Markets gained ground over the course of trading Monday (6/15) as news of a peace deal between the US and Iran surfaced over the weekend. Broader domestic equity indices advanced swiftly on the news, with the S&P 500 picking up nearly 2% for the day. Assuming this current agreement sticks, the deal will end a nearly 4 month conflict, during which SPX gained roughly 10% (2/28/26-6/15/26). The tech focused Nasdaq 100 (NDX), which gained roughly 3% during Monday’s trading, picked up over 20% during that same time frame as a semiconductor focused AI rally pushed markets to new all time highs. Monday’s move fell largely in line with that one might “expect” on news of the deal, seeing equity markets advance while parts of the energy complex declined. Crude oil fell back down into the upper $70’s/low $80's , moving back down below a range of seemingly key support established since the beginning of the conflict at the end of February. The 2-point chart (different than the default 1-point chart) for CL/ below has rattled off a series of four consecutive sell signals, putting together a pretty convincing onslaught of lower highs since 2026 highs up around $118. From a conversational perspective, a convincing break of the $78-$80 mark signals the idea that markets are convinced that the war in the Middle East is over…. At least for now.

While energy still ranks towards the top of our rankings either by DALI (dynamic asset level investing) or the asset class group scores page, the writing on the wall has been quite clear that its leadership has been fading. Energy is historically the most susceptible to rapid price swings based on supply/demand developments, and this most recent conflict was no different. Since cresting at a staggering 240+ signal count in the DALI sector rankings throughout March/April, the sector has shed strength, now earning just 217 signals as of 6/15. While this does still leave it in second place behind technology, it was quite clear that said strength was largely dependent on continued conflict around the Strait of Hormuz rather than some organic technical leadership. While it is still “defendable” to hold exposure to the broader energy complex, just keep this idea in mind as we move towards the end of Q2. For an area that was largely based around a supply shock “story”, the dissipation of that tailwind could spell trouble for space. The Asset Class Group Scores page reveals a similar type of commentary- the group remains in “acceptable territory”, but the near negative 1.0 score direction suggests a wane in price leadership.

As anticipated, the decline in crude prices also affects the likes of energy-focused equities, an area more likely you or your clients would have direct exposure to. XLE reversed back into O’s on its default chart on 6/15, but its absolute picture remains acceptable. What is more concerning for the space, is the return to a relative strength sell signal for the fund against benchmark SPXEWI, a development which will ding the fund score quite substantially. Other more focused names saw deterioration of their own. XOM, pictured below, declined as much as 4% on the day, returning to a negative trend in the process. All else equal, it will drop the energy giant to a technically acceptable 3/5’er. CVX put in a similar decline, moving back to a negative trend in the process.

Remember, our job is to help contextualize movement as it occurs, helping look through noise clients see on their phones or news channels. In this case, material movement happens to coincide with news headlines, giving us a sign that it is time to watch your exposure to the energy sector rather closely. As always, to do so keep an eye on the charts, using the bell icon to be alerted of major shifts over time.

Is your custom model killing it? Do you have a great model idea that you haven’t road tested yet? Put it to the test in the NDW Custom Model Competition.

NDW Custom Model Competition

July 1 – October 1, 2026

Winners receive three months of NDW Elite Access

All submissions must be received by 4:00 PM EDT on Tuesday, June 30, 2026

NDW Custom Model Competition Rules

Model Construction Rules

• Participating models must be housed on the NDW Model Builder tool.
• No static models.
• No leveraged funds.
• Models must have a total holdings score of at least 10.
• Individual stocks are worth one point towards the holdings score. Mutual funds/ETFs are worth five points towards the holdings score. E.g., An all-stock model would have to have at least 10 holdings; a mixed ETF and stock model could hold five stocks and one ETF; an all-ETF model could meet the minimum threshold by holding two ETFs. Single-stock ETFs are worth one point.
• Models cannot be altered after 4:00 PM EDT on 6/30/26.

Scoring

• The competition will run from 7/1/26 (closing value on 6/30/26) to 10/1/26 (closing value on 9/30/26).
• The competition will have two winners – the model with the highest overall return and the model with highest risk-adjusted return. Risk-adjusted return will be calculated by dividing the model’s return by its weekly standard deviation over the competition period.

Submissions & Deadlines

• Model symbols and team name must submitted to NDWSupport@nasdaq.com by 4:00PM EDT on 6/30/26. No entries will be accepted after this time.
• Submissions must be made from the email associated with your NDW account.
• A maximum of two models per subscriber account may be submitted.
• A leaderboard, including team names, will be published in the Daily Equity Report at least weekly.

Three months of NDW Elite access will be credited to the NDW account of the first-place finishers in the overall and risk-adjusted categories.

The daily market action has been normal so far in 2026, even if it hasn’t always felt that way. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has gained 8.56% through last Friday (6/12). If we were flat for the rest of the year, we already would have surpassed the annualized return dating back to 1950 (8.12%), but we would trail the annualized return since 2019 (13.78%). The default chart of SPX currently sits in a positive trend, on a sell signal, and in a column of Xs. We saw the chart move to a sell signal after retracting from overbought territory, but we are back within a box of matching all-time highs from earlier this month. It would certainly be great to see the chart go back to a buy signal at fresh highs, but the current technical picture is still healthy.

Another way to look at market action is through our SPX Volatility Study, which measures the percentage of “extreme” market days. Our study simply tracks all the days where SPX either gains or loses 1% in value, then looks at the percentage of those days relative to the total trading days in the year. In 2025, there were 56 days when the market moved at least 1%, equating to about 22% of the annual trading days. The average percentage of extreme days annually sits at about 26% going back to April 1987. This year, we are sitting at 24% of days producing a 1% move, slightly higher than last year but still below the historical average. There were 15 extreme days in the first quarter and another 13 so far in the second quarter (including Monday, 6/15).

Another point to watch is the expectation of reduced volatility in the summer. On average, June and July show the lowest average counts of “extreme” days. August shows an uptick in average volatility that dips back down in September.

This year’s relative calmness becomes clearer if we only look at days when SPX showed a 2% move. There have only been four 2% days in 2026. The core market benchmark has averaged eight such days in the first half of any year back to 1987, but the median sits at four days. There are some large outliers that sway the averages, including 12 days in 2025 and 25 days in 2022. We have actually seen 25 out of the 40 years examined show four or fewer 2% days through the first six months. There have been several long stretches of relative calmness where SPX went years without more than four 2% days in the first half, including 1989 through 1996, 2004 through 2007, and 2011 through 2016.

It can be easy to get caught up in the daily headlines touting risks in the marketplace. One of the current risks is the fear of an AI-induced market bubble. Many have drawn comparisons to the dawn of the internet age in the late 1990s that ultimately led to a bear market when the bubble burst in the early 2000s. Looking strictly at historical performance, there are certainly similarities. We saw five straight years of 15%+ gains for SPX from 1995 through 1999. Currently, we are on pace to mark our fourth consecutive year of 15%+ gains. However, this performance has not been accompanied by the same level of day-to-day volatility. The annual percentage of 1% daily moves reached 32% in 1997 and did not move back below 30% until 2004. That stretch also saw substantially more 2% days. While the count of extreme days has been advancing for three years, we are not at levels that would suggest irrational behavior from market participants.

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool click here.

Call

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) September 18 $160 Call

Put

Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS) Oct 16 $50 Put

Income (Covered Call)

International Business Machines (IBM) July 31 $310 Covered Call