Copper continues to recent rally and shows positive relative strength.
Monday’s (12/22) action marked a notable upside day for the broader commodity space with gold (GC/) and silver (SI/) moving to all-time highs above $4400 and $69. Meanwhile, crude oil (CL/) rebounded off recent lows, reversing higher after moving above $58. Action in the early morning hours Tuesday (12/23) saw gold and silver improve upon Monday’s highs with prices rallying above $4500 and $70. While geopolitical developments regarding Venezuela over the weekend brought the aforementioned price developments, Friday’s (12/19) action brought positive developments for another key commodity.
On the default point and figure chart for copper (HG/), Friday’s action led to a quadruple top break at $5.44 and a fifth consecutive buy signal since early October. This action follows a trend reversal back to positive earlier in December and a switch back to positive monthly momentum for the key economic industrial metal. Intraday action Tuesday has brought copper prices above $5.60, placing the metal at the top of the 10-week trading band and most overbought level since July this year. All-time chart highs from that time reside at $5.88, while near-term support has developed in the mid to upper $5.20 range.
Alongside the breakout Friday, the relative strength chart comparing copper to the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (SPGSCI) reversed back into Xs after the chart had been in Os since March of this year. While long-term relative strength has favored copper since April 2024, near-term relative strength now favors copper. Another example of copper and the broader industrial metals space recent relative improvement can be seen within NDW’s DALI Commodity Rankings, where the group has climbed from last (fourth) in early October to second behind precious metals. Given copper’s economic importance, this is a positive development in what has been an uncertain near-term economic period capping off 2025.
Those interested in potential exposure to copper could look to the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER), which has maintained a buy signal since late October. Action earlier this month brought about a second buy signal, while recent trading has brought the fund above $34 to challenge the bearish resistance line. From here, a move above $34.50 would flip the trend back to positive. CPER maintains an acceptable fund score of 4.72 due to the fund’s strong relative performance in the near-term against equities and its commodity peers, which is higher than the average score for a fund within the commodities (3.48) and materials (3.84) groups on the Asset Class Group Scores. The ETF’s all-time chart high from July resides at $36.50, while support can be found at $30.50 and $27.50.
