Last Friday, breadth came back into the market after a rough few weeks. The S&P Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) gained nearly 2% and beat the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) by more than 1%. Excluding clusters within 90 days of each other, this is 17th such occurrence with data going back to 1992 where the SXPEWI gained more than 1.5% and beat the NDX by at least 1%. There are a handful of “harbingers of doom” like October 1999, October 2000, January and July 2008, June and December 2021. October 1999 has strong forward returns one-year out, but the tech bubble peaked in March 2000. This is like the June 2021 occurrence where the market was still strong for another six months. Outside of these instances, the forward returns are strong, particularly on shorter time frames. While some the occurrences preceded market weakness, there are few bottoms or near bottoms like March 2003 and March 2020 mixed in as well. The average forward returns for both SPXEWI and NDX are strong. Looking at returns post-tech bubble, NDX’s average returns drop quite a bit, but are still healthy. SPXEWI’s returns are about same whether looking at data including or excluding pre-2000 returns.

While these single-day occurrences are interesting, they simply help add context to the overall picture. Another important piece of the puzzle is the absolute technical picture. For SPXEWI, it still trades on a sell signal with a few levels of resistance nearby. Long-term, SPXEWI trades in a positive trend which is key for the health of the technical picture. Back to resistance levels, 7700 and 7750 will be important to watch moving forward as a break above these levels would mark a new all-time high which is definitely a sign of strength. From a relative perspective, the cap-weighted indices are still the premier are of strength in the domestic equity market, but seeing more participation from the “average stock” would be a healthy development for the market.

Despite major swings throughout the year, markets have given us yet another thing to be thankful for this year as the S&P 500 looks to close in on its third consecutive year of gains. While the 15% return (if things stay the same…) for SPX won’t taste quite as good as the previous two years of 20%+ gains, most of us certainly won’t complain as we open the holiday season on the right foot.

If you ask around the NDW office in Richmond, you will get a myriad of answers as to what our favorite Thanksgiving dish is. While we probably won’t ever agree who will win the classic Mac & Cheese vs. Mashed Potatoes debate, there is one Thanksgiving related item most of us will understand: Stuffing (or Dressing) our portfolio with technically actionable stocks. With that in mind, we will observe the technical picture of a handful of Thanksgiving related stocks you might find yourself enjoying this week.

An NDW favorite this time of year is a local ZZQ turkey. Sadly, that isn't available for all of us, so we will look at a few names that you may find in the grocery store this year. Tyson Foods TSN & Seaboard Corporation SEB (think Butterball) are two of the world's largest turkey producers. While TSN looks to have had a bit of a Thanksgiving Day disaster (said otherwise, is a poor attribute stock…) SEB has improved quite notably off 2025 lows. Since breaking back into a positive trend in May, the stock has gained nearly 80%, sitting on a string of buy signals with support around some old resistance. Other, more high volume consumer staples names have lagged behind this year… so while their food may be delicious, it might not be best suited for a seat in your portfolio.

For many of us, turkey isn’t the star of the show. With so many sides to choose from, there isn’t always enough room on the plate for everything for your first serving. But we can bet that the thing that makes its way into most of our Thanksgiving “starting lineups” is going to be the mashed potatoes. Post Holdings POST owns a wide variety of packaged food brands, with mashed potatoes and mac & cheese brand Bob Evans a staple in their portfolio. While Uncle Bob Evans may be making an appearance at your Thanksgiving table, he is probably best left out of your stock portfolio this year. POST is a poor 2/5’er, sitting on a string of four consecutive sell signals and newly established negative trend. Bob Evans, we enjoy your mashed potatoes… but not your technical picture. 

After all is said and done, many of us will look to skip out on Thanksgiving clean up by watching Thanksgiving Football (or maybe dozing off…) on our LA-Z Boy recliners. LZB presents quite an interesting technical backdrop. While it is off roughly 15% for the year, it has recently seen significant technical improvement, moving back into a positive trend and earning near-term relative strength against both the market and its peer group… earning it a 4/5 TA score. While those looking to pick up exposure should continue to monitor closely in the event that the recent rally falls apart, the movement is certainly interesting…. But maybe set an alert to wake you up from a thanksgiving slumber if price action falls apart.

The NDW team wishes you safe travels and well wishes this Thanksgiving. Enjoy the time with family and friends. We will be back in the office for the market half day 11/28.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 11.25.25:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (4:48)

Daily Option Ideas for November 26, 2025