Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 6/24. Access the the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

• US equities were mostly lower on Tuesday (6/23). Technology stocks, specifically semiconductors, were among the largest decliners as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was down almost 8%.
• Tuesday’s action dropped SOXX out of heavily extended territory but even with the pullback, the fund still sits more than 10% from its most recent support at $530.
• Micron (MU) was largest decliner in the SOXX portfolio as it lost more than 13%. While ON Semiconductor (ON), ARM Holdings (ARM) and Credo Technology (CRDO) were all down more than 10%. MU will report earnings today after the close.
• The Dow (.DJIA) was the best performing among the major US indices as it was down only nine bps for the day. Small caps also outperformed large caps as the Russell 2000 (RUT) fell 96 bps, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPX) by about ½ percent.
• International equities saw significant declines. Developed markets held up better than their emerging counterpart as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) lost about 2% while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) fell more than 5.5%. South Korea was among the biggest losers internationally as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) fell more than 12%.
• Precious metals – which are often viewed as a safe haven – were also down. Gold (GC/) was down about 1.25% while silver (SI/) fell more than 5%. Silver now sits at $61.50 on its P&F chart, matching its 2026 low.
• Long-term yields were down slightly which lifted US bonds – the iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) and the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) both notched small gains.

When entering a battle, an army needs strength from both its generals and soldiers to secure victory. Generals are helpless when abandoned by their troops while soldiers are lost without the direction of their general. Just like a battlefield, the stock market requires a delicate balance between the strength of its largest and average names to move higher. An ideal bull market features strong performances from both the generals and soldiers. While markets can rise at the hand of just one of those groups, they do so more easily when both contribute to the upside. Given the importance of the two groups, where do the generals and soldiers stand as we enter the second half of 2026?

The past few years have brought greater focus on the relationship between mega cap stocks serving as generals and the average stocks soldiering behind them. The generals have been leading the battlefield since 2023, with stocks like the Magnificent Seven carrying the market higher while the soldiers took a backseat. That’s not to say the soldiers haven’t moved higher, only that the magnitude of gains from the generals has been stronger. Over the last three years, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is up 44.3%, which is a solid period for average stocks. However, the fifty largest companies have done significantly better than that. The Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG) is up 74.5%, meaning that the generals have outperformed the soldiers by more than 30%. The only time that mega caps held such a wide lead over the average stock has been the 2020s. That said, the spread between the two groups has narrowed significantly over the last several months. At their peak in November, the generals were outperforming the soldiers by 85% over the past three years, so the lead in favor of mega cap stocks has shrunk by more than 50% since then.

To highlight just how much the market has recently diverged from the last several years, we looked at just the last six months as well. Over that span, RSP has gained 8.2%, whereas XLG has gained a meager 0.4%. Said plainly, the soldiers are beating the generals by 7.8% this year, which is the widest margin in favor of the average stock since early 2023. Some investors view cap weight outperformance as potential for greater market fragility, so with the soldiers doing more heavy lifting, it could be a positive sign for the market. Additionally, preferences towards either the generals or soldiers can last for an extended period, as was the case for the soldiers in the 2000s and much of the 2010s. Investors should continue to watch whether soldiers can sustain their recent outperformance versus the mega cap giants that led the market over the last several years.

Another measure of whether the soldiers are entering or leaving the battlefield is the bullish percent indicator (^BPSPX), which tracks the percentage of stocks trading on a buy signal. Periods where indices and participation move in opposite directions are typically referred to as “bearish divergences,” signaling increased fragility due to the market’s dependence on just a few names. Unfortunately, the bullish percent and the S&P 500 have been trending in opposite directions since the tail end of last year. Over the last year, SPX has gained more than 20%, but BPSPX has fallen from 68% to 52%, as seen in the graph below. The last two times the market saw a divergence like this were 2021 and late 2024, both of which preceded some downside in the following year. That said, there isn’t too much cause for concern just yet.

Looking at the traditional BPSPX chart, our current levels of 52% indicate that most stocks are trading on a buy signal and participating in upside. While it has declined over the last year, we would expect the bullish percent to fall from 70% given the difficulty of maintaining such a high reading. The indicator was also approaching low levels around 30% in March as the market declined but has since rebounded. So, while the market and participation have moved in opposite directions over the last year, the two have still followed one another as rallies occurred. For now, current levels are still healthy, and investors should only grow cautious if the indicator has an extended stay below 50% without approaching washed out levels under 30%.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 6/23/26:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (2:12)

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

Call

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) September 18 $1,075 Call

Put

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) September 18 $30 Put

Income (Short Put)

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) July 24 $1050 Short Put