There has been no shortage of volatility in energy markets over the last month. Including Wednesday, April 8, 2026, crude oil has had five days this year with a daily absolute move greater than 10%.

There has been no shortage of volatility in energy markets over the last month. Including Wednesday, April 8, 2026, crude oil has had five days this year with a daily absolute move greater than 10%. The last couple of oil price shock events, onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Covid, had their fair share of extreme daily moves for crude oil. From March through May of 2020, Crude Oil Continuous (CL/) had seventeen 10% magnitude daily moves. While the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict led oil significantly higher, it had only one day where it had a 10% daily move which was the day after the top for the cycle had been established. With data going back to 1983, these volatile periods were usually followed by some form of mean reversion to historical norms over the next year. While there is still elevated risk as tensions are still high in the Middle East, the amount of volatility we’ve experienced typically happens closer to the end of a move rather than the beginning.

Moving onto the trend chart of crude oil, it was able to get one box away from its initial shock high of 118 before falling roughly 15% on April 8th and giving a sell signal (will be on the chart April 9th as commodity prices update overnight). Two important levels on the downside to watch are $86 and $78. A break below $78 opens up crude oil to fall back to the area it spent most of last year and would dispel worries of inflation. With that said, it may take awhile for production to get back to pre-conflict levels and for storage capacity in importers to fill back up, so it’ll take some time before the market can get back to the low 60s. Coupled with the possibility of continued conflict, look for crude oil to settle in the mid-80s over the next couple of months if the ceasefire holds. With all those contingencies, the levels will be key to watch over the coming weeks and months.