In honor of Memorial Day, we present you with the cousin of the "Cocktail Party Bullish Percent," the "Backyard BBQ Bullish Percent" indicator.

Memorial Day weekend is upon us, and as in summers past, you will undoubtedly be frequenting several backyard BBQs, both this weekend and in the coming months. If your experiences have been anything like ours, you may have found that these parties can give some very helpful insight on investor sentiment. We have discussed the idea of the "Cocktail Party Bullish Percent” indicator in the past, as a way to gauge the general sentiment of your clients and the public about the market. So, in honor of Memorial Day, we wanted to present you with the cousin of the "Cocktail Party Bullish Percent," the "Backyard BBQ Bullish Percent" indicator. Keep it in the back of your mind as you head to any Memorial Day celebrations this weekend. Our prediction is that you will find yourself somewhere in the middle for most interactions.

Friends, family, and potential clients you see this weekend will also undoubtedly be curious about your take on the market, so we’ve included some notable recent developments below.

• While US stocks have rebounded from their first quarter swoon and notched several record highs over the last month, international equities still hold the top spot in the DALI sector rankings. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has outpaced the S&P 500 (SPX) by more than 10% year-to-date (through 5/20) with gains of 19.65% and 8.7%, respectively.
• Geopolitical uncertainty has helped to keep energy at the top of the DALI domestic equity sector rankings for the last two months. Technology, which has been perhaps the most consistent area of relative strength in domestic equities over the last decade, has rebounded from a Q1 slump and now sits in second place.
• The futures market is currently pricing in about a 54% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Earlier this year, the market had been expecting easing from the Fed but concerns about rising energy prices and inflation have shifted the narrative. Long-term US Treasury yields are sitting near multi-year highs as the 30-year yield index (TYX) hit 5.15% last week.
• Commodities have handily outpaced stocks this year as the S&P GSCI Commodity Index (SPGSCI) is up more than 35% year-to-date (through 5/20). But it has been far from smooth sailing as there has been extreme volatility in precious metals and energy contracts. There has been a lack of sustained leadership in commodities since precious metals precipitous drop earlier this year. Agriculture (cocoa), energy (gasoline), and metals (copper) are each currently represented in the top three in the NDW continuous commodity matrix.
• So far, it has been a banner year for momentum as the RS Spread Index (RSSPREAD), which measures the performance spread between high momentum stocks and laggards, currently sits at an all-time high, as we discussed last week.