Daily Equity & Market Analysis
Published: Aug 28, 2025
This content is for informational purposes only. This should not be construed as solicitation. The general public should consult their financial advisor for additional information related to investment decisions.

Daily Summary

The Wait for Rate Cuts

With the Fed expected to cut rates next month, should we buy the recent rise in rate sensitive areas?

NDW Prospecting: Capping Your Gas Exposure

Gas prices are currently near multi-year lows, if you’d like to “lock in” the relatively low current prices, you can, by taking a long position in gasoline

Market Distribution Table

The curve has an average reading of 39.73%.

Weekly Video

Weekly Rundown Video – Aug 27, 2025

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

The Wait for Rate Cuts

by Trevor Plesko

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times at the end of last year, and despite a solid overall year for stocks, investors have been left hanging with zero interest rate cuts so far in 2025. However, that may soon change, with an 87% implied probably of cuts in September after Fed Chairman Powell signaled the potential for cuts at his Jackson Hole speech last week (Source: CME FedWatch). As a result, some interest rate sensitive areas of the market have popped as investors eagerly hold out for their long-awaited cuts. Given the renewed optimism, should we buy the hype or fade the noise for these groups?

Small cap stocks are among the biggest beneficiaries of falling interest rates due to their higher reliance on borrowing and exposure to more floating-rate debt. After lagging large caps for some time, small caps have recently flipped the script. The Russell 2000 (RUT) up 5% over the last month, outpacing the S&P 500 by 3.5%. The index is now less than 4% away from all-time highs after being 29% away earlier this year. This rebound is reflected in the space’s relative strength. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) holds in acceptable fund score of 3.21, in addition to a sharply positive score direction of 2.83, highlighting its significant improvement. That said, large caps still lead in strength, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) scoring two points higher at 5.21.

Homebuilders are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates, as lower rates translate to lower mortgage costs and increased housing demand. After underperforming through April, the group has staged a strong rally, with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) rising 10.3% over the last month. ITB now holds an acceptable fund score 3.49, which is up 2.43 points from its low in mid-June. Although, homebuilders have been dragged down by the larger names in sector such as Lennar (LEN). The equally weighted SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) holds a stronger fund score of 4.90 after completing six consecutive buy signals, making it a stronger fund to look towards.

Interestingly, the bond market has yet to see the same level of bounce as rate sensitive equities. Specifically, the iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) has risen a modest 1% over the last month. This lack of improvement is also reflected in the relative strength of the fund, with it holding a weak fund score of 1.66 despite moving to a positive trend in July. Meanwhile, the fixed income group continues to sit in the last place of DALI. So, despite rate sensitive stocks seeing notable improvement, the same cannot be said for bonds. The group is still far off from returning to acceptable territory, even if it’s been ticking higher recently.

Whether the stock market is getting ahead of themselves on cuts is yet to be determined, but interest rates sensitive stocks are certainly an area to keep an eye on given their improvement, especially if the promised rate cuts finally come to fruition. Meanwhile, bonds continue to be laggards, suggesting that optimism is still concentrated in equities for now. Overall, investors should monitor both groups for signs of improvement in the coming months once rates (hopefully) move lower. 

Gasoline (UJ/) now sits at $1.97, down almost 20% from this year’s high and only about $0.10 above the multi-year low it reached in September 2024. Falling oil & gas prices are not a positive development for energy companies and have helped keep the energy sector near the bottom of the DALI rankings for most of 2025. But they are a welcome development for consumers who are paying less at the pump.

There’s no way to know for certain whether energy prices will continue to decline. But, as drivers, almost all of us have inherent exposure to gas prices. So, if you’d prefer to go ahead and “lock in” the relatively low current prices, you can, by taking a long position in gasoline. If the price of gasoline rises, your increased expense at the pump will be offset by an increase in the value of your hedge and if gas prices decline, the decline in value of your hedge will be offset by the lower cost of filling your tank.

Capping Your Gas Exposure 

In years past, the financial instruments tied to the price of gasoline were pretty much limited to futures, which were often inaccessible or impractical for the average investor. However, we now have a myriad of commodity-based ETFs, including the US Gasoline Fund (UGA), which tracks the futures market for gasoline, and offers us a relatively simple method for hedging gasoline exposure that is accessible to retail investors.

