While more wartime companies have gotten plenty of attention in 2026, domestic transports have also done quite well. We evaluate the space in today's article
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Amidst all the talk about international unrest and focus on companies that can rule the skies in the Middle East, there has been a distinct lack of conversation about those that rule the ground. The Dow Transports Theory suggests that the forward-looking nature of broad markets converges with the actual transportation of goods and services around the nation. After all, a company’s sales can say the top line is growing… but if planes, trains and automobiles aren’t delivering a tangible product to your doorstep there may be a growing disconnect between the true economic and stock market implied health of the economy. While there are certainly questions as to the longer-term health of the consumer and overall spending power, transportation companies haven’t shown it so far in 2026. In fact, the Dow Jones Transportation Avg. (TRAN) has gained over 10% this year, journeying nicely along its positive trend line below current levels as we open up Q2. While it does sit off its highs established earlier this year, the overall technical picture remains quite strong as the next level of resistance lies around 20,000 on its default PnF chart.
While it doesn’t currently trade in a positive trend, transport-focused ETF XTN has quite an interesting technical picture to open April. Earning a strong 4.54 fund score as of 4/6, the fund is up roughly 5% this year as recent action has led it to test its negative trend line around current levels. Further upside would push it back into a positive trend and would most likely bump its fund score back above 5.0. Zooming outside of just XTN, the broader transports group sits 11th out of all 134 groups on NDW’s asset class group scores page. While this score has backed off recent highs from earlier in 2026 when the average score crested 5.0 back in February, the longer-term relative picture for the entire group is quite strong.
Underneath the hood of many of these transport focused funds sit several stocks with interesting technical pictures. The likes of ODFL or FDX are up 20%+ this year, having recently taken a breather on their default charts. The chart below for FDX highlights relevant support and resistance levels worth monitoring. While the astute chartist might mention the lower high (from $392 in February to $380 in March) as a bearish development, its worth noting that bulls have been quick to defend newly established support in the $340’s. Now flirting with the middle of its trading band (50-day moving average), those looking to take offensive positions in this market environment could do so here. For those looking to take a slightly more defensive approach to cash deployment in this market environment, perhaps wait for a possible retest of the support in the $340’s, or have a tight stop loss in place in the event of further deterioration. Regardless, the stock appears to be a high RS name within a relatively high RS subsector.
There are several other names that have shown improvement. While not as much of a direct shipping/direct transport as the likes of FDX or ODFL, blueblood Delta reports earnings late this week on 4/8/26. While only a 3/5’er at the time of this writing, the recent break back into a positive trend is encouraging to say the least. Back and forth action leaves plenty of resistance above current levels, but more recent support established at $63 leaves a base of support to retreat to on poor results. Sitting square in the middle of its trading band, DAL is a strong candite for those of you looking to take a “flier” around earnings.
