Daily Equity & Market Analysis
Published: Oct 07, 2026
This content is for informational purposes only. This should not be construed as solicitation. The general public should consult their financial advisor for additional information related to investment decisions.

Daily Summary

Q3 Best and Worst Performing ETFs

As we do each quarter, we will take today’s report to look across different asset classes and focus on the best and worst performing funds for the third quarter.

Morning Pulse

NDW Morning Pulse - October 7, 2026

  • US futures are lower this morning after the S&P 500 recorded its fourth consecutive up day yesterday and reached a record high.
  • The S&P 500 led the major US benchmarks higher yesterday, gaining 0.58%. Gold and silver were also higher as US Treasury yields and the dollar were both down.
  • Crude oil ([CL/]) broke a spread quadruple bottom at $88 and fell back into a negative trend. Crude is up slightly this morning trading a bit below $90.
  • While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit fresh all-time highs this week, most of our participation indicators continue to show narrow breadth.
  • The ICE BofA High Yield Spread Index ([HIGHYIELDSPREAD]) reversed up last week, reflecting widening high yield credit spreads, a potential sign of a risk-off posture towards credit emerging in the fixed market.
  • Yesterday’s research focused on the quarterly changes to the International Technical Leaders indices. Canada and Japan are the two largest country exposures in the developed international index with finance being the largest sector exposure. Meanwhile, Taiwan is by far the largest country exposure in the emerging markets index at roughly 60% with electronic technology being the largest sector exposure.
  • It’s a pretty light week in terms of earnings and economic data but minutes of the last Fed meeting are due out this afternoon and could impact expectations for additional rate hikes. The market is currently pricing in a better than 80% chance of at least one more rate hike by the end of the year.

NDW Morning Pulse

by James West

Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 10/7. Access the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

  • US futures are lower this morning after the S&P 500 recorded its fourth consecutive up day yesterday and reached a record high.
  • The S&P 500 led the major US benchmarks higher yesterday, gaining 0.58%. Gold and silver were also higher as US Treasury yields and the dollar were both down.
  • Crude oil (CL/) broke a spread quadruple bottom at $88 and fell back into a negative trend. Crude is up slightly this morning trading a bit below $90.
  • While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit fresh all-time highs this week, most of our participation indicators continue to show narrow breadth.
  • The ICE BofA High Yield Spread Index (HIGHYIELDSPREAD) reversed up last week, reflecting widening high yield credit spreads, a potential sign of a risk-off posture towards credit emerging in the fixed market.
  • Yesterday’s research focused on the quarterly changes to the International Technical Leaders indices. Canada and Japan are the two largest country exposures in the developed international index with finance being the largest sector exposure. Meanwhile, Taiwan is by far the largest country exposure in the emerging markets index at roughly 60% with electronic technology being the largest sector exposure.
  • It’s a pretty light week in terms of earnings and economic data but minutes of the last Fed meeting are due out this afternoon and could impact expectations for additional rate hikes. The market is currently pricing in a better than 80% chance of at least one more rate hike by the end of the year.

As we do each quarter, we will take today’s report to look across different asset classes and focus on the best- and worst-performing funds for the third quarter and year to date. Note, during our screen, we filtered out leveraged and inverse funds while implementing minimum volume and AUM requirements to focus solely on those funds most likely to come across your desk. We also did our best to avoid similar kinds of funds, when possible, but there will likely be similar themes during our analysis. Note, “similar” can take on a wide range of definitions. For example, different weighting methodologies can produce vastly different returns, so we won’t exclude an equally weighted tech fund if a cap weight option is already on the list.

