Daily Summary
Tech- Early 2000's to Today
What does tech today have in common with the early 2000's market environment?
Laggards No More?
U.S. Equity indices have kicked off Q3 2025 seeing a laggard rally with small cap index, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), outpace large cap indices over the short time (6/30 – 7/10).
Weekly Video
Weekly Rundown Video - July 9, 2025
Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.
Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.
Interested in finding out where you and your clients need to be positioned as we open the back half of the year? Join our team next Wednesday July 16th at 1PM EST in our Quarterly Webinar to discuss the "Weight of the Evidence" as we enter what will undoubtedly be a busy back half of 2025. NDW's Senior Portfolio Manager John Lewis will discuss what he has his eye on from a technical perspective, while Nasdaq's macroeconomic experts Phil Mackintosh and Yanni Angelakos keep you up to date with all the latest headlines and what you need to know to cut through the noise. Register here. CE Credits Available!
It’s hard to remember a time when phones didn’t give instant answers and access to information wasn’t at our fingertips. Today, the term artificial intelligence continues to echo as it transforms the world faster than anyone could have ever imagined, but this isn’t the first time the market has reacted to digital screens. Before the AI boom, there was the dotcom bubble. Starting in January 1995 and peaking in March of 2000, the NASD surged over 500% until its catastrophic crash in 2002. We want to open with the fact that markets by no mean are signaling a “bubble” of the early 2000’s magnitude. However, the rapid adoption of the technology and sometimes euphoric swings around AI related news does pose interesting questions about the similarities of markets roughly two and a half decades later. Declaring the start of the AI Boom with the release of Open AI’s Chat GPT in November 2022, we are now hallway through the 63 month run of the dotcom bubble. Although it’s still too early to definitively say AI is in a bubble, the return profile is starting to look familiar and raises the question of just how loud this boom could be.
When comparing the dotcom bubble to today’s tech sector, 1995 maintains the high for the ^BPECTECH at 88%. Said plainly, nearly 9 out of every 10 stocks in the sector were on a buy signal at the start of the dotcom era, tapering off as participation waned and markets collapsed. In comparison, current readings have recently touched 54%, signaling just over half of technology stocks sit on PnF buy signals… well off “dotcom bubble” readings. All this to say, while the return pattern above looks similar, we haven’t seen an “unreasonable” uptick in participation over the course of our “AI Boom”… a positive sign despite the similar return stream detailed above.
Artificial intelligence representative AIQ is currently up 13% YTD and recently hit a new all-time high of $44. The default chart is extended on a column of 23 Xs, so we will utilize a more sensitive $.25 scale to better capture relevant support and resistance points (below.) Much like the rest of the market, things are a bit frothy here so some normalization could be seen in the near-term. That said, with a strong fund score of 5.66, relative strength buy signal against the market since 2024, the technical picture remains quite strong. Since the beginning of our defined “AI boom” (Nov 2022) AIQ has gained roughly 101%. We highlight important support points to watch below.
Today, many stocks feel like an investment in AI, and while much of the tech sector trades in heavily overbought territory, there are a handful of names you could look towards. TRI stands out with a sound technical setup, achieving a technical attribute score of 5 and ranking 148th in the top 500 Large Cap matrix. The stock has demonstrated long-term relative strength vs the market (SPXEWI) since 2023 and against its peer group (DWABUSI) since 2022. Having now sat in a positive trend for two years with three consecutive buy signals on its default chart, TRI recently hit all time highs on 7/8 and maintains support at $192 and $182. Those seeking exposure should note expected earnings on 7/31.
U.S. Equity indices have kicked off Q3 2025 seeing a laggard rally with small cap index, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), outpace large cap indices over the short term (6/30 – 7/10). This week’s action brought RUT back to positive on a year-to-date basis by more than 1% since February.
On the default point and figure chart, RUT returned to a buy signal in the latter part of April and given five additional buy signals with the most recent occurring upon the double top break at $2180 on 6/27. This week’s action brought RUT above the 2200 level to 2260 and matching the top of the 10-week trading band. As of 7/10, RUT resides at its most overbought level since late 2023 with a weekly OBOS reading of 92%.
