With the U.S. Dollar's recent weakness, we took a look at the WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund (CEW) in order to understand how Emerging Currencies have fared.
Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email ben.jones@dorseywright.com.
Data represented in the table below is through 5/16/2017:
Broad Market Commodities Report
Portfolio View - Commodity Indices
| Symbol | Name | Price | Trend | RS Signal | RS Col. | 200 Day MA | Weekly Mom |
| CL/ | Crude Oil Continuous | 48.59 | Negative | Buy | X | 49.15 | -3W |
| DBLCIX | Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodities Index | 306.70 | Negative | Sell | O | 315.10 | -3W |
| DWACOMMOD | DWA Continuous Commodity Index | 454.59 | Negative | Sell | O | 450.21 | +1W |
| GC/ | Gold Continuous | 1236.80 | Positive | Buy | O | 1251.44 | -3W |
| GN/Y | S&P GSCI Index Spot | 381.77 | Negative | Sell | O | 377.70 | -3W |
| HG/ | Copper Continuous | 2.55 | Positive | Sell | X | 2.44 | -14W |
| ZG/ | Corn (Electronic Day Session) Continuous | 367.75 | Positive | Sell | O | 350.57 | -1W |
| Links to Additional Summaries |
Additional Commentary:
In yesterday’s “Were You Aware…?” we noted that the NYCE U.S. Dollar Index Spot DX/Y had fallen to give a third consecutive sell signal since the January peak, and also violated the bullish support line. The Dollar’s near-term weakness is not a new story, and from a relative standpoint the U.S. Dollar group in DALI has ranked 2nd (out of 3) since March of last year. The one group that ranks above the U.S. Dollar group in DALI is Emerging Currencies. For more perspective on the recent trends of broad Emerging Currencies today we want to take a look at the chart of the WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund CEW. Since bottoming at $15.75 in August of 2015, CEW has rallied to give three consecutive buy signals. The most recent buy signal occurred at $18.50 in April, causing the Fund to move back into a positive trend. This is the first time since December 2014 that the chart has been in a positive trend, and the Fund is trading at levels that have not been seen since July of 2015. Year-to-date, CEW is up 6.75%, while the U.S. Dollar, represented by the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP, has lost 4.20%. At this time, CEW has a fund score of 3.61, which is higher than the average score for funds within the Global Currency group at 1.85. Additionally, with a 3.61 score, CEW is the second highest scoring currency-related ETF in the DWA system, just behind the Brazilian Real (3.71) and Bitcoin (6.00). While the broader Currency asset class sits in last place in our DALI asset class rankings, and remains out of favor, CEW presents a fairly sound technical picture and could be consider by those who may be looking for a currency hedge or alternatives exposure.