We will start broadly by peering across all the different asset groups at once. Despite some rotation underneath the hood of the sector, it might come as a surprise that the top ten have several different-technology-focused names across our best performing funds. Outside of “extended” technology, leading performers also came from energy as unrest in the Middle East pushed energy names back and forth. Biotechnology was also a leader, with standout performances pushing healthcare options towards the top of NDW’s rankings. Side note, it is also interesting to see focused magnificent seven fund MAGS in the top ten as market has narrowed. In the bottom ten, there were several other tech options which struggled (semiconductors included) in Q3. China makes up the only pure international representative of the group, as well as homebuilders, clean energy, and a handful of other industrial metals focused names.

For the year, leaders include more technology options as the sector maintains a strong long-term posture. Asia (sans China) has a handful of top performers as well, rounding out or all funds yearly performance table with representation across the global investment landscape. Towards the downside, China remains a point of weakness, followed by the likes of metals, long-duration treasures, home builders, consumer discretionary names, among a few others. One takeaway from this table is that some technology struggled in Q3, but remains quite strong so far in 2026. Keep this in mind as you discuss positions/performance with clients in end of year discussions.

We can also focus more specifically on individual sectors to identify possible points of strength/weakness on a more granular level. Some high-level touchpoints: performance leaders in Q3 (energy, some tech, etc.) fell largely in line with major themes for the entire year. Towards the downside, quarterly laggards included a handful of industrial options as the sector lost strength quickly (homebuilders, aerospace and defense, etc.), as well as clean energy, metals, and semiconductor areas. Besides the semiconductor struggles, Q3’s laggards followed similar themes to losers for the majority of 2026. Remember, consistent winners and losers can lead to productive momentum environments.

As it is at the top of the NDW DALI broad asset level rankings, we can also hone in specifically on the international asset class to help identify what parts of the globe are winning and losing. After all, the international asset class has gained some favor (and popularity) over the course of the last few years… and you need to have a list of possible names if clients come asking about their possible exposure. For Q3, the top ten points of strength included options largely from Europe, with the remainder coming from general tech/Chinese healthcare. This strength from China in Q3 was rather isolated, seeing other representatives litter the bottom 10 of both quarterly and yearly performance. For the year, other Asia-Pacific areas (South Korea, Taiwan) lead the way to the upside, while previously mentioned China and India are laggards so far in 2026. 

 

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

 

Universe BP Col & Level (actual) BP Rev Level PT Col & Level (actual) PT Rev Level HiLo Col & Level (actual) HiLo Rev Level 10 Week Col & Level (actual) 10 Week Rev Level 30 Week Col & Level (actual) 30 Week Rev Level
ALL
Os at 34%
(34.6 -0.1)
BPALL
 
40%
Os at 36%
(35.6 -0.7)
PTALL
 
42%
Os at 18%
(17.3 -2.3)
ALLHILO
 
24%
Os at 26%
(27.6 +0.5)
TWALL
 
32%
Os at 36%
(36.9 +0.1)
30ALL
 
42%
NYSE
Os at 36%
(36.2 +0.2)
BPNYSE
 
42%
Os at 44%
(43.1 -1.1)
PTNYSE
 
50%
Os at 10%
(10.2 -2.3)
NYSEHILO
 
16%
Os at 22%
(27.2 +5.4)
TWNYSE
 
28%
Os at 36%
(40.8 +3.7)
30NYSE
 
42%
OTC
Os at 34%
(34.2 -0.3)
BPOTC
 
40%
Xs at 38%
(33.1 -0.7)
PTOTC
 
32%
Os at 22%
(22.3 -2.5)
OTCHILO
 
28%
Os at 28%
(27.9 -1.3)
TWOTC
 
34%
Os at 36%
(35.9 -1.2)
30OTC
 
42%
World
Os at 36%
(36.2 -0.2)
BPWORLD
 
42%
Os at 38%
(37.6 -0.4)
PTWORLD
 
44%
N/A
N/A
Os at 34%
(33.6 +0.4)
TWWORLD
 
40%
Os at 38%
(38.6 +0.9)
30WORLD
 
44%

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 10/6/26:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

 

 

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (4:19)

Market Distribution Table The Distribution Report below places Major Market ETFs and Indices into a bell curve style table based upon their current location on their 10-week trading band.