The ETF tracking RUT, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), similarly returned to a buy signal in late April and has rallied to an overbought stance. With a fund score of 1.90 highlights the trending improvement of the ETF but also shows the long-term relative strength picture is negative for the broader small cap space relative to large caps. This lends a portfolio to still favor large caps from a long-term perspective and if small cap exposure were to be prevalent, it’d likely be individual stock exposure in high attribute names exhibiting strong long-term technical pictures.
While the long-term RS picture for small caps remain the same, the recent laggard bounce within small caps highlights additional themes within broader US Equities. Examining the performance of the Invesco Small Cap Sector ETF lineup from the beginning of Q3 provides further evidence of the laggard bounce theme within sectors. Materials and Energy have ranked within the bottom half of the NDW DALI Sector Rankings since the beginning of 2024 but have led small cap (and large cap by of the Sector SPDRs) sector space since the beginning of Q3.
As an example of recent laggard action, the chart of the Invesco S&P SmallCap Materials ETF (PSCM) is below. The fund entered 2025 in a negative trend and ultimately fell as much as 25% by early April. After reversing back into a column of Xs in the latter part of April, the fund rallied from the upper $50s to the mid $70s after action on 7/10. While the fund still technically maintains a sell signal on its default chart, PSCM has given four consecutive buy signals on the more sensitive 0.50 point per box chart. This week’s action has placed PSCM at its most overbought level since late 2020 with a weekly OBOS reading of roughly 170%!
From a relative perspective, this recent rally has brought the market RS chart back into a column of Xs after having been in a column of Os since September 2024. While the RS chart shows a near-term trend in favor of the Materials fund, the long-term relative strength relationship favors the broader market.
Given recent action has been driven by short-term fodder – tariffs, geopolitical tensions, etc. – areas of the market like the Materials sector have worked their way into an extended position. A pullback or period of consolidation would seem may seem emanate given the overbought level of similar sectors and the broader market. Following the potential pullback, investors will see if these laggard sectors that have led Q3 in this short time are able to sustain or if recent action was ultimately just short-term.
Featured Charts:
Portfolio View - Major Market ETFs
Symbol | Name | Price | Yield | PnF Trend | RS Signal | RS Col. | Fund Score | 200 Day MA | Weekly Mom |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | 446.50 | 1.53 | Positive | Sell | X | 3.68 | 427.23 | + 3W |
EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 48.42 | 2.45 | Positive | Sell | X | 4.08 | 44.43 | + 2W |
EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | 89.81 | 2.88 | Positive | Sell | X | 4.10 | 82.03 | - 4W |
IJH | iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index Fund | 63.99 | 1.38 | Positive | Buy | O | 2.52 | 61.75 | + 3W |
IJR | iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index Fund | 114.07 | 2.16 | Positive | Sell | O | 1.46 | 112.14 | + 3W |
QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 555.45 | 0.51 | Positive | Buy | X | 5.31 | 504.81 | + 12W |
RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | 185.78 | 1.58 | Positive | Sell | O | 3.23 | 177.40 | + 3W |
SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 625.82 | 1.16 | Positive | Buy | X | 4.99 | 583.83 | + 11W |
XLG | Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF | 52.63 | 0.71 | Positive | Buy | X | 5.04 | 48.79 | + 12W |
Average Level
49.77
< - -100 | -100 - -80 | -80 - -60 | -60 - -40 | -40 - -20 | -20 - 0 | 0 - 20 | 20 - 40 | 40 - 60 | 60 - 80 | 80 - 100 | 100 - > |
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< - -100 | -100 - -80 | -80 - -60 | -60 - -40 | -40 - -20 | -20 - 0 | 0 - 20 | 20 - 40 | 40 - 60 | 60 - 80 | 80 - 100 | 100 - > |
AGG | iShares US Core Bond ETF |
USO | United States Oil Fund |
DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF |
DVY | iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF |
DX/Y | NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot |
EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF |
FXE | Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust |
GLD | SPDR Gold Trust |
