Now in the red for the year, gold and silver have shed significant strength over the last few months. We talk about the signals the asset gave you along the way in hopes of learning more for next time.
Gone are the days of watching silver and gold advance 1%+ each day. In fact, since its highs at the end of January, gold representative GLD has fallen over 20% on its default chart. This 20% decline seems bad… but is actually quite “productive” when compared to the near 45% decline for silver (SLV, SI/) over that same time frame. Of course, the question readers will have is, “How could I have known that this was going to occur?” before the massive decline comes down the pipeline. While the true answer is the sad reality that there is no way to know for sure, there are several tools in the toolbox investors could look towards to help identify a weakening asset in real time. Take, for instance, the default chart for GLD, pictured below. After moving to multi-decade levels of overbought on the weekly distribution curve to open 2026, the fund quickly fell back down to earth over the next month or so before trying to get back to those same highs. Unfortunately, buyers were uninterested in reclaiming that point to open March - the first sign of possible weakness on the horizon. Since that point, a broadening supply dynamic has continued to drive prices lower to close out the front half of 2026, seeing GLD now in the red for the year. While not every asset that fails to reclaim highs is bound for a precipitous decline, it can often be a first sign that demand for the asset has contracted meaningfully.
Of course, the astute investor will consider much more than just the absolute technical picture on its own. Taking into consideration relative performance against broader markets (SPXEWI), the fund score can also provide valuable insights into the strength of an asset’s technical picture. Remember, NDW’s fund score system ranges from 0-6, with a “technically acceptable” score coming in above 3.0. Falling below a score of 3.0 on 4/21, someone following the fund score system would have gotten the signal a tad later than someone who noticed the assets inability to reclaim highs in March… but the fund has still declined significantly since then. Point being, those wanting to give positions a bit longer of a leash might focus more on the fund score/technical attribute scoring system than trying to play a more near-term picture like our initial test of its absolute technical stance.
Knowing that GLD has underperformed a broader benchmark like SPXEWI is one thing, but commodities are oftentimes a more unique asset class investors may be apprehensive to simply replace with beta exposure if there are other, technically stronger assets in play. To judge this, we can utilize the continuous commodities matrix, which pits 20 different commodities against each other in a relative strength arm wrestling contest. After ranking towards the top of the matrix just a few months ago, both gold and silver have fallen into the bottom half of the rankings when measured by their long-term buy signals. In their place, a wide variety of assets surfaced in 2026, spanning from energy-dominated leadership as turmoil in the middle east raged onwards in Q1, to the more agriculture-focused leaders as we wrap up Q2. Those looking for a faster experience by ranking assets by a combo of long-term buy signals and short-term X's compared to other commodities might be interested to see that gold fell into the bottom half of the rankings in the middle of March, somewhere between our initial absolute test on the trend chart and our longer-term fund score test.
All that to say, no matter how you slice it, precious metals is an area that deserves less of a place in your portfolio than just a few months ago. A dwindling number of precious metals focused names earn technical attribute scores of 3 or higher. For those of you entering mid-year conversations with clients, take the TA/fund scoring system as an easy way to pick the weeds that might have emerged as the space lost relative strength in Q2. Depending on the technical picture, selling calls against outstanding positions can give you an opportunity to get paid to exit positions while waiting for a slight bounce from positions that have been beaten down recently. Remember, writing covered calls is still technically a bullish position, which may not make sense for every name - keep this in mind when you are reviewing your allocation heading into Q3.
