There are no changes to any of the iShares models this week. As we do each quarter, today we review the performance of the models covered in this report. After a strong finish to 2024, US equities stumbled in 1Q25 as tariff worries weighed on sentiment, leading the S&P 500 to a loss of 4.6% for the quarter. The iShares Sector Rotation Model (ISHRSECT) trailed is benchmarks, losing just under 7% as the model’s technology exposure hampered performance. The iShares Tactical Model (ISHRTACTICAL) finished the quarter in the red but outperformed both of its benchmarks. ISHRTACTICAL was aided by an underweight to technology and a 30% allocation to the iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) which was added late in the quarter.

While US stocks stumbled, it was a strong quarter for international equities as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) gained 8% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) gained 4.5%. The iShares International Model (ISHRINTL) outperformed both benchmarks gaining just over 11% for the quarter. ISHRINTL was buoyed by its exposure to Poland as the iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL) gained 33% in Q1.

Bonds rose in Q1 as investors sought safety amid the uncertainty. The iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) gained a little over 2% on a price return basis. The iShares Fixed Income Model (ISHRFIXED) trailed its benchmark, gaining 1.2% in Q1.

This section of the report categorizes select iShares Fixed Income and Currency ETPs by their respective fund groups. Along with each group, you can view the Average Group Score, which is an average of the scores of all funds represented in that particular group. Those iShares ETFs that meet or exceed the Average Group Score will be highlighted in green in order to easily view those ETFs that have superior strength within their respective group. You want to focus on those ETFs that exhibit superior strength when looking to add new exposure to a particular group.

The distribution curve places each ETF on a bell curve according to their respective degrees of overbought or oversold status using a 10-week distribution. ETFs that are statistically oversold will appear on the left-hand side of the bell curve, while those that have become statistically overbought will appear on the right-hand side of the bell curve. Perhaps the most useful attribute of this feature is that it displays the entire universe on the curve at one time with an "average level" to give us a general picture of whether the iShare ETF universe is generally overbought on a near-term basis, or generally oversold. Our best opportunities are to buy strong market ETFs that have regressed back toward mean conditions based on market weakness, or have become oversold based upon extreme market weakness. 

Weekly Distribution is a short-term gauge that is most helpful in timing entry and exit points, while the longer-term information of trend and relative strength is a more controlling factor in the decision of whether to buy or sell. The Distribution Curve below displays those ETFs with positive RS in uppercase letters and those ETFs with poor RS versus the market in lowercase letters. As well, those ETFs that are on a Point & Figure Buy signal appear in Green letters, while those on Sell signals can appear in Red letters. Box Color indicates the Sector Status Rating. Green = Favored, Yellow = Average, and Red = Unfavored.

This section of the report categorizes select iShares ETFs by their respective broad group. Along with each group, you can view the Average Group Score, which is an average of the scores of all funds represented in that particular group. Those iShares ETFs that meet or exceed the Average Group Score will be highlighted in green in order to easily view those ETFs that have superior strength within their respective group. You want to focus on those ETFs that exhibit superior strength when looking to add new exposure to a particular group.

Weekly Updates: No changes.