Daily Equity & Market Analysis
Published: Dec 18, 2025
This content is for informational purposes only. This should not be construed as solicitation. The general public should consult their financial advisor for additional information related to investment decisions.

Daily Summary

Sourcing Income in the Dividend Drought

Dividend stocks have been among the worst performers not only this year but also across the last several years. With domestic dividend stocks in the gutter, is the group due for some rebound, or are there other areas we can look for income?

NDW Prospecting: Emerging Strength in Healthcare

Healthcare currently ranks eighth in the DALI sector rankings and hasn't climbed higher than sixth in the last three years. However, a trip to the Asset Class Group Scores page tells a different story.

Weekly Video

Weekly Rundown Video – Dec 17, 2025

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Dividends stocks are a backbone of many portfolios, especially among older clients and retirees that rely on that income. Unfortunately for these individuals, dividend stocks have been among the worst performers not only this year but also across the last several years. With dividend stocks in the gutter, is the group due for some rebound, or are there other areas we can look for income?

The Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF (PEY) has historically been among the better dividend funds out there, but with most dividend stocks floundering, the fund has reached historic levels of market underperformance. The fund is down YTD, below levels it reached in May of 2021, and its last three years are quite literally its worst on record. Specifically, PEY has gained 17.2% over the last three years, lagging the S&P 500 by 65%, which is the worst three-year span for the fund by a full 15%. All this relative underperformance has culminated in significant lack of relative strength. PEY holds an extremely weak fund score of 1.13, which is 3.87 points behind the iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV). That gap between the two funds is near the largest ever, so it could be some time before we see the group’s strength rebound.

Since many investors live on their dividend income, it’s not realistic to cut those names out of a portfolio entirely, even during period of weakness like this one. Domestic equities do have individual dividend names that offer strength (many of which can be found on the yield buy list), but another area that investors could look toward for is international equities. Unlike the domestic market dominated by leadership in risk-on areas, international equities have been led by more value-oriented areas, including dividend stocks.

One prime example of this is the iShares Dow Jones International Select Dividend ETF (IDV). The fund has traded in a positive trend for nearly three year and is on a streak of three consecutive buy signals after gaining more than 40% this year. IDV also holds a near-perfect fund score of 5.89 that’s 4.6 point higher than PEY. That fund score difference between the two is currently at its widest spread recorded, so it makes more sense than ever to look for dividend names abroad rather than domestically. While dividends broadly remain out of favor, those willing to get creative can still take advantage of select areas of strength like these where momentum is most prominent. Remember, international names carry with them different risks than those here domestically, something to keep in mind when considering suitability within client portfolios. 

 

One could be forgiven for thinking there isn't much going on in the healthcare sector. It currently ranks eighth in the DALI sector rankings, putting in underweight territory, and hasn't climbed higher than sixth in the last three years. However, a trip to the Asset Class Group Scores (ACGS) page tells a different story. In the ACGS rankings, healthcare currently sits in the top decile (13th out of all 134 groups in the system), higher than any of the 10 other GICS sectors; meanwhile, the biotechnology subsector ranks fourth of all groups in the system. Biotechnology and healthcare also have the two highest score directions of all groups in the system at 3.94 and 3.25 respectively, showing that both groups have improved significantly over the short-term.

The Asset Class Group Scores and DALI serve the same basic function – identifying areas of strength and weakness in the market. So, why is healthcare in the bottom tier of the DALI rankings while the ACGS show a positive technical picture for the sector? The simple answer is that the ACGS change more quickly than DALI. DALI relies solely on relative strength, utilizing matrices and proxy funds to derive its rankings. If a sector has had a long period of underperformance, it can take a while for it to generate the relative strength buy signals required to climb the rankings. The ACGS also relies on relative strength, but it also incorporates metrics that pick up absolute performance – like move averages and trend – which can often change more quickly. This does not mean that one system is inherently better or worse than the other – only that the ACGS may show signs of a developing trend earlier than DALI.

