Interested in finding out where you and your clients need to be positioned as we open the back half of the year?  Join our team Wednesday July 16th at 1PM EST in our Quarterly Webinar to discuss the "Weight of the Evidence" as we enter what will undoubtedly be a busy back half of 2025. NDW's Senior Portfolio Manager John Lewis will discuss what he has his eye on from a technical perspective,  while Nasdaq's macroeconomic experts Phil Mackintosh and Yanni Angelakos keep you up to date with all the latest headlines and what you need to know to cut through the noise. Register here. CE Credits Available!

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Some of your clients love it. Some of them hate it. Regardless of their opinion on “virtual gold” it is becoming more and more difficult to ignore Bitcoin as it continues to march to new all-time highs. “Crypto week” has been marked as the latest catalyst as the House of Representatives gears up to discuss a slew of crypto related bills, paving the way for further crypto adoption on US soil.

Bitcoin (and certainly broader cryptocurrencies in general) aren’t going to be suitable for all of your clients. Even the most “pro-risk” clients may only be comfortable with a small portion of their total portfolio in a group which can swing somewhat erratically. Demonstrating this idea is a quick look at the weekly overbought/oversold readings for the coin. Despite climbing nearly 12% since the start of June (and nearly 30% so far this year) it maintains a weekly OBOS reading of just 61%. This is below what we would consider “overbought” for a stock and certainly well below “extended” by Bitcoin’s standards. All this to say, things can certainly get “more overbought”, begging the question: Should I be buying Bitcoin for my clients here?

Buying around all-time highs can certainly feel intimidating. Without resistance to look towards, identifying relevant price targets can be difficult at best. Zooming in to a 3% chart of $BTC (default chart is 5%) we can identify support at ~$102,000 just below the middle of the trading band and around old resistance. In terms of upward price resistance, the top of the trading band would signal things are getting a tad stretched in the near-term, currently sitting at ~$125,000. With that in mind, exercise caution. Based purely on those price points, the risk/reward profile isn’t particularly attractive. For crypto bulls, just continue to dollar cost average into positions.

Crypto-adjacent Coinbase COIN has had quite a productive 2025, up over 56%. The perfect 5/5’er ranks 2nd out of the Software sector matrix. COIN is more overbought than Bitcoin itself with a weekly OBOS reading of 96%, so some normalization could be expected in the near term. An 8-point chart reveals support offered around the mid-$330’s, a logical entry point for those who can’t pick up exposure to Bitcoin but want an equity that tracks in a similar fashion.  

International equities trended well throughout the first half of 2025. The broader asset class sits second out of the six major asset classes in our DALI rankings, but it has seen more near-term momentum than any other asset class since the end of April. Underneath the hood, sharp improvements from some focused areas have contributed to that recent strength.

Capitalizing on strength in international equities can be difficult. Different countries have different economic drivers to consider. There are also a multitude of different factors that can affect the price action of individual securities within each country. This often leads to increased dispersion between leaders and laggards in foreign markets, producing big winners but also big losers. Using a momentum-focused approach can be beneficial here, allowing a defined process to determine the strongest securities while avoiding the weakest ones.

Our international Technical Leaders indices seek to do just that, taking broader inventories from developed markets and emerging markets then only focusing exposure on the 100 names from each list that have demonstrated the strongest momentum. This includes the indices behind the Invesco Dorsey Wright Emerging Markets Momentum ETF (PIE) and the Invesco Dorsey Wright Developed Markets Momentum ETF (PIZ). Both indices were reconstructed at the end of the most recent quarter, leading to some allocation shifts to better align each strategy with areas of improvement.

Developed Markets
The Invesco DWA Developed Markets Momentum ETF (PIZ) saw 26 changes in the most recent evaluation. This was a relatively small number of changes, speaking to the consistent leadership demonstrated by developed markets. There are 22 countries represented, half of which did not see any allocation change this quarter. Canada is the most overweight country at 14.8%, with 3% coming from new allocations. Switzerland and South Korea saw the largest allocation increases, adding 6.8% and 5.6% respectively.

On the sector side, Finance remains at the top holding at 25.4%, although it saw minimal allocation adjustment this quarter. Instead, Producer Manufacturing took the lead in new sector additions, with an 11.5% boost that raised its total share to 19.1%, now the second-largest sector in PIZ. Technology Services and Electronic Technology also picked up steam, contributing to a broader mix of cyclical and growth-focused sectors.

Emerging Markets
The Invesco Dorsey Wright Emerging Markets Momentum ETF (PIE) saw more allocation shifts than PIZ at the end of last month, as 50 names were swapped out for new positions. There are 12 countries represented in the holdings, nine of which saw changes. Taiwan remains the most heavily weighted country, making up more than 32% of the portfolio, and saw the largest number of new additions at 21.6%. China also saw notable rotation, adding 11% in new allocation to bring its total weight to 27.4%, making it the second-largest country in the portfolio.

From a sector standpoint, Finance continues to dominate, now representing 32.5% of the portfolio after receiving the highest level of new allocation at 13%. Electronic Technology held steady as the second-largest sector at 17.1%, followed by Health Technology at 10.5%, boosted by a 7.3% increase in new names. These three sectors are now the only ones with double-digit weights in PIE, underscoring the momentum overweight in defined areas of strength.

Altogether, these changes reflect a continuation of the relative strength trend that has produced improvement for international equities in recent quarters. Both PIE and PIZ are seeing wider sector and regional participation, which is a positive sign for the momentum-based strategies these indices represent. Markets will likely change somewhat over the next three months, and the process behind these strategies will push them toward the strongest areas at the next quarterly evaluation. However, the consistent leadership displayed from the broader international space, especially in developed markets, leaves them well positioned heading into the back half of the year.

Daily Option Ideas for July 14, 2025