs in 2025, ABC news projects that candy prices are still ~15% higher in 2026 compared to 2025. Talk about a Halloween scare! While there are several reasons for why this might be, the most likely scenario is the fact that highly volatile cocoa prices in 2024-2025 saw many highly dependent companies lock in higher prices to hedge against further increases. A 100-point chart for CC/ is included below. With a somewhat clear point of support around $5,000 p/ton down below current levels, it remains rather rangebound as we move into November. On the commodities front, agriculture options have taken a backseat to other energy focused areas so leadership here is spotty at best.

The most famous (at least around our office in Richmond) candy company is privately owned and operated. Mars, whose brands include the likes of M&M’s, Snickers, Twix, Milky Way, 3 Musketeers, and many more, have something for virtually everyone, although you can’t go out and buy a piece of them directly like some of the other names we will go and look at. Perhaps the most “obvious” of our Halloween focused list today is Hershey (HSY). While a king size chocolate bar might be at the top of your list this weekend, the stock leaves much to be desired for now. It sits on a pair of sell signals, in a negative trend and earns a poor 0/5 technical attribute rating as of 10/29. Support and resistance are included below.

While best known for their flagship Oreo brand, Mondelez (MDLZ) has its fair share of candies you’ll likely find in your tick or treat pail this weekend. Including the likes of Sour Patch Kids, Swedish Fish, Cadbury and more, Mondelez has exposure outside of the pure chocolate portfolio. While it does remain a low attribute 1/5’er, its performance is better than several other pure chocolate producers (like previously mentioned Hershey). Mondelez has picked up just over 16% so far this year and will look to challenge some resistance overhead in the upper $60’s, as marked above. It is worth noting that most of the chocolate producers have very similar technical pictures at the time of this writing. Besides those of you with a sugar rush, convincing yourself any of them are strong would be quite difficult.

But of course, come Monday morning, all the sugar will catch up with us and Google searches for GLP-1’s will be on the rise across the nation. Eli Lilly LLY trades at all time highs, having recently reported strong earnings surrounding their flagship Zepbound product. LLY is a 5/5’er to close out October, having picked up over 25% so far this year. It sits near the top of its trading band but could be considered on light pullbacks towards a range of resistance between $1264 and $1312.

Happy Halloween from the NDW Team!

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Portfolio View - Major Market ETFs

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

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