We first talked about how using ETFs to hedge against gas prices several years ago, however, the recent uptick in wholesale inflation has prompted a few requests from clients for an update on this technique, which provides a nice discussion point for clients as well as prospects. Regardless of whether the application of such a strategy actually makes sense for any given client, the conversation can only further your brand as an expert in your craft; and so we decided to revisit this topic today. We were reminded of a link a client forwarded to us a couple of years ago that we'll pass along; www.dqydj.net has a "How to Hedge Your Gas?" calculator that utilizes shares of UGA. That site could make your efforts a bit more scalable, but the math is hardly onerous on its own. Naturally the price you pay at the pump on your block has a few added variables above and beyond the price of gasoline futures (state gas taxes, local competition/markup, etc.), but assuming all else is equal, shares of UGA should be a good hedge against a client's gasoline price risk.

Again, there is no advanced math required to determine the exposure to UGA needed to effectively put a "locking gas cap" on a client's gasoline expenses. We'll walk thru it quickly: Let's say you drive 15,000 miles per year and your vehicle gets 25 miles per gallon. If gas prices are $3.38/gallon today (based off EIA's 8/19/24 average retail prices) you need a stockpile of 600 gallons or $2,028 worth of gas to get you through the next year. If your spouse, like most, would balk at the idea of installing a 600-gallon gas tank in your backyard, shares of UGA are perhaps your best alternative for hedging the risk of further increases in gasoline. $1,878 of UGA would effectively hedge your personal risk, with UGA trading around $63.48 this equals about 30 shares of UGA.

Other Considerations

If gas prices fall to $2.50/gallon in your area, you still have shares of UGA with a cost basis of around $3.38 per gallon, and so you will not truly participate in the gas price relief that your neighbors are enjoying, but should gas prices move toward $3.75-$4 per gallon your increased fuel cost will be offset by the appreciation of your UGA shares. If your spouse drives another 10,000 miles per year and your teenagers do as well, you will want to adjust the calculation to reflect that. Also, depending upon the type of account such a hedge is placed within, some consideration of taxable gains in UGA may be appropriate. For your average client, the gains from locking in a lower gas price may not be eye-popping but it provides a welcome topic for discussion outside of the Fed and interest rates and shows off your financial savvy and outside-of-the-box thinking.

Market Distribution Table The Distribution Report below places Major Market ETFs and Indices into a bell curve style table based upon their current location on their 10-week trading band.

The middle of the bell curve represents areas of the market that are "normally" distributed, with the far right being 100% overbought on a weekly distribution and the far left being 100% oversold on a weekly distribution.

The weekly distribution ranges are calculated at the end of each week, while the placement within that range will fluctuate during the week. In addition to information regarding the statistical distribution of these market indexes, a symbol that is in UPPER CASE indicates that the RS chart is on a Buy Signal. If the symbol is dark Green then the stock is on a Point & Figure buy signal, and if the symbol is bright Red then it is on a Point & Figure sell signal.

 

Average Level

39.73

< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >
                       
               
Buy signalefa
     
               
Buy signaleem
     
               
Buy signalQQQ
     
               
Buy signallqd
Buy signalONEQ
   
               
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Buy signalVOOV
   
               
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Buy signalSPY
   
               
Buy signalIJH
Buy signalijr
   
               
Buy signalagg
Buy signalXLG
   
         
Sell signalUSO
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Buy signaldia
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Sell signaldx/y
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< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >

 

AGG iShares US Core Bond ETF
USO United States Oil Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
DX/Y NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF
LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF
IJH iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund
ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF
IJR iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund
VOOG Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
VOOV Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
XLG Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF
   

 