And so, currently we see signs of strength building in healthcare and biotech, which have not yet begun to show up in DALI. Whether this turns into a long-term trend that see healthcare climb to upper echelon of the DALI rankings remains to be seen, but there is already enough meat on the proverbial bone to for trend followers to consider increasing their healthcare and/or biotech exposure. And if you’re concerned about the market’s lackluster performance over the short term, healthcare has the added benefit of being a traditionally defensive sector.

Those interested in adding broad healthcare exposure can consider the State Street Healthcare Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). XLV has a 4.26 fund score which is well within the favorable score range but is 0.32 points lower than the average for all healthcare funds; it also has a positive 3.07 score direction.

While XLV is certainly an acceptable option, the highest scoring funds within the sector are primarily biotech or pharmaceutical focused. The iShares US Pharmaceuticals ETF (IHE) has a near-perfect 5.82 fund score, which is 1.25 points better than the average for all healthcare funds, and a positive 4.41 score direction. In November, the fund gave a buy signal on market RS chart for the first time since 2021. On its default chart, IHE has completed four consecutive buy signals and currently sits just off its all-time high. The fund currently sits in heavily overbought territory with a weekly overbought/oversold (OBOS) reading of 81%, so those interested in adding exposure may be best served to do so on a pullback into the lower $80s.

The Invesco Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBBQ) has a similarly strong 5.78 fund score and positive 5.09 score direction. Like IHE it also moved to a market RS buy signal in November.  IBBQ also trades just off the all-time high it reached last month, but unlike IHE, it remains in actionable territory on its 10-week band with a weekly OBOS reading of 52%. On its default chart, IBBQ moved from $19.75 to $29 in a single column of Xs and shows no nearby support on its default chart. However, its more sensitive $0.25-per-box chart shows that IBBQ briefly reversed down and found support at $26 in November before continuing higher.

Market Distribution Table The Distribution Report below places Major Market ETFs and Indices into a bell curve style table based upon their current location on their 10-week trading band.

The middle of the bell curve represents areas of the market that are "normally" distributed, with the far right being 100% overbought on a weekly distribution and the far left being 100% oversold on a weekly distribution.

The weekly distribution ranges are calculated at the end of each week, while the placement within that range will fluctuate during the week. In addition to information regarding the statistical distribution of these market indexes, a symbol that is in UPPER CASE indicates that the RS chart is on a Buy Signal. If the symbol is dark Green then the stock is on a Point & Figure buy signal, and if the symbol is bright Red then it is on a Point & Figure sell signal.

 

Average Level

-5.43

< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >
                       
       
Sell signallqd
             
       
Sell signalicf
             
       
Sell signaluso
 
Buy signalhyg
         
       
Sell signaldx/y
Buy signalgsg
Buy signalgcc
         
       
Buy signalagg
Buy signalONEQ
Buy signaliwm
Buy signalrsp
       
       
Buy signalief
Buy signalXLG
Buy signalshy
Buy signalijr
       
     
Sell signaltlt
Buy signalQQQ
Buy signalefa
Buy signaldvy
Buy signalVOOV
Buy signalfxe
     
     
Buy signalEEM
Buy signalVOOG
Buy signalSPY
Buy signalIJH
Buy signaldia
Buy signalGLD
     
< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >

 

AGG iShares US Core Bond ETF
USO United States Oil Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
DX/Y NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF
LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF
IJH iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund
ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF
IJR iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund
VOOG Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
VOOV Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
XLG Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF
   

 

