In addition to providing one of the most dependable sporting events from a pure entertainment perspective, The Masters, which tees off on April 9th, provides a useful platform from which you can better communicate what it is you provide as an advisor.
In addition to providing one of the most dependable sporting events from a pure entertainment perspective, The Masters, which tees off on April 9th, provides a useful platform from which you can better communicate what it is you provide as an advisor. Some analogies prove to be more useful than others in this business, depending on your client base, but golf and football are fairly ubiquitous in this country. One need not have a single-digit handicap to understand the difference in the probabilities of hitting a green from 120 yards out in calm conditions, versus hitting the same green from 180 yards out, over water, and into the wind. In both cases, a golf swing is required, but that is perhaps the only thing similar between the two scenarios.
A Lesson From Augusta National Golf Club (ANGC), It's Never All Roses
If the 13th hole at ANGC, home of the Masters, isn't the perfect golf hole, it is close. If it isn't the most strategic hole at ANGC, it is close. And if a hole that is aptly named "Azalea" isn't the most scenic on the golf course come early April each year, you need to have a long talk with the course superintendent. ANGC is unique as a golf course in many ways, and this is the time of year that avid golf fans can do a little more than just sit back and watch in awe. The par 5's at Augusta, of which the 13th hole is one, are among the easiest holes on the course based upon scoring averages, and they are often the only holes that play under par. The 12th hole, by contrast, is the shortest hole on the course (listed at 155 yards) and is typically played over par by "the field." In fact, the historical stroke average for this hole is above par at 3.27. It is sometimes among the most difficult holes on the course relative to par. But it is that first step off the slippery 12th green that concerns us today and will concern the best golfers in the world later this week, as this is when they head up to the final hole of what is affectionately referred to as "Amen Corner," the aforementioned 13th.
In terms of coming in under par, the 13th at Augusta is among the "easiest" holes, if not the easiest, on the course, historically speaking. On average, the scoring on the 13th is under par at 4.77. But that doesn't mean there aren't some scary moments for the pros. When players get to the 13th at Augusta in today's composite-fused, over-sized, extra-long, super-stiff, NASA-approved driver world, it isn't the length of the hole that is daunting - almost every player in the field is capable of reaching the 510ish yard par-5 in two strokes. Rather, it is the combination of distance, a steeply sloping fairway, enough pine straw to choke a rake, and the most famous creek in golf (Rae's) protecting a green that makes the Rockies look flat, that makes the 13th one of the most strategic holes in golf.
On the one hand, the green is easily reachable in two for a scratch golfer (distance-wise), if played well. On the other hand, some of the best golfers in the world have putted a ball off the green and into the creek (Tiger Woods in 2005). Before putting comes into play, a good tee shot is mandatory for a golfer to even think about the aggressive second shot that could ultimately lead to an eagle on the 13th. A wayward drive that lands in the trees or the pine needles makes going for the green a treacherous proposition with a low probability for success (just don't tell Phil Mickelson). And even with a good tee shot, the second shot is one of pure strategy, a point-driven home like a John Daly slap-shot back in 2007. That same year, Tiger Woods had a remarkable eagle at 13 in the final round after hitting the green in two and caused perhaps the loudest roars of the tournament that year. Meanwhile, the eventual winner, Zach Johnson, chose not to attempt to reach the green in two shots a single time in the tournament, and as the sunset on Master's Sunday, he was the one slipping on a new green blazer. Or who could forget when Bubba Watson, back in 2014, went on to claim his second green jacket after gaining plenty of momentum on 13. He blasted his drive over the trees and onto the fairway, then pulled out a sand wedge to plop it over Rae's Creek and onto the green in two. He then birdied the hole. As you can see, number 13 at Augusta is quite simply a remarkable risk-reward hole that offers many ways to play it and many ways to fail.