GSG | iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust |
HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF |
ICF | iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF |
IEF | iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF |
LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF |
IJH | iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund |
ONEQ | Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track |
QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust |
RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF |
IWM | iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF |
SHY | iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF |
IJR | iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund |
SPY | SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust |
TLT | iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF |
GCC | WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund |
VOOG | Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF |
VOOV | Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF |
EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF |
XLG | Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF |
Long Ideas
Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VIRT | Virtu Financial | Wall Street | $44.05 | 38-mid 40s | 60 | 31 | 4 TA rating, pos trend, recent RS buy, top 10% of WALL sector matrix, consec. buy signals, Earn. 7/30 |
FFIV | F5 Inc. | Internet | $299.89 | 260s - 280s | 312 | 244 | 5 for 5'er. top half of favored INET sector matrix, LT pos peer RS, triple top breakout, Earn. 7/30 |
SPG | Simon Property Group, Inc. | Real Estate | $163.45 | mid 150s - 160s | 184 | 138 | 5 for 5'er, top 20% of REAL sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback, 5.2% yield, Earn. 8/4 |
LAMR | Lamar Advertising Company | Media | $125.31 | mid 110s - low 120s | 144 | 99 | 5 for 5'er, LT pos peer & mkt RS, bullish catapult, good R-R, 5.2% yield, Earn. 8/8 |
LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | Oil Service | $234.23 | 210s - 230s | 320 | 188 | 5 TA rating, LT RS buy, LT peer RS buy, positive trend, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 8/7 |
SYK | Stryker Corporation | Healthcare | $394.77 | 372-390s | 436 | 328 | 5 TA rating, top 33% of HEAL sector matrix, LT RS buy, consec buy signals, recent pos trend, Earn. 7/31 |
TRI | Thomson Reuters Corporation | Business Products | $201.58 | 182-hi 190s | 246 | 158 | 5 TA rating, top 25% of BUSI sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, consec buy signals, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/6 |
LDOS | Leidos Holdings Inc. | Aerospace Airline | $163.00 | 140s - low 150s | 174 | 128 | 5 for 5'er, favored AERO sector, LT pos mkt & peer RS, bullish catapult, Earn. 8/5 |
CCEP | Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | Food Beverages/Soap | $95.45 | hi 80s - low 90s | 111 | 80 | 5 for 5'er, top 20% of FOOD sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, quad top, 2.4% yield, Earn. 8/6 |
COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | Retailing | $970.17 | mid 900s - lo 1000s | 1296 | 792 | 5 TA rating, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, top 50% of RETA sector matrix, buy on pullback |
CDNS | Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | Software | $322.66 | 280s - 300s | 469 | 244 | 5 for 5'er, top third of favored SOFT sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, quad top, Earn. 7/28 |
MA | Mastercard Incorporated Class A | Finance | $563.52 | 490s - 550s | 808 | 424 | 5 TA rating, LT RS buy against mkt and peers, LT pos trend, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/6 |
HIG | Hartford Insurance Group Inc/The | Insurance | $121.95 | hi 110s - hi 120s | 162 | 104 | 5 for 5'er, top 20% of favored INSU sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, spread triple top, Earn. 7/28 |
GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | Biomedics/Genetics | $114.54 | 100s to mid 110s | 141 | 88 | 4 TA rating, top 50% of BIOM sector matrix, LT pos trend, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/7 |
GRBK | Green Brick Partners Inc. | Building | $67.15 | low-to-mid 60s | 82 | 53 | 4 for 5'er, top half of BUIL sector matrix, spread quad top, Earn. 7/30 |
RTX | RTX Corp. | Aerospace Airline | $146.40 | mid 130s - hi 140s | 188 | 112 | 4 TA rating, top 50% of AERO sector matrix, LT pos. trend, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 7/22 |
