Bitcoin rallies to new highs ahead of "crypto week."
Interested in finding out where you and your clients need to be positioned as we open the back half of the year? Join our team Wednesday July 16th at 1PM EST in our Quarterly Webinar to discuss the "Weight of the Evidence" as we enter what will undoubtedly be a busy back half of 2025. NDW's Senior Portfolio Manager John Lewis will discuss what he has his eye on from a technical perspective, while Nasdaq's macroeconomic experts Phil Mackintosh and Yanni Angelakos keep you up to date with all the latest headlines and what you need to know to cut through the noise. Register here. CE Credits Available!
Download the Full Quarterly Report to Dive Deeper
Some of your clients love it. Some of them hate it. Regardless of their opinion on “virtual gold” it is becoming more and more difficult to ignore Bitcoin as it continues to march to new all-time highs. “Crypto week” has been marked as the latest catalyst as the House of Representatives gears up to discuss a slew of crypto related bills, paving the way for further crypto adoption on US soil.
Bitcoin (and certainly broader cryptocurrencies in general) aren’t going to be suitable for all of your clients. Even the most “pro-risk” clients may only be comfortable with a small portion of their total portfolio in a group which can swing somewhat erratically. Demonstrating this idea is a quick look at the weekly overbought/oversold readings for the coin. Despite climbing nearly 12% since the start of June (and nearly 30% so far this year) it maintains a weekly OBOS reading of just 61%. This is below what we would consider “overbought” for a stock and certainly well below “extended” by Bitcoin’s standards. All this to say, things can certainly get “more overbought”, begging the question: Should I be buying Bitcoin for my clients here?
Buying around all-time highs can certainly feel intimidating. Without resistance to look towards, identifying relevant price targets can be difficult at best. Zooming in to a 3% chart of $BTC (default chart is 5%) we can identify support at ~$102,000 just below the middle of the trading band and around old resistance. In terms of upward price resistance, the top of the trading band would signal things are getting a tad stretched in the near-term, currently sitting at ~$125,000. With that in mind, exercise caution. Based purely on those price points, the risk/reward profile isn’t particularly attractive. For crypto bulls, just continue to dollar cost average into positions.
Crypto-adjacent Coinbase COIN has had quite a productive 2025, up over 56%. The perfect 5/5’er ranks 2nd out of the Software sector matrix. COIN is more overbought than Bitcoin itself with a weekly OBOS reading of 96%, so some normalization could be expected in the near term. An 8-point chart reveals support offered around the mid-$330’s, a logical entry point for those who can’t pick up exposure to Bitcoin but want an equity that tracks in a similar fashion.