The middle of the bell curve represents areas of the market that are "normally" distributed, with the far right being 100% overbought on a weekly distribution and the far left being 100% oversold on a weekly distribution.

The weekly distribution ranges are calculated at the end of each week, while the placement within that range will fluctuate during the week. In addition to information regarding the statistical distribution of these market indexes, a symbol that is in UPPER CASE indicates that the RS chart is on a Buy Signal. If the symbol is dark Green then the stock is on a Point & Figure buy signal, and if the symbol is bright Red then it is on a Point & Figure sell signal.

 

Average Level

-26.02

< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >
                       
Sell signalief
                     
Sell signalagg
               
Buy signalVOOG
   
Sell signalhyg
   
Buy signalijr
Buy signalefa
       
Buy signalxlg
   
Sell signaltlt
   
Buy signaliwm
Buy signalgld
   
Sell signalUSO
 
Buy signalONEQ
   
Sell signalfxe
Sell signalshy
 
Buy signaldia
Buy signalVOOV
   
Sell signalEEM
Buy signalGSG
Buy signaldx/y
   
Sell signallqd
Buy signalicf
Sell signaldvy
Buy signalrsp
Buy signalIJH
   
Buy signalSPY
Buy signalgcc
Buy signalQQQ
   
< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >

 

AGG iShares US Core Bond ETF
USO United States Oil Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
DX/Y NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF
LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF
IJH iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund
ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF
IJR iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund
VOOG Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
VOOV Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
XLG Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF
   

 

Long Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
AME Ametek Inc Electronics $253.72 mid 230s - mid 250s 342 204 4 for 5'er, LT pos mkt RS, bullish catapult, buy on pullback, R-R>2.0, Earn. 10/29
CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company Household Goods $34.59 mid-to-hi 30s 48 31 4 for 5'er, favored HOUS sector, LT pos peer RS, spread quad top, buy on pullback
CLH Clean Harbors Inc Waste Management $318.06 310s - 320s 356 288 5 for 5'er, #3 of 22 in WAST sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS
ASC Ardmore Shipping Corporation Transports/Non Air $18.82 17 - 19 24 15.50 5 for 5'er, top 20% of favored TRAN sector matrix, triple top, good R-R, 7.5% yield
MTCH Match Group, Inc. Leisure $40.62 low-to-mid 40s 55 36 4 for 5'er, top 20% of LEIS sector matrix, one box from RS buy, triple top, 1.8% yield, Earn. 11/3
FTNT Fortinet Inc. Software $191.27 hi 160s - hi 170s 226 142 5 for 5'er, top third of favored SOFT sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, spread quad top, Earn. 10/28
CSTL Castle Biosciences, Inc. Biomedics/Genetics $33.40 32 - 35 63.50 28 4 for 5'er, top 10% of favored BIOM sector matrix, multiple buy signals, pos trend flip, R-R~4.0, Earn. 11/2
ANET Arista Networks Inc Telephone $215.36 190s - mid 210s 262 178 5 for 5'er, top quintile of Telephone matrix, pos. trend, matched ATH on 9/25.
ABBV AbbVie Inc. Drugs $266.69 250s - 260s 302 216 5 for 5'er, top third of favored DRUG sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, triple top, 2.6% yield, Earn. 10/30
ACT Enact Holdings Inc Finance $46.34 low-to-mid 40s 69 37 5 for 5'er, top 25% of FINA sector matrix, LT pos trend & mkt RS, triple top, heavily oversold
LPG Dorian LPG Limited Oil Service $56.45 53 - 59 69 47 5 for 5'er since July, top quintile of Oil Svcs. matrix, pos. trend, consolidating below high at $59.
TNK Teekay Tankers, Ltd. Transports/Non Air $101.24 hi 90s - low 100s 133 83 5 for 5'er, top 10% of TRAN sector matrix, multiple buy signals, 1% yield.
ELF Elf Beauty Inc Household Goods $102.79 98 - 110 123 90 5 for 5'er since Aug., ranked 1st in Hous. Goods matrix, pos. trend, Earn. 11/4
NVT nVent Electric plc Electronics $173.80 160s 206 142 5 for 5'er, top 10% of ELEC sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, buy on pullback, Earn. 10/30