APEI | American Public Education Inc. | Business Products | $30.99 | hi 20s - low 30s | 42 | 25 | 5 for 5'er, top 10% of BUSI sector matrix, shakeout to triple top breakout, R-R>2.0 |
MTZ | Mastec Inc | Building | $168.77 | 160s-mid 170s | 202 | 144 | 5 TA rating, top 10% of BUIL sector matrix, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 7/31 |
CSL | Carlisle Cos Inc | Machinery and Tools | $415.95 | 370s - 390s | 488 | 348 | 4 for 5'er, favored MACH sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, bearish signal reversal, good R-R, Earn. 7/23 |
WMB | Williams Companies Inc. | Gas Utilities | $57.78 | hi 50s - lo 60s | 77 | 49 | 5 TA rating, top 50% of GUTI sector matrix, LT mkt RS buy & pos trend, buy-on-pullback |
PRDO | Perdoceo Education Corporation | Business Products | $29.53 | hi 20s - lo 30s | 55 | 23 | 5 Ta rating, top 20% of BUSI sector matrix, LT mkt RS buy & pos trend, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 7/31 |
OLLI | Ollies Bargain Outlet Holding Inc. | Retailing | $126.68 | 120s | 150 | 102 | 5 for 5'er, top 25% of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback |
MNST | Monster Beverage Corp. | Food Beverages/Soap | $59.17 | hi 50s - lo 60s | 80 | 50 | 5 TA rating, top 20% of FOOD sector matrix, LT RS buy, buy-on-pullback |
ARES | Ares Management Corp | Finance | $180.13 | mid 160s - 170s | 200 | 154 | 5 for 5'er, top half of favored FINA sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, bullish triangle, Earn. 8/1 |
Short Ideas
Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc | Electronics | $42.97 | (hi 30s - low 40s) | 19 | 47 | 0 for 5'er, 51 of 52 in ELEC sector matrix, LT neg mkt RS, bearish catapult, R-R>2.0, Earn. 7/22 |
Follow-Up Comments
Comment | |||||||
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NDW Spotlight Stock
ARES Ares Management Corp R ($177.65) - Finance - ARES is a 5 for 5'er that ranks in the top half of the favored finance sector matrix and has been on peer and market RS buy signals since 2017 & 2016, respectively. On its default chart, ARES has completed four consecutive buy signals, most recently completing a bullish triangle last week. Long exposure may be added in the mid $160s to $170s and we will set out initial stop at $154, which would take out two levels of support on ARES's default chart. We will use the stock's previous high, $200, as our target price. ARES also carries a 2.5% yield and is expected to report earnings on 8/1.
198.00 | O | • | 198.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
196.00 | O | • | 196.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
194.00 | O | X | • | 194.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
192.00 | O | X | O | • | Top | 192.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
190.00 | O | X | O | • | 190.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
188.00 | O | X | O | • | 188.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
186.00 | O | X | O | • | 186.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
184.00 | O | X | O | • | 184.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
182.00 | O | O | • | 182.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
180.00 | O | • | X | 180.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
178.00 | O | • | X | 178.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
176.00 | • | O | • | X | 7 | 176.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
174.00 | • | O | X | • | X | O | X | X | 174.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
172.00 | O | X | 3 | O | • | X | O | X | O | X | 172.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
170.00 | O | X | O | X | O | • | X | O | X | O | X | 170.00 | |||||||||||||||||
168.00 | O | X | O | X | O | • | X | O | X | O | X | 168.00 | |||||||||||||||||
166.00 | O | X | O | O | • | X | O | 6 | O | X | Mid | 166.00 | |||||||||||||||||
164.00 | O | O | • | X | O | X | O | X | 164.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
162.00 | O | • | X | O | X | O | 162.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
160.00 | O | • | X | O | X | 160.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
158.00 | O | X | O | X | 158.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
156.00 | O | X | X | X | O | 156.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
154.00 | O | X | O | X | X | O | 5 | 154.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
152.00 | O | X | O | X | O | X | X | O | X | 152.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
150.00 | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 150.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
