iShares (Thurs.)
Published: Dec 08, 2016
This content is for informational purposes only. This should not be construed as solicitation. The general public should consult their financial advisor for additional information related to investment decisions.

Today there is a change within the iShares Sector Rotation Model.  The buy and sell decisions within this portfolio are determined based on individual RS charts for each of the members in the potential universe versus the iShares Dow Jones US ETF IYY.  Over the course of the past week, there has been enough of a price dispersion between the iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF IYH and the IYY to cause a reversal down in to O's on the RS chart.  This reversal tells us that IYH is weakening relative to the broad market and as a result, we have sold the IYH out of the portfolio.  The IYH was previously added to the model back on January 7th of 2015.  While it was a leader within that portfolio during different times of its holding period, it ultimately contributed a loss of -3.34 while in the portfolio.  Fortunately, the model still managed to beat both the IYY and the SPX, rallying 11.73 versus 10.63% and 10.82%, respectively (from 1/7/15-12/7/16).  As a result of this change, the model has rid itself of all healthcare exposure, as it sold out of Biotech IBB earlier in the year.  Additionally, each of the remaining 10 positions will be rebalanced to 10% each to reflect an equally weighted portfolio. 

The distribution curve places each ETF on a bell curve according to their respective degrees of overbought or oversold status using a 10-week distribution. ETFs that are statistically oversold will appear on the left-hand side of the bell curve, while those that have become statistically overbought will appear on the right-hand side of the bell curve. Perhaps the most useful attribute of this feature is that it displays the entire universe on the curve at one time with an "average level" to give us a general picture of whether the iShare ETF universe is generally overbought on a near-term basis, or generally oversold. Our best opportunities are to buy strong market ETFs that have regressed back toward mean conditions based on market weakness, or have become oversold based upon extreme market weakness. 

Weekly Distribution is a short-term gauge that is most helpful in timing entry and exit points, while the longer-term information of trend and relative strength is a more controlling factor in the decision of whether to buy or sell. The Distribution Curve below displays those ETFs with positive RS in uppercase letters and those ETFs with poor RS versus the market in lowercase letters. As well, those ETFs that are on a Point & Figure Buy signal appear in Green letters, while those on Sell signals can appear in Red letters. 

 

Average Level: 38.60

The average Bullish Percent reading this week is 58.38% up 1.27% from the previous week

                       
                     
                     
                     
                     
                     
                   
                 
             
             
           
       
       
       
       
     
     
 
<--100 -100--80 -80--60 -60--40 -40--20 -20-0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 100->

 

This section of the report categorizes select iShares ETFs by their respective broad group. Along with each group, you can view the Average Group Score, which is an average of the scores of all funds represented in that particular group. Those iShares ETFs that meet or exceed the Average Group Score will be highlighted in green in order to easily view those ETFs that have superior strength within their respective group. You want to focus on those ETFs that exhibit superior strength when looking to add new exposure to a particular group.

Small Cap Funds Symbol Name Score
Average Group Score: 4.2 IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF 5.84
IJR iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index Fund 5.71
IJT iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Growth ETF 5.59
IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF 4.81
IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF 4.41
IWO iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF 3.27
Sector Funds Symbol Name Score
Average Group Score: 3.3 SOXX iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF 5.93
IAI iShares U.S. Broker Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF 5.80
IAI iShares U.S. Broker Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF 5.80
IEZ iShares U.S. Oil Equip. & Svcs. ETF 5.76
ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF 5.74
IGN iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF 5.72
IAT iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF 5.72
IEO iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF 5.64
IYC iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF 5.21
IGV iShares North American Tech-Software ETF 4.82
IYT iShares U.S. Transportation ETF 4.71
IGE iShares North American Natural Resources ETF 4.66
IYE iShares U.S. Energy ETF 4.61
IYM iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF 4.50
IAK iShares U.S. Insurance ETF 4.46
IYW iShares U.S. Tech. ETF 4.36
IHI iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF 3.83
IYJ iShares U.S. Industrial ETF 3.81
IYF iShares U.S. Financial ETF 3.65
ITB iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 3.25
IYZ iShares U.S. Telecom ETF 3.03
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF 2.89
IHF iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF 2.50
IYH iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF 2.47
IYK iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF 2.15
IDU iShares U.S. Utilities ETF 1.84
IBB iShares NASDAQ Biotech ETF 1.66
IHE iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF 1.20
Mid Cap Funds Symbol Name Score
Average Group Score: 3.3 IJJ iShares S&P MidCap 400 Value ETF 5.83
IJH iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index Fund 4.83
IWS iShares Russell Midcap Value ETF 4.73
IJK iShares S&P MidCap 400 Growth ETF 4.56
IWR iShares Russell Midcap ETF 4.52
IWP iShares Russell Midcap Growth ETF 4.09
Large Cap Funds Symbol Name Score
Average Group Score: 3.2 IWY iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF 3.85
IVE iShares S&P 500 Value ETF 3.78
IVW iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF 3.70
IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF 3.68
IWB iShares Russell 1000 ETF 3.60
IWX iShares Russell Top 200 Value ETF 3.56
IYY iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF 3.49
IWL iShares Russell Top 200 ETF 3.42
OEF iShares S&P 100 ETF 3.41
IVV iShares S&P 500 Index 3.34
Global Funds Symbol Name Score
Average Group Score: 2.8 ILF iShares S&P Latin America 40 ETF 4.29
JPXN iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF 3.69
EPP iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund 3.53
BKF iShares MSCI BRIC ETF 3.04
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 3.00
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF 2.45
IEV iShares Europe ETF 1.94
 

Weekly Updates:

 

iShares Sector Rotation Model ISHRSECT

ETF Name Symbol DWA Suggested Weighting Date Added
iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF ICF 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares North American Natural Resources ETF IGE 10.000% 05/04/2016
iShares S&P GSTI (TM) Technology ETF IGM 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares North American Tech-Software ETF IGV 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF IYC 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Service ETF IYG 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares U.S. Industrial ETF IYJ 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF IYK 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares U.S. Tech. ETF IYW 10.000% 01/07/2015
iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF SOXX 10.000% 01/07/2015

 

 

 

iShares Sector Six Model ISHRSECT6

ETF Name Symbol DWA Suggested Weighting Date Added
iShares North American Tech-Software ETF IGV 16.667% 10/19/2016
iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF IYC 16.667% 03/13/2013
iShares U.S. Tech. ETF IYW 16.667% 11/02/2016
iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF IHI 16.667% 09/21/2016
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ITA 16.667% 10/16/2013
iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF SOXX 16.667% 10/05/2016

 

 

 

iShares Tactical Model ISHRTACTICAL

ETF Name Symbol DWA Suggested Weighting Date Added
iShares North American Tech-Software ETF IGV 12.500% 01/27/2016
iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index Fund IJR 12.500% 06/19/2013
iShares U.S. Consumer Services ETF IYC 12.500% 04/29/2010
iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF IHI 12.500% 01/20/2016
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF IAK 12.500% 11/16/2016
iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF IAT 12.500% 11/16/2016
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ITA 12.500% 08/14/2013
iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF SOXX 12.500% 10/05/2016

 

 

iShares Developed Market Model ISHRDEV

ETF Name Symbol DWA Suggested Weighting Date Added
iShares MSCI Germany ETF EWG 16.667% 02/18/2015
iShares MSCI Belgium ETF EWK 16.667% 06/24/2015
iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF EWL 16.667% 02/18/2015
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF EWN 16.667% 02/18/2015
iShares MSCI Israel Capped ETF EIS 16.667% 01/27/2016
iShares MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market ETF EIRL 16.667% 02/18/2015

 

 

iShares International Model ISHRINTL

ETF Name Symbol DWA Suggested Weighting Date Added
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ 20.000% 07/20/2016
iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund EPU 20.000% 06/29/2016
iShares MSCI Indonesia Investable Market ETF EIDO 20.000% 03/02/2016
iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market ETF ENZL 20.000% 08/03/2016
iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF IYY 20.000% 02/29/2012

 

 

iShares Emerging Market Model ISHREMERG

ETF Name Symbol DWA Suggested Weighting Date Added
iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF EWT 16.667% 02/18/2015
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ 16.667% 10/19/2016
iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund EPU 16.667% 05/18/2016
iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF ERUS 16.667% 07/15/2015
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia ETF EEMA 16.667% 02/18/2015
iShares S&P Latin America 40 ETF ILF 16.667% 11/23/2016

 

 

iShares Smart Beta Model ISHRSMART

ETF Name Symbol DWA Suggested Weighting Date Added
iShares Edge MSCI USA Size Factor ETF SIZE 33.333% 07/20/2011
iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL 33.333% 09/28/2011
iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF VLUE 33.333% 06/19/2013

 

The iShares Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio ISHRSECT is designed to identify major sector themes in the market place through the use of the Point & Figure relative strength tools. The portfolio's composition is based on relative strength and is applied by comparing the iShares inventory components to one another by means of point & figure relative strength analysis. The relative strength analysis is then aggregated using a relative strength "matrix" ranking process, and the number of holdings are then based on the highest realtive strength components within the inventory of holdings. For more information on the portfolio construction and back testing, click here. The iShares Sector Rotation Portfolio will be updated Thursday mornings by 9:30 am EST.

The iShares Tactical ETF Portfolio ISHRTACTICAL is designed to identify major asset class and sector themes in the market place through the use of the Point & Figure relative strength tools. The portfolio's inventory draws primarily on sub-sector iShares, some asset class ETFs, and some commodity based iShares. Relative strength is compared not only to the market indices but also to the other iShares in the inventory. This model will also incorporate the use of fixed income ETFs to help mitigate risk in the portfolio. For more information on the portfolio construction and returns since the inception in 2002, click here. The iShares Tactical Portfolio will be updated Thursday mornings by 9:30 am EST.

The iShares International Model ISHRINTL is designed to identify themes within the international equity asset class, in terms of country and region strength. The portfolio's inventory is made up of approximately 45 International iShares ETFs. We implement the relative strength matrix metholodology as the rules-based decision making strategy for buy and sell decisions within the model. For more information on portfolio construction and performance, you can visit the model's information file attached here.

The iShares Developed Market Model ISHRDEV is designed to identify themes within the developed market space, in terms of country strength. The portfolio's inventory is made up of approximately 27 developed market iShares ETFs. We implement the relative strength matrix metholodology as the rules-based decision making strategy for buy and sell decisions within the model. For more information on portfolio construction and performance, you can visit the model's information file attached here.

The iShares Emerging Market Model ISHREMERG is designed to identify themes within the emerging market space, in terms of country strength. The portfolio's inventory is made up of approximately 27 emerging market iShares ETFs. We implement the relative strength matrix metholodology as the rules-based decision making strategy for buy and sell decisions within the model. For more information on portfolio construction and performance, you can visit the model's information file attached here.

Be sure to check out the iShares DALI Organizer Tool which shows you which asset classes are emphasized in DALI and then provides you with at least one model per all asset classes. In addition, from this one link you can input a dollar amount and then allocate that money across the different models. The iShares DALI Organizer Tool will then automatically calculate exactly how many shares to buy and exactly what percentage that position represents in a portfolio. You can then export this information to excel to potentially interact with your trading system.

 

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