Chances are, you are reading this on an iPhone, an iPad, MacBook, Apple Watch, or maybe even listening to NDW’s newest podcast through your Airpods. If not, you’ll probably end up seeing or interacting with at least one Apple product before heading home this evening to turn on some Apple TV and binge your favorite show. Apple has its hand in nearly everyone’s pockets in one shape or another, whether that be the newest iPhone or that pesky recurring charge for 200 GB of storage you forgot to cancel years ago. It is for this reason that AAPL’s product events are heavily watched. With consumer spending remaining resilient, especially among the higher earners and Apple’s prime customer base, all eyes will be on the latest iPhone 17 (announced on 9/9 with a 9/19 release date). As all of us (including your clients) will be inundated with marketing urging them to buy the newest pocket-sized supercomputer, so let’s look at historical iPhone releases and Apple’s performance tendances.

Before diving into the stock’s performance following iPhone releases, it is worth observing the current technical picture. After marking a new all-time high in December 2024 at $260, AAPL consolidated to begin 2025 before giving consecutive sell signals in March and April. While returning to a buy signal in April, the stock did reverse down into Os on its market RS chart and ultimately reversed into Os on the peer RS chart after lagging other computer stocks off the market lows. July’s action brought a positive trend flip, returning the stock to a 3 for 5’er, and cleared notable resistance in the $210 range. Action over the last month led to a third buy signal as shares rallied to $240, just below resistance in the mid to upper $240 range. Initial support may be seen around prior resistance in the $210 range, while additional may be found at $204 and in the $190 range.

Apple will drum up interest in their new phone, that’s for certain. But does that mean interest in their stock will follow suit? The chart below details AAPL absolute and relative performance following historical announcements of their newest iPhones going back to 2007.  On both fronts, AAPL finds itself in the red against SPX in the near term, in classic “buy the rumor sell the news” fashion. In more intermediate time frames, AAPL tends to claw some of that back, highlighting the staying power of their tech in consumers’ pockets. Despite the apparent lack of genuinely “new” features in iPhones in the last few years, relative performance in the near-term has improved with more recent iPhone releases. While the shorter-term timeframe may appear rockier for Apple – often due to more than a single product release – positive absolute and relative performance favors Apple over the long-term. Historically near-term weakness following iPhone announcements have been decent opportunities to enter. Those seeking exposure to Apple could consider it in the $220 to mid-$230 range.

The phrase “stock picker’s market” seems to be picking up steam across the financial media lexicon. Goldman Sachs released an article in February titled “US Equities are Ripe for Stock Pickers.” Fast forward to July and Morgan Stanley put out a piece of their own titled “It’s a Stock Picker’s Market.” Of course, these are just two examples in a sea of market calls. Calls like this often come from banks that are simultaneously trying to pitch you new actively managed products to take advantage of their stock pickers.

With that in mind, we are reminded of a Portfolio Management Perspective article from January 2016, titled, "If You're Going to Be Active, Be Systematic." The article, had a quote from Michael Batnick of The Irrelevant Investor, which stated, "When considering active strategies, it’s important for us that we’re not relying on anyone’s intuition, expertise, or mental or emotional well-being. We don’t want our PMs speaking with management, doing channel checks, or backing out the cash. We want them to follow their models with as little interference as humanly possible" (Michael Batnick).

That's exactly what the NDW methodology and guided models provide - a systematic, unemotional process that allows you to run your portfolios with "as little interference as humanly possible." We have a variety of different stock models available on the research platform, spanning various sectors and factors. One of the broadest approaches is our Large Cap Core Stock Model, which was launched back in May 2020. A general overview of the model’s structure and recent performance can be found below:

Model Structure

• The NDW Large Cap Core Stock Model was designed to be a core allocation (as the name suggests) for investors seeking a systematic way to invest in individual US equities.
• The Model begins with 500 large-cap US equities, stacks each name up against one another according to relative strength (RS), and seeks to hold the top 30 names from that RS ranking.
• If a name falls into the bottom two-thirds of the RS rankings at the end-of-month evaluation, it is sold and replaced by the next highest ranked stock not already held by the model.
• We also add a single-sector exposure cap of 40% toward any one sector.
• More specific information can be found in the Model Info File

As you can see from the recent returns, the systematic approach of the model has been beneficial. However, it is important to keep in mind that not every stock “picked” by the model is going to be a winner every time. Instead, the overall model seeks to be a winner over time. Some names will certainly be big winners, like DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), which has been a holding in the portfolio since August 31, 2023, longer than any of the other positions. Over that time, DASH returned over 197% (through 9/8), compared to the 44% gain of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Other names will not be as additive, but that is why we maintain a strict sell discipline. Losers are automatically dropped from the portfolio, allowing the model to rotate into a new area of strength.

The 30 holdings currently represent seven of the 11 broad sectors. Consumer cyclicals make up the largest allocation at just over 34%, followed by technology at about 20% of the portfolio. The current holdings show no exposure toward real estate, consumer staples, energy, or communication services.

There are a variety of ways to implement a systematic process throughout the NDW research platform. Whether it be the security screener, broad rankings, buy lists, or models – different approaches work best for different investors. The important thing is implementing a process and sticking with it. Those looking to stay up to date on trades within the Large Cap Core Model can set alerts through our Model Portfolios page, allowing the system to notify you have any changes.

Daily Option Ideas for September 9, 2025