Long Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. Machinery and Tools $256.73 mid 240s - ow 260s 316 208 5 for 5'er, top half of favored MACH sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, pos trend flip
BAC Bank of America Banks $54.55 49 - 54 67 44 4 for 5'er, top 25% of favored BANK sector matrix, LT pos peer RS, bullish catapult, 2.1% yield, Earn. 1/14
CME CME Group, Inc. Wall Street $273.74 260s - 270s 312 224 4 for 5'er, middle of WALL sector matrix, triple top breakout, 1.8% yield
AFL AFLAC Incorporated Insurance $110.50 108 - 115 143 95 4 for 5'er, top half of INSU sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, spread triple top, 2% yield
GFI Gold Fields Limited (South Africa) ADR Precious Metals $44.61 40 - 44 58 35 4 for 5'er, top third of PREC sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, good R-R, 1.8% yield
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation Insurance $167.14 mid 150s - hi 160s 206 134 4 TA rating, top 33% of INSU sector matrix, LT mkt RS buy, yield > 2%, pos momentum, buy-on-pullback
LAMR Lamar Advertising Company Media $129.74 120s - low 130s 158 110 4 for 5'er, top half of MEDI sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, spread triple top 4.8% yield
HSBC HSBC Holding PLC (United Kingdom) ADR Banks $76.10 mid-to-hi 60s 86 54 5 for 5'er, top 10% of BANK sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, buy on pullback, 3% yield
ABCB Ameris Bancorp Banks $77.51 70s 92 77 5 for 5'er, top 25% of BANK sector matrix, LT pos peer RS, spread quintuple top, 1.1% yield
ORI Old Republic International Insurance $45.80 lo-mid 40s 76 384 4 TA rating, top 20% of insurance sector RS matrix, consec buy signals, recent RS buy, R-R > 4
DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. Building $152.00 150s - low 160s 222 128 4 for 5'er, top half of BUIL sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, pos trend flip, R-R~2.0
LAZ Lazard Inc. Wall Street $50.39 hi 40s - low 50s 69 41 5 for 5'er, middle of WALL sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, triple top, buy on pullback, good R-R
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Leisure $293.00 hi 260s - low 280s 328 240 5 for 5'er, top half of LEIS sector matrix LT pos peer & mkt RS, quintuple top
HCA HCA Healthcare Inc. Healthcare $471.85 450s - lo 500s 588 384 5 TA rating, top 20% of HEAL sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT peer RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback
LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. Machinery and Tools $242.14 240s 320 196 5 for 5'er, top third of favored MACH sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, triple top, 1.3% yield
PII Polaris Inc. Leisure $69.33 mid-to-hi 60s 77 59 4 for 5'er, top 10% of LEIS sector matrix, bullish catapult, pos trend flip, 3.8% yield
THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation Healthcare $195.02 190 - mid 200s 286 170 5 TA rating, top 50% of HEAL sector matrix, LT RS buy, buy-on-pullback
AU AngloGold Ashanti Limited (South Africa) ADR Precious Metals $84.54 low-to-mid 80s 101 71 5 for 5'er, 4th of 30 in PREC sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, triple top, 3% yield
FLS Flowserve Corporation Machinery and Tools $69.20 hi 60s - lo 70s 91 54 5 TA rating, top 10% of MACH sector matrix, LT RS buy, buy-on-pullback

Short Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes

Removed Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
SGI Somnigroup International Inc Household Goods $88.98 80s 125 73 Moved to a sell signal. We will raise our stop to $73.

Follow-Up Comments

Comment
There are currently no follow-up comments.

NDW Spotlight Stock

 

FLS Flowserve Corporation ($69.50) R - Machinery and Tools - FLS has a 5 for 5 TA rating and sits in the top decile of the favored machinery and tools sector RS matrix. The stock has been on an RS buy signal against the market since 2023 and pushed to a new multi-year high earlier this month. We have seen consolidation over the past few weeks, as FLS has normalized toward the middle of its trading band. Exposure may be considered in the upper $60s to low $70s. Our initial stop will be positioned at $54, which would violate multiple support levels and move the stock to a negative trend. The bullish price objective of $91 will serve as our price target.

 
      25                                                    
74.00                                                 X       74.00
73.00                                                 X O     73.00
72.00                                     X           C O     72.00
71.00                                     X O X       X O     71.00
70.00                                 X   B O X O     X O     70.00
69.00                                 X O X O X O X   X O     69.00
68.00                                 X O X O   O X O X       68.00
67.00                                 X O       O X O X       67.00
66.00                               X         O X O         66.00
65.00     X                         X         O             65.00
64.00     X O                       X                     Mid 64.00
63.00     X O X                     X                       63.00
62.00 X   X O X O                   X                       62.00
61.00 X O X O X O                   X                       61.00
60.00 X O 1 O   2                   X                       60.00
59.00 X C X     O           X       X                       59.00
58.00 X O X     O           X O     X                       58.00
57.00 X O       O           X O X   X                       57.00
56.00 X         O             X O 9 O X                       56.00
55.00 B         O             7 8 X O X                     55.00
54.00 X         O             X O X O X                     54.00
53.00 X         3 X           X O X O X                     53.00
52.00 X         O X O     X   X O   A X                     52.00
51.00           O X O     X O X     O X                     51.00
50.00           O X O     X O X     O X                   Bot 50.00
49.00           O X O     X O X     O                       49.00
48.00         O X O     X 6 X                             48.00
47.00         O X 4     X O X                             47.00
46.00         O   O     5 O                               46.00
45.00             O X   X                                 45.00
44.00             O X O X                                 44.00
43.00               O X O X                                 43.00
42.00               O X O X                                 42.00
41.00               O X O X                                 41.00
40.00               O X O                                   40.00
39.00               O X                                     39.00
38.00               O                                       38.00
      25                                                    