Long Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. Restaurants $206.26 hi 190s - mid 210s 262 178 5 TA rating, top 50% of REST sector matrix, LT RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 9/18
BSX Boston Scientific Corporation Healthcare $105.87 99 - 108 133 91 5 for 5'er, top 25% of HEAL sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, spread triple top
TSCO Tractor Supply Company Retailing $62.38 upper 50s 66 50 3 for 5'er, top half of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Leisure $276.40 260s - low 280s 364 216 5 TA rating, top 50% of LEIS sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, consec buy signals, buy on pullback.
RPM RPM, Inc. Chemicals $125.89 110 - 120 150 99 5 for 5'er, top half of favored CHEM sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, bullish catapult, pos trend flip, 1.7% yield
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. Retailing $229.12 200s - low 210s 240 178 4 for 5'er, top half of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, buy on pullback
SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation Wall Street $96.87 lo-hi 90s 120 76 5 TA rating, top 20% of WALL sector matrix, LT peer RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback
AXP American Express Company Finance $322.46 288-lo 310s 424 236 5 TA rating, top 20% of FINA sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, consec buy signals, buy on pullback
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. Utilities/Electricity $82.84 mid 80s 95 74 3 for 5'er, favored EUTI sector, spread quintuple top, buy on pullback, 2.9% yield
MS Morgan Stanley Wall Street $149.38 140s - lo 150s 186 122 5 TA rating, top 33% of WALL sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, consec buy signals, recent breakout
PEGA Pegasystems Inc Software $52.88 low-to-mid 50s 79 42 5 for 5'er, top 20% of favored SOFT sector matrix, buy on pullback, R-R>2.0
FOXA Fox Corporation Class A Media $59.52 hi 50s - lo 60s 70 52 5 TA rating, LT pos trend, LT peer RS buy, shakeout completion, pos wkly mom
ICE IntercontinentalExchange Inc. Wall Street $177.30 mid 170s - mid 180s 228 152 5 for 5'er, top half of favored WALL sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, buy on pullback
ACT Enact Holdings Inc Finance $38.13 mid-to-hi 30s 48 31 5 for 5'er, top half of favored FINA sector matrix, spread quad top, 2.2% yield
LRCX Lam Research Corporation Semiconductors $103.67 95 - lo 100s 135 79 5 TA rating, top 25% of SEMI sector matrix, LT RS buy, buy-on-pulback
HAS Hasbro, Inc. Leisure $81.56 mid-to-hi 70s 96 64 4 for 5'er, top third of LEIS sector matrix, new RS buy signal, triple top, 3.44% yield
SNX TD SYNNEX Corporation Computers $149.15 140-lo 150s 181 118 5 TA rating, top 25% of COMP sector matrix, LT RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 9/25
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Leisure $359.07 320s - 340s 424 296 5 for 5'er, #2 of 59 in LEIS sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, bearish signal reversal, R-R~2.0
ETR Entergy Corporation Utilities/Electricity $89.55 mid-to-hi 80s 101 75 5 for 5'er, top 20% of EUTI sector matrix, triple top, buy on pullback, 2.7% yield
GIL Gildan Activewear Textiles/Apparel $55.38 low-hi $50s 80 43 5 TA rating, top 20% of TEXT sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, pos wkly and monthly mom, buy on pullback
BROS Dutch Bros Inc. Class A Restaurants $73.21 hi 60s - mid 70s 97 61 4 for 5'er top 25% of REST sector matrix, spread quintuple top, pos trend flip, good R-R
EMR Emerson Electric Co. Machinery and Tools $133.45 hi 120s - lo 140s 175 114 5 TA rating, top 33% of MACH sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, consec buy signals

Short Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes

Follow-Up Comments

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NDW Spotlight Stock

 

EMR Emerson Electric Co. ($134.34) R - Machinery and Tools - EMR has a 5 for 5 TA rating and sits in the top third of the favored machinery and tools sector RS matrix. The stock has been on an RS buy signal against the market since last November, and moved back to a positive trend in May. Over the past few weeks, EMR pulled back from all-time highs before reversing back up into Xs. This sets up a series of higher lows with current positioning just below the mid-point on its trading band. Exposure may be considered in the high $120s to low $140s. Our initial stop will be positioned at $114, which would violate multiple support levels on the default chart. The bullish price objective of $175 will serve as our upside target, offering a reward-to-risk north of 2-to-1.

 
      24                   25                                
150.00                                               X         150.00
148.00                                               X O       148.00
146.00                                               X O       146.00
144.00                                               X 8       144.00
142.00                                               X O       142.00
140.00                                               X O       140.00
138.00                                               X O       138.00
136.00                                             7 O     Mid 136.00
134.00                       X                   X O X     134.00
132.00                       X O X                 X O X     132.00
130.00                       X O X O               X O X     130.00
128.00                       X C X O               X O X     128.00
126.00                       X O X 2               X O X     126.00
124.00                       X O X O               X O       124.00
122.00                       X O X O           X   6         122.00
120.00                       X 1 X O           X O X         120.00
118.00                   X   X O   3             X O X       Bot 118.00
116.00               X   X O X     O X           X O           116.00
114.00           4   X O X O B     O X O         X             114.00
112.00           X O X O 7 8 A     O X O         X             112.00
110.00           X O X O X O X     O   O         X             110.00
108.00           3 O X 6 X O X         O         5             108.00
106.00           X 5 X O   O X         4         X             106.00
104.00           X O       O X         O X       X             104.00
102.00           X         O X         O X O X   X             102.00
100.00           X         O X         O X O X O X             100.00
99.00           X         9 X         O X O X O X           99.00
98.00   X       X         O X       O X O X O X           98.00
97.00   X O     X         O         O X O   O X           97.00
96.00 X O X   X                   O X     O             96.00
95.00   X 1 X O 2                   O X                   95.00
94.00   X O X O X                   O X                   94.00
93.00   X O X O X                   O X                   93.00
92.00   X O   O                     O X                   92.00
91.00 O X                           O                     91.00
90.00 O C                                                 90.00
89.00 O X                                                   89.00
88.00 O X                                                   88.00
87.00 O X                                                   87.00
86.00 O X                                                   86.00
85.00 O X                                                   85.00
84.00 O                                                     84.00
      24                   25                                

