The Nasdaq Dorsey Wright team presents our "Weight of the Evidence" for 2026 linked here. This document explores the current technical pictures across the investable world, highlighting notable changes you need to be aware of ahead of what will undoubtedly be a busy 2026. Note, this document has been approved for Financial Professionals and Non-Professionals alike, so feel free to share with clients as you see fit. 

You can also join our team of experts Thursday, July 8th at 1PM EST via this registration link for a live webinar discussing these topics in more detail with NDW's Senior Portfolio Manager John Lewis. Joining John will be  Nasdaq's Chief Economist Phil Mackintosh and Head of Investment Insights Yanni Angelakos to provide further commentary on the current macroeconomic picture heading into 2026.

It is becoming increasingly clear that when it comes to markets, size matters. As we’ve talked about frequently, the US equity market continues to favor the largest companies leading to the S&P 500 Index to be the most concentrated it has ever been. There are of course smaller companies in the S&P 500 that did well last year, like Western Digital (WDC), which was the best performer in the S&P 500 with a return of 282% with only a 0.10% weighting in the S&P 500. While we usually focus on just a handful of names when talking about market cap and performance, there is a clear signal between size and performance when looking at all 500 stocks in the S&P 500.

In the scatter plot chart below, x-axis is the stock’s weighting in the S&P 500 and the y-axis is its 2025 return. We used a log-scale for the x-axis since it helps to normalize a handful of significant outliers, like the top ten stocks. We then put in a logarithmic line of regression (dotted red line) to see if there was any relationship between size and performance for the entire universe. With an upward slope, the line shows a positive relationship between the size of a company and market performance (the larger a company is, the more likely its performance will be better). The R-squared value for the regression line is 0.09. While this may be small compared to regression lines in other fields, it is a viable signal of a relationship between variables when it comes to financial markets.

As we do each quarter, we will take today’s report to look across different asset classes and focus in on the best and worst performing funds for the 4th quarter and 2025 as a whole. Note, during our screen we filtered out leveraged and inverse funds & put in minimum volume and AUM requirements to focus solely on those funds you are most likely to see come across your desk. We also did our best to avoid similar kinds of funds when possible, (to avoid the entirety of our tables being taken up by silver, for example…) but there will likely be similar themes during our analysis.

We will start broadly by peering across all of the different asset groups at once. As you might expect, our top ten performers across both the 4th quarter and 2025 as a whole were littered with precious metals options. Outside of those groups, other international names (South Korea, Chile, Spain) found their way as top performers. Many of the worst performers came from names with large crypto exposure. Other full year underperformers came from dividend focused areas, which failed to keep up broader markets during what ended up being quite a productive year.

Speaking of international options, our table on the right dives underneath the hood of that group specifically. As mentioned previously, global options flexed their muscles throughout 2025, seeing major benchmarks put in constructive years against domestic markets. Points of interest come from a major performance bump in Q4 from Latin American names. China and India were major detractors from a pure performance perspective… but again its worth emphasizing both emerging and developed markets performed quite well in 2025.

The following tables focus on individual sectors and commodities respectively. For the entire year, the top performers in 2025 are littered with strong precious metals and commodity focused areas. Of interest in terms of Q4 upside sector performers were healthcare options , materials focused areas, semis and airlines. Towards the downside, further lackluster returns came from the likes of crypto & real estate. Similar themes were present for full year results, adding in poor showings from energy representatives and consumer staples. On the commodities front, laggards came in the way of energy & agriculture- both groups remain points of relative weakness as we move into 2026.

Our last set of tables below detail performance trends for the broader fixed income and currencies space. While fixed income as a whole remains a laggard within our longer-term rankings, there were points of strength within the asset class heading into 2026. From a yearly perspective, risk-on options remain leaders as international and convertibles led the way in terms of their total return in 2025. Those themes held largely true throughout the 4th quarter. Underperformers for both the quarter and the year include longer-duration assets. Across the currency space, overall crypto names underperformed for both Q4 and the year as a whole. In terms of more traditional currencies, the US Dollar fell nearly 10% for the entire year… seeing other currencies appreciate against the greenback. 

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 1/6/26:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (4:54)

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