148.00 | O | X | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | 148.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
146.00 | O | X | O | X | O | 4 | O | X | O | 146.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
144.00 | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 144.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
142.00 | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | X | X | 142.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
140.00 | O | O | O | O | X | O | X | O | X | Bot | 140.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
138.00 | O | X | O | X | O | X | 138.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
136.00 | O | X | O | X | O | X | • | 136.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
134.00 | O | X | O | X | O | • | 134.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
132.00 | O | X | O | • | 132.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
130.00 | O | X | • | 130.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
128.00 | O | X | • | 128.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
126.00 | O | X | • | 126.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
124.00 | O | X | • | 124.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
122.00 | O | X | • | 122.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
120.00 | O | X | • | 120.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
118.00 | O | X | • | 118.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
116.00 | O | X | • | 116.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
114.00 | O | X | • | 114.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
112.00 | O | • | 112.00 |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A ($180.51) - Internet - GOOGL moved higher today, now sitting just one box away from completing a triple top buy signal at at $182. Interested parties should take the buy signal as the runway would be clear to the top of the trading band around $200. All that said, remember the stock still isn't "strong" with a 3/5 score, so monitor exposure closely. |
Daily Option Ideas for July 11, 2025
New Recommendations
Name | Option Symbol | Action | Stop Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Aptiv PLC - $69.32 | O: 25K70.00D21 | Buy the November 70.00 calls at 6.30 | 64.00 |
Follow Ups
Name | Option | Action |
---|---|---|
GoDaddy Inc. ( GDDY) | Aug. 180.00 Calls | Stopped at 170.00 (CP: 167.85) |
Gilead Sciences, Inc. ( GILD) | Sep. 110.00 Calls | Stopped at 6.20 (CP: 5.45) |
Tapestry Inc. ( TPR) | Aug. 82.50 Calls | Raise the option stop loss to 15.00 (CP: 17.00) |
RTX Corp. ( RTX) | Sep. 140.00 Calls | Raise the option stop loss to 8.60 (CP: 10.60) |
New Recommendations
Name | Option Symbol | Action | Stop Loss |
---|---|---|---|
Constellation Brands, Inc. - $172.70 | O: 25U175.00D19 | Buy the September 175.00 puts at 9.40 | 180.00 |
Follow Up
Name | Option | Action |
---|---|---|
CSX Corporation ( CSX) | Sep. 30.00 Puts | Stopped at 34.00 (CP: 33.99) |
Schlumberger Limited ( SLB) | Aug. 35.00 Puts | Stopped at 37.00 (CP: 37.35) |
Occidental Petroleum Corporation ( OXY) | Sep. 45.00 Puts | Stopped at 2.05 (CP: 1.83) |
Adobe Systems Incorporated ( ADBE) | Oct. 380.00 Puts | Raise the option stop loss to 29.10 (CP: 31.10) |
New Recommendations
Name | Option Sym. | Call to Sell | Call Price | Investment for 500 Shares | Annual Called Rtn. | Annual Static Rtn. | Downside Protection |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Airbnb, Inc. Class A $ 137.00 | O: 25I140.00D19 | Sep. 140.00 | 6.85 | $ 65,168.05 | 33.23% | 21.70% | 4.00% |
Still Recommended
Name | Action |
---|---|
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A ( PLTR) - 142.50 | Sell the September 130.00 Calls. |
Hims & Hers Health Inc. ( HIMS) - 50.27 | Sell the September 55.00 Calls. |
Fortinet Inc. ( FTNT) - 100.20 | Sell the September 105.00 Calls. |
IonQ Inc. ( IONQ) - 45.93 | Sell the October 42.00 Calls. |
MARA Holdings Inc. ( MARA) - 19.00 | Sell the December 18.00 Calls. |
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. ( NCLH) - 23.15 | Sell the December 22.00 Calls. |
Uber Technologies, Inc. ( UBER) - 96.40 | Sell the August 97.50 Calls. |
Lumentum Holdings Inc ( LITE) - 92.62 | Sell the August 90.00 Calls. |
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A ( PLTR) - 142.50 | Sell the August 145.00 Calls. |
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
Name | Covered Write |
---|---|
Palo Alto Networks Inc ( PANW - 192.07 ) | September 200.00 covered write. |