 

 

A Agilent Technologies, Inc ($124.57) - Healthcare - Shares of A broke a double top at $124 to move back to a buy signal. Today’s move also saw the stock flip its trend back to positive, bringing it up to a 2 for 5’er. However, the weight of the evidence on the stock remains negative given its general lack of relative strength, so it’s one to keep avoiding for the time being. From here, initial resistance lies at $126 and $128.
CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC ($88.69) - Food Beverages/Soap - Shares of CCEP broke a double bottom at $88 for its second consecutive sell signal. Today’s move also saw the stock flip its trend back to negative, bringing it down to a 4 for 5’er. However, CCEP continues to hold market and peer relative strength, keeping it in buy territory for the time being. Those with exposure should monitor their position for signs of further deterioration. From here, support lies at $86 with additional levels at $81 then again in the lower $70s.
H Hyatt Hotels Corp. ($145.47) - Leisure - H broke a triple top at $146 for a second buy signal since moving back into a positive trend. The stock is a 4 for 5'er that maintains positive long-term market and peer RS. Okay to consider here on the breakout. Note resistance lies at $152. Support can be found in the mid to low $130s.
HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company (South Africa) ADR ($12.78) - Precious Metals - HMY fell to a sell signal and a negative trend Thursday when it broke a triple bottom at $13. The negative trend change will drop HMY to an unfavorable 2 for 5'er; the stock also ranks 22nd of 23 names in the precious metals sector matrix. HMY now sits against support at $13, while overhead resistance can be found at $16.
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc ($136.91) - Telephone - LITE broke higher today, establishing a fourth consecutive buy signal and new all-time highs in the process. The stock remains quite a strong RS option... but is a tad overbought at/around current levels. Those a bit nervous should take today's jump as an opportunity to trim/take profits, but largely speaking long exposure is still warranted over cutting positions entirely.

 

Daily Option Ideas for August 28, 2025

Calls
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Robinhood Markets, Inc. Class A - $103.26 HOOD2521K105 Buy the November 105.00 calls at 12.70 93.00
Follow Ups
Name Option Action
AbbVie Inc. ( ABBV) Nov. 195.00 Calls Stopped at 17.30 (CP: 16.45)
RTX Corp. ( RTX) Nov. 155.00 Calls Raise the option stop loss to 9.15 (CP: 11.15)
GE Aerospace ( GE) Nov. 270.00 Calls Raise the option stop loss to 19.05 (CP: 21.05)
Broadcom Ltd ( AVGO) Nov. 300.00 Calls Initiate an option stop loss of 29.40 (CP: 31.40)
Puts
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Deckers Outdoor Corporation - $117.86 DECK2521W115 Buy the November 115.00 puts at 8.70 134.00
Follow Up
Name Option Action
The Clorox Company ( CLX) Oct. 125.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 6.40 (CP: 8.40)
Equifax Inc. ( EFX) Jan. 250.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 16.60 (CP: 18.60)
Covered Writes
New Recommendations
Name Option Sym. Call to Sell Call Price Investment for 500 Shares Annual Called Rtn. Annual Static Rtn. Downside Protection
SoFi Technologies Inc. $ 24.96 SOFI2521K27 Nov. 27.00 2.99 $ 11,670.15 62.54% 49.67% 10.37%
Still Recommended
Name Action
IonQ Inc. ( IONQ) - 41.42 Sell the October 42.00 Calls.
MARA Holdings Inc. ( MARA) - 15.85 Sell the December 18.00 Calls.
Robinhood Markets, Inc. Class A ( HOOD) - 102.92 Sell the November 110.00 Calls.
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Series A ( WBD) - 12.15 Sell the November 12.00 Calls.
Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU) - 117.75 Sell the November 125.00 Calls.
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A ( PLTR) - 156.72 Sell the October 165.00 Calls.
NIKE, Inc. ( NKE) - 78.06 Sell the December 80.00 Calls.
Carnival Corporation ( CCL) - 32.34 Sell the October 32.00 Calls.
Uber Technologies, Inc. ( UBER) - 95.33 Sell the November 97.50 Calls.
FTAI Aviation Ltd ( FTAI) - 149.91 Sell the October 150.00 Calls.
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
Name Covered Write
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. ( NCLH - 24.88 ) December 24.00 covered write.

 

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