With the Nasdaq-100 hitting 30,000, moments like these are a good time to reflect on how we got here and to frame expectations around where we might be headed next.
Despite some struggles earlier this year, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and other growth areas have put together an incredible start to 2026, with the last two months being particularly historic. The index is up 20% since the start of the year, putting it on track for the fourth consecutive +20% year. However, with woes to start the year, the index has gained over 30% from its March lows, allowing NDX to set record highs above 30,000. This obviously isn’t the first milestone for the index, and it (hopefully) won’t be the last, but moments like these are a good time to reflect on how we got here and to frame expectations around where we might be headed next.
Looking at previous milestones, the Nasdaq-100 hit 19 landmarks levels in our study, with each level being 20% - 33% above the previous one. Most recently, it took 230 days to move from 25k to 30k, during which NDX gained an annualized return of 33.6%. While impressive, both of those numbers are relatively normal for a new milestone, falling closely in line with the median of 264 days and a 33.4% annualized return.
Looking at historical averages can also help estimate the timing of when the index might reach its next landmark. Given that the most recent milestone was hit on May 26th and that it takes a median of 264 days (72% of a full year) to achieve the next landmark, we should expect roughly even odds that NDX will hit its next milestone before Valentines Day (Feb 14th). That said, the average duration and annualized return are notably higher than the median, with several outliers throwing things off. It took nearly 17 years for NDX to rise above 5,000 after initially moving above 4,000, while the lead-up to the dot-com bubble saw three landmark levels with triple-digit annualized returns, making the median a better baseline comparison. However, with the average length to new levels coming in at 624 days (1.71 years), that would place the long-run average timing closer to early 2028, though this estimate is heavily influenced by a small number of extended cycles.
In addition to the Nasdaq-100 setting notable a milestone, its technical picture has also seen significant developments as of late. The index has rocketed higher after its gradual decline marked by four consecutive sell signals in February and March. NDX recently moved to its second buy signal last week following some pullback from an extended column of Xs, leaving it with initial support at 28,600. Its next tradition support lies much lower from 22,800 to 23,000, but previous resistance from 23,800 to 26,000 could also serve as future support area. While the index’s long-term picture is extremely solid, it does trade in heavily overbought territory with an overbought/oversold (OBOS) reading of 111%, implying a heightened probability of near-term consolidation, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see it cool off over the next couple of weeks.
The main reason for the index’s overbought posture is just how much it’s risen in recent months. From March 29th to May 29th, NDX is up an incredible 31.13%, putting it on par with some of the best two-month periods ever seen. In fact, there’s only been nine other occasions in which the index has gained more than 25% over a two-month span. The forward returns of NDX following those instances were mostly positive, averaging a one-year return of 23.5%, suggesting continued upside on average, though with an incredibly wide range of outcomes. The market has been down as much as 39% following such moves, as the only times this occurred was around the dot com bubble or coming off market bottoms (2009, 2020, 2025). Very few—if any—of those instances came during “normal” periods, meaning we should take these numbers with a grain of salt.
Regardless of whichever way the market moves after this, our current environment sits in extremely rare company, and investors probably shouldn’t expect the next year to be “normal” either if history has anything to say about it. Thankfully, the weight of the evidence continues to support a positive outlook on the market, especially within growth and technology areas, even as uncertainty and anxiety reside among investors. If domestic equities continue to hold their current levels of relative strength, we could be talking about the Nasdaq-100 hitting 40,000 sooner than investors expect.
