The count of extreme daily moves for SPX is lower than usual.
The daily market action has been normal so far in 2026, even if it hasn’t always felt that way. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has gained 8.56% through last Friday (6/12). If we were flat for the rest of the year, we already would have surpassed the annualized return dating back to 1950 (8.12%), but we would trail the annualized return since 2019 (13.78%). The default chart of SPX currently sits in a positive trend, on a sell signal, and in a column of Xs. We saw the chart move to a sell signal after retracting from overbought territory, but we are back within a box of matching all-time highs from earlier this month. It would certainly be great to see the chart go back to a buy signal at fresh highs, but the current technical picture is still healthy.
Another way to look at market action is through our SPX Volatility Study, which measures the percentage of “extreme” market days. Our study simply tracks all the days where SPX either gains or loses 1% in value, then looks at the percentage of those days relative to the total trading days in the year. In 2025, there were 56 days when the market moved at least 1%, equating to about 22% of the annual trading days. The average percentage of extreme days annually sits at about 26% going back to April 1987. This year, we are sitting at 24% of days producing a 1% move, slightly higher than last year but still below the historical average. There were 15 extreme days in the first quarter and another 13 so far in the second quarter (including Monday, 6/15).
Another point to watch is the expectation of reduced volatility in the summer. On average, June and July show the lowest average counts of “extreme” days. August shows an uptick in average volatility that dips back down in September.
This year’s relative calmness becomes clearer if we only look at days when SPX showed a 2% move. There have only been four 2% days in 2026. The core market benchmark has averaged eight such days in the first half of any year back to 1987, but the median sits at four days. There are some large outliers that sway the averages, including 12 days in 2025 and 25 days in 2022. We have actually seen 25 out of the 40 years examined show four or fewer 2% days through the first six months. There have been several long stretches of relative calmness where SPX went years without more than four 2% days in the first half, including 1989 through 1996, 2004 through 2007, and 2011 through 2016.
It can be easy to get caught up in the daily headlines touting risks in the marketplace. One of the current risks is the fear of an AI-induced market bubble. Many have drawn comparisons to the dawn of the internet age in the late 1990s that ultimately led to a bear market when the bubble burst in the early 2000s. Looking strictly at historical performance, there are certainly similarities. We saw five straight years of 15%+ gains for SPX from 1995 through 1999. Currently, we are on pace to mark our fourth consecutive year of 15%+ gains. However, this performance has not been accompanied by the same level of day-to-day volatility. The annual percentage of 1% daily moves reached 32% in 1997 and did not move back below 30% until 2004. That stretch also saw substantially more 2% days. While the count of extreme days has been advancing for three years, we are not at levels that would suggest irrational behavior from market participants.
