Outside of a few short periods, index volatility has remained fairly stable. The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) has spent over 80% of the trading days over the last three years below 20. However, it certainly has not felt like that when looking at individual stock volatility with names like NVIDIA (NVDA) Palantir (PLTR) gaining 999% and 2,471%, respectively, over the last three years. While this first point is more or less anecdotal, there is clear evidence that the volatility of the individual names has shifted higher over the last few years, particularly since 2020. The CBOE S&P Constituent Volatility Index (VIXEQ) looks to measure the market cap weighted 30-day implied volatility of a basket of S&P 500 constituent stocks. The goal of VIXEQ is to give insight into single stock volatility while VIX focuses on index volatility.

In the image below, the historical readings for VIXEQ and VIX going back to 2014 are displayed. VIXEQ was launched in November 2024, so data prior to that is hypothetical. Pre-2020, VIXEQ hugged around the 25 level and was much closer to VIX. Since then, VIXEQ, or individual stock volatility, has shifted materially higher while VIX has been well within historical norms. With much more volatility in the individual stocks versus the index itself today, correlations are lower and there are more opportunities for stock pickers or for a few stocks to do exceptionally well (when have we seen that happen?). In any case, as long as constituent volatility remains well above index volatility relative to historical norms, then stock picking strategies have a good opportunity moving forward.

This week (1/12-1/16) brought with it the start of earnings season as the big banks got going. As we discussed in last week’s Friday Feature, earnings season brings with it the possibility for enhanced volatility as investors get to peak behind the curtain into the results of their favorite companies. Of course, NDW analysis won’t solely focus on the various fundamental metrics presented during earnings calls, our rankings/opinions can shift as price reactions shift overarching supply/demand dynamics. We will take today’s feature to help digest results from a handful of the big banks that have already reported as of midday on 1/14, as well as a technical preview for a handful of big names that report throughout the next week or so.

We will start first by showing you how you can track earnings dates on the NDW platform. Available via NDW’s pre-made Database Reports (via the new screener interface or the “original” view, whichever you prefer…) you will find a screen entitled “stocks with earnings releases.” If you click into that, you will be able to sort by earnings date, as well as a handful of other information. A handful of larger names reporting over the next week include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Morgan Stanley (MS) Goldman Sachs (GS), Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) & GE Aerospace (GE), among others. Regardless- the database can be a useful timesaver as you run your analysis around earnings season.

With that said, we can step into a brief technical overview for many of the banks that have reported so far this week. Post-earnings reactions for the likes of JPM, BAC, WFC & C were largely negative, with the bulk of the group falling ~4-6% following their results. Despite this, the overall technical picture for many of the names still remains quite strong. All of the previously mentioned blue-blood banks still earn a TA score of 4 or higher… and while now trading off their own respective highs present somewhat attractive entry points at/around current levels. Keep in mind that prudent investment analysis involves elements of both technicals and fundamentals… so while technically speaking many of these names are still defendable, ensure there are no significant red flags unveiled in the earnings reports before stepping further. Reporting tomorrow is Goldman Sachs (GS) (pictured below) which has yet to reverse back down into a column of O’s on its default chart. On a poor reaction, a pullback to the middle of the trading band wouldn’t be out of the question, following suit with the banks that have already reported this week.

Leaving the banks space, we will shift our focus over to the first of the mega cap tech focused names on the earnings list for next week. Netflix has been the focus of several recent headlines amongst the ongoing acquisition battle over Warner Bros Discovery (WBD). As is usual with potential acquisitions, the potential parent company (in this case Netflix) has fallen over the recent past. Now sitting well off all-time highs established in 2025, NFLX has lost some elements of technical favor as it earns just 3/5 Technical Attributes at the time of this writing. Those with holdings will undoubtedly want to watch the nearby bullish support line sitting just below current levels at $87. A violation of that point would push the media giant back into unfavorable status for the first time since early 2023.  On positive results, it will be quite interesting to see how market participants act around $100, a point of stiff resistance from earlier in 2025.

The start of earnings season can be a useful touchpoint for some of your more involved clients as we move into the new year. Remember that those interested clients will likely watch the reported top and bottom line results for their holdings like a hawk… for better or for worse. Knowing what to expect from their key holdings- whether a resulting price reaction is really something to worry about or just a healthy pullback for an otherwise strong name, can help calm the waters around an otherwise emotion-filled time in an investment account.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 1/13/26:

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