Evaluating the "Lie"
If you work in this business long enough, you will encounter all types of markets. The worst thing to do is to abandon your game plan. Focus. It's not unlike golf. The front nine could go flawlessly, and at the turn, you hit an errant tee shot on 10, put the approach in the trap, and then three-putt for a bogey. If you play long enough, these types of holes will happen. The question is how do you handle the adversity? Focus. Focus on the fundamentals. Focus on the current shot, not the next eight holes.
When we look at the market indicators today, we see the equivalent of what PGA tour professionals (and a handful of amateurs) will see at the "Azalea" hole if they hit a reasonably good tee shot. We find a challenging second shot, but one in which there are many "right" answers thanks to the outcome of our good first shot off the tee. The S&P 500 (SPX) is coming off its third strong year in a row. However, stocks have stumbled recently with domestic equities dropping in the DALI asset class rankings. And technology, which had been the go-to “club”, has been out of favor over the short-term. However, there are opportunities as six of the eleven broad sectors are in the green this year-to-date (through 4/6) and international equities have continued to show strength.
From an economic perspective, the war in Iran and potential effects of higher energy prices remain a concern. So, in golf terms, we could be in store for shifting weather conditions that make the course more challenging to navigate.
While there are many factors in our favor, it doesn't make the shot in front of us a cinch. There are still risks, so instead of being dead set on an eagle, be willing to accept a birdie or par when that’s all the course (or the market) is offering. It is critical to maintain perspective on what our "lie" is today to properly evaluate what the realistic options are for the next shot. One of the great additions to network coverage of golf on TV over the past few years has been the ability to eavesdrop on conversations between players and their caddies. It provides a great deal of insight into all of the factors that professionals at this level of the sport analyze before each swing of the club. Some caddies are more vocal and assertive than others.
This is the role of tools like DALI and the Asset Class Group Scores – as a capable caddie that complements your knowledge and experience. These tools won’t swing the club for you, but they will give you meaningful information about the playing conditions in the investment world and where our odds of success are greatest. Like a good caddie, the tools on the NDW platform offer guidance, advising you toward logical club selections based on present conditions, while you remain the ultimate decision-maker (and star of the show).
There will always be those investors who want to wait until everything in the market lines up before putting money to work. They want to open the Wall Street Journal and see the headline, "All Roses", at the top of the front page. They want to see representatives on the floor of Congress holding hands and singing "Kumbayah," a US economy that looks like someone put rocket fuel in the gas tank, and all G20 heads of state participating in one big group hug. The problem is, first, this isn't going to happen and, second, if it did it would probably represent a top in the market rather than an opportune entry point. Some investors have learned the futility of playing golf with no practice or training. Others would just as soon spend years on the range getting their game "right" before venturing onto an actual course. In both cases, opportunity and/or money is sacrificed. An evaluation of the market environment will never yield "all roses," but rather something more similar to the picture from the "Azalea" fairway at Augusta - a tough shot with several potential right answers. You may choose to lay up here, which is fine, that approach has won the Masters before. But now is not the time to stare at this market with your knees knocking, too scared to pull something, anything, out of the bag.
If you start each workday with the feeling that you are lost, unprepared, or lacking confidence in your own decisions, it may just be time to consider taking the advice of your caddie a little more seriously. You will never have tomorrow's Wall Street Journal; therefore, you must find a methodology that gives you the confidence to swing the club. In golf, great players hit the occasional bad shots and lousy players will hit enough good shots to at least give them hope for the future. Those who ultimately win, however, are inevitably those who consistently hone their skills, put in a ton of effort, and utilize solid course management. How you go about developing such skills in this business is up to you; we have a process that allows the advisor to make logical, disciplined investment decisions in a repeatable fashion. This process can't make azaleas bloom until December, or Rae's Creek run dry for your next shot, and it surely won't get you a Monday morning tee time at Augusta. But it will keep you on the course, it will help you make sound decisions, and we think it is a process that can be effectively conveyed to clients. As you are enjoying the "tradition unlike any other," perhaps we'll see another iconic moment like Bubba's rocket over the trees. It will be something to talk about for weeks to come with your clients who share an interest in the game, and perhaps also an opportunity to explain your brand to others along the way.
