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Imagine you had a crystal ball at the end of last year; it says that the market is up the following amounts through mid-June.

• S&P 500 (SPX): +8.4%
• Nasdaq-100 (NDX): +17.5%
• Technology Sector (XLK): +29%

Looking at those numbers, how much would you assume the Magnificent 7 stocks are up? 50%? 25%? Maybe 15%? Shockingly, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is down more than 2% YTD, standing in stark contrast to other technology and growth areas. MAGS is now essentially flat over the last nine months, and it recently reversed into a column of Os, leaving it without support until the $56 level. Additionally, it lost its near-term market relative strength this month, reversing into a column of Os on its RS chart against SPXEWI. Overall, MAGS holds a mediocre fund score of 3.75, which is 0.61 points lower than the average US Large Cap Growth fund. While technology and growth areas have shined in 2026, their gains have not been driven by the market’s largest companies.

The underperformance of the Magnificent 7 names has been especially notable in the context of technology’s rally. Over the last six months, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) has gained 20.4%, putting it on par with some of its best periods ever. However, MAGS has lost 1.2% over that same period, effectively moving sideways while the broader technology complex surged higher.

While the MAGS ETF has only existed for three years, its historical performance can be approximated using an equally weighted portfolio of the seven stocks, rebalanced quarterly. Currently, the Magnificent 7 portfolio is trailing the Nasdaq-100 by 20% over the last six months, marking the worst period ever seen for the group. The only other periods in which the Magnificent 7 underperformed at all over a six-month span came in 2015, 2019, 2022, and mid-2025.

While there may be an ongoing rotation away from those seven names, each stock presents a unique picture. Meta and Microsoft remain the weakest of the bunch, holding TA scores of 0 and 1, respectively. Those two names, in addition to Tesla, are each down at least double digits over the last six months, serving as the group’s laggards. That said, Tesla has rebounded off its lows, rising to a 4 for 5’er. Nvidia is the lone hold of the group, as the stock’s lack of strength versus its semiconductor peers keeps it at a 3 for 5’er. Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) remain the cream of the crop, each holding a TA score of 4 or higher while gaining at least 5% over the last six months.

While not every Magnificent 7 name remains a source of strength, market leadership has continued to broaden, making equities less reliant on their gains—and that's a healthy development. In contrast to MAGS' 2% YTD decline, the Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF (XMAG), which excludes those companies from the S&P 500, is up an impressive 12.6%, highlighting the strength emerging outside the mega-cap titans. While the Magnificent 7 may still be the market's most important stocks, this bull market isn't as dependent on their performance as it once was.

There are now only seven trading days left in Q2 and the month of June. A couple of weeks ago, we discussed the “Summer Time Blues” – the tendency for lackluster US equity returns in the summer months. While the last few summers have bucked the longer-term trend, early summer has been a bit rocky this year as the S&P 500 (SPX) is down a little over 2% thus far in June (through 6/17). Today we wanted to take a closer look at the historical return tendencies for July.

Historically, July has been one of the stronger summer months – as its median return has been significantly higher than June’s and slightly higher than August’s. July also has also had the smallest drawdown of the summer months at 7.9%, while August’s largest drawdown was more than 14.5%. July has also been more consistent than the rest of the summer as the S&P 500 has recorded a gain in July about 65% of the time since 1928, better than July or August.

Over the last decade, the market has been on something of a hot streak in July. Last year, the S&P gained a little over 2% in July as it continued its recovery from the tariff tantrum, bringing the streak of positive Julys to 11, matching its longest previous streak. That streak, which ran from 1948 through 1959, saw the S&P gain just over 4% on average in July. The current streak, which began in 2014, has not been quite as robust as the S&P has gained an average of 3.25% in July.

As to whether the S&P can stretch its current streak to 12 consecutive Julys of positive returns, a strong finish to June that sees the index finish in the green would bode well for a continuation. When the S&P 500 is positive in June, July has been positive almost 60% of the time. When June has been negative it has been a coin flip – a negative June has been followed by a negative July 50% of the time.

Historically, July has arguably been the best summer month for US stocks as it has a higher median return and has been positive more often than either July or August. Over the last 10+ years, July has been among the most reliably positive months on the calendar as the S&P has notched a gain in each of the last 11 Julys.

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

Call

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) September 18 $325 Call

Additional Data: 

Bid/Ask Spread: 3.53%

Delta: 58.61

Gamma: 0.99

Implied Volatility: 24.50%

Expiry Days: 92

Earnings Date: 7/14/2026

Put

Honeywell International (HON) September 18 $230 Put

Additional Data: 

Bid/Ask Spread: 7.50%

Delta: -45.51

Gamma: 2.59

Implied Volatility: 37.34%

Expiry Days: 92

Earnings Date: 7/23/2026

Income (Covered Call)

Burlington Stores (BURL) July 31 $375 Covered Call

Additional Data: 

Ann. Static Return: 16.02%

Bid/Ask Spread: 60.00%

Delta: 76.28

Gamma: -0.69

Implied Volatility: 37.00%

Expiry Days: 43

Earnings Date: 8/27/2026