 

 

CVE Cenovus Energy Inc. ($16.50) - Oil - CVE gave an initial sell signal Thursday when it broke a double bottom at $16.50. The outlook for the stock remains modestly positive however, as CVE is a 3 for 5'er that ranks in the top quintile of the oil sector matrix. From here, CVE shows no additional support until $13.50.
DELL Dell Technologies Inc Class C ($123.27) - Computers - DELL fell Thursday to break a double bottom at $126 before falling to $124 intraday. This stock still maintains a 3 for 5 TA rating, but has shown notable technical deterioration. Further support can be seen at $118 and $116, which is also the current location of the positive trend line. Overhead resistance may be seen initially at $142.
EAT Brinker International Inc ($152.17) - Restaurants - EAT reversed into Xs and broke a double top at $152 to complete a bullish catapult as shares rallied to $154. The move penetrates the bearish resistance line after having been in a negative trend since September, which will increase the stock up to a 3 for 5'er. Along with the positive trend on the point and figure chart, EAT has maintained near-term relative strength against the market and its peer group since November. From here, note resistance at current prices along with in the upper $150s and at $170. Initial support lies at $144, while additional can be found at $136.
WTS Watts Industries, Inc. ($280.60) - Machinery and Tools - WTS pushed higher today, posting a second consecutive buy signal in the process. The strong 5/5'er now faces resistance at all-time highs established early in October. Look for the breakout from there as an action point, which you can set an alert for using the bell icon on the chart page. Support is offered between $260-$268.

 

Daily Option Ideas for December 18, 2025

Calls
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Apple Inc. - $270.72 AAPL2620C270 Buy the March 270.00 calls at 15.65 240.00
Follow Ups
Name Option Action
McDonald's Corporation ( MCD) Feb. 315.00 Calls Initiate an option stop loss of 12.35 (CP: 14.35)
Alphabet Inc. Class A ( GOOGL) Mar. 300.00 Calls Initiate an option stop loss of 21.45 (CP: 23.45)
Puts
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Chipotle Mexican Grill 'A' - $37.87 CMG2620O37.5 Buy the March 37.50 puts at 2.77 43.00
Follow Up
Name Option Action
Starbucks Corporation ( SBUX) Mar. 80.00 Puts Stopped at 90.00 (CP: 89.59)
Covered Writes
New Recommendations
Name Option Sym. Call to Sell Call Price Investment for 500 Shares Annual Called Rtn. Annual Static Rtn. Downside Protection
Micron Technology, Inc. $ 225.52 MU2620C260 Mar. 260.00 28.25 $ 112,882.35 55.75% 44.73% 10.13%
Still Recommended
Name Action
Tesla Inc. ( TSLA) - 467.26 Sell the February 450.00 Calls.
SoFi Technologies Inc. ( SOFI) - 25.27 Sell the February 30.00 Calls.
Estee Lauder Companies ( EL) - 105.30 Sell the March 105.00 Calls.
Amphenol Corporation ( APH) - 126.51 Sell the March 140.00 Calls.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. ( LVS) - 66.49 Sell the February 67.50 Calls.
Tapestry Inc. ( TPR) - 122.19 Sell the February 125.00 Calls.
Wayfair Inc. ( W) - 102.47 Sell the January 100.00 Calls.
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
Name Covered Write
No Additions to This Section

 

Most Requested Symbols