Fixed income investors have been pricing in the rate cut Wednesday for the last few weeks, which has pushed rates lower. Fixed income groups on the Asset Class Group Scores page have seen their overbought/oversold readings reach elevated levels. The All Fixed Income group has a weekly overbought/oversold reading of 131%, near the highest levels over the last five years. Still, the All Fixed Income group ranks fifth out of the six major asset classes on the ACGS page with an average score of 2.85. With fixed income exposure a must in most portfolios, it is encouraging to see the group steadily improve over the last few months. Aside from a tumultuous 2022, fixed income has struggled to trend in either direction with the occasional violent move to the upside or downside. With the group being as overbought as it is, there may be less of a reaction to the announcement of the first rate cut as the market has priced that in already, however, changes in economic projections could have a larger impact post-FOMC.

A fixed income indicator that often gets forgotten about in quiet times has retreated to levels last seen in February. The CBUS 10 Year Spread (CBUS10YRSPREAD) is at very low levels which shows the confidence investors are showing to corporate debt. This also shows while there is a higher yield associated with high yield debt than US Treasuries, it is not much to write home about. With little benefit to holding high yield corporate debt right now, I would be wary of overexposure to the area just to squeeze out slightly higher yields than elsewhere. High yield spreads could also move higher despite a lowering of the Fed Funds Rate if the Fed’s economic projections come out poorer than expected.

Yukon Cornelius famously taught us in the 1964 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer classic that everyone wishes for silver and gold… a claim that is especially true in 2025. Don’t worry… we aren’t getting too ahead of ourselves with Christmas-related commentary, but a mention of the fictional precious metal crazed miner does offer an opportunity to highlight both shiny metals in a different fashion than we typically do. Having advanced 40% so far this year Gold GC/ has certainly had its time in the sun in 2025. At the same time, silver SI/ has quietly gained a more impressive ~47% (through 9/16) so far this year. From an absolute perspective, both metals are still overbought by NDW standards… but we say around the office in Richmond, technically strong assets can always get “more overbought”. Precious metals are impacted by a variety of factors, including overall appetite for risk and rates… both of which could change notably following 9/17’s FOMC decision.

Since we all know that precious metals have been relative leaders for quite a while now against other commodity groups, today’s feature will focus more so on comparing the two against each other. We will do so in two fashions, a traditional PnF relative strength chart and the mint ratio, which simply measures the amount of silver needed (in oz) to purchase a single ounce of gold.

We will start first with the mint ratio, for which we included the last five years of data in the table below. The table also includes a handful of benchmarks, including the 5-year average (blue) and a more near-term 50-day moving average (gold). Current readings trade above the 5-year average (~82 oz. of silver per oz. of gold) but are now significantly off early April highs. Note that this peak would coincide with severe risk-off trading patterns around then brand-new tariff implementation. Since that point (4/4/25), silver more than doubled the return of gold, advancing nearly 46%. Using the 50-day as a guide would still be additive (although a tad bit late), seeing SI/ gain roughly 19% since the 50-day switch on 6/2/25 while gold advanced only 11.91%. April’s exhale provides yet another example of the traditionally “risk-on, risk-off” nature between the two metals, seeing a massive spike favoring Gold in early 2020 (Covid) before ripping back to favor Silver in late 2020 as markets quickly chugged higher. Using the mint ratio as a guide, it wouldn’t be abnormal to expect this value to fall back down and flirt with the 5-year average. Remember- this doesn’t mean gold has to fall…. Moreso that silver would continue earn positive relative strength.

 The mathematical computation behind the mint ratio is generally identical to one that we would use on our relative strength charts, but that doesn’t mean that switching our lens won’t be helpful. Below is a 3.25% relative strength chart between the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) & SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). While gold maintains its long-term strength, near-term upticks for silver leave SLV in a column of X’s signaling near-term strength. A historically additive RS switching strategy would suggest maintaining allocation to gold, but a more adventurous advisor might continue to take flier positions on silver in the event that further outperformance is in store.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 09/16/2025:

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