Short Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
ADBE Adobe Systems Incorporated Software $238.12 (230s - 240s) 192 268 2 for 5'er, bottom 25% of SOFT sector matrix, LT neg mkt & peer RS, spread triple bottom

Removed Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
GH Guardant Health, Inc. Biomedics/Genetics $170.69 low 170s to mid 180s 236 140 GH has fallen to a sell signal. OK to hold here. Raise stop to $152. Earn. 10/28

Follow-Up Comments

Comment
There are currently no follow-up comments.

NDW Spotlight Stock

 

NVT nVent Electric plc R ($166.53) - Electronics - NVT is a 5 for 5'er that ranks in the top decile of the electronics sector matrix and has been on market and peer RS buy signals since 2021 and 2023, respectively. On its default chart, NVT has completed three consecutive buy signals most recently breaking a double top last week. The stock has subsequently pulled back to prior resistance near the middle of its trading band, offering an entry point for long exposure. Positions may be added in the $160s and we will set our initial stop at $142, a potential spread triple bottom break on NVT's chart. We will use the bullish price objective, $206, as our target price. NVT is expected to report earnings on 10/30.

 
176.00                       X •                               176.00
174.00                   X   X O •                       X     174.00
172.00                   X O X O   •                     X     172.00
170.00                   X O X O     •                   X     170.00
168.00 •             X   X O   O       •                 X     168.00
166.00   •       X   X O X     O         •           X   A     166.00
164.00   X • •   X O X O X     O           • •   X   X O X     164.00
162.00   X O X • X O X O       O     X   X   X • X O X O X     162.00
160.00 O X O X O X 8 X         O     X O X O X O X O X O     Mid 160.00
158.00 O X O X O X O X         O X   X O X O X O X O           158.00
156.00 O   O X O X O X         O X O X O X O   O X             156.00
154.00     O X O X O X         O X O X O X     O X             154.00
152.00   • O X O X O X         O X O • O X     O X       •     152.00
150.00 •   O X O X O           O   •   O X     O X     •       150.00
148.00     O X O X               •     9 X     O X   •         148.00
146.00     O   O X             •       O X     O X •           146.00
144.00         O X           •         O       O •             144.00
142.00         O X         •                   •               142.00
140.00         O X       •                                     140.00
138.00         O X     •                                       138.00
136.00         O X   •                                         136.00
134.00         O X •                                           134.00
132.00         O •                                             132.00

 

 

CBRE CBRE Group, Inc. ($127.43) - Real Estate - CBRE moved lower Wednesday to break a double bottom at $126, marking a fourth consecutive sell signal. This 2 for 5'er moved to a negative trend earlier this month and sits in the bottom half of the real estate sector RS matrix. The weight of the evidence is weak and deteriorating. Avoid long exposure. Note that further support can be seen at $124 from June. Overhead resistance may be seen at $134. Earnings are expected on 10/22.
MOS Mosaic Company ($20.06) - Chemicals - MOS fell to a sell signal and a negative trend Wednesday when it broke a double bottom at $20, where it now sits against support. The negative trend change will drop MOS to a 1 for 5'er. Beyond the current support at $20, MOS shows no additional support on its chart until $16.50, a level it last saw in 2020.

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.


Call

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) Jan 15 $270 Call

Addiitional Data:  
Bid/Ask Spread 2.33%
Delta 57.49
Gamma 1.03
Implied Volatility 27.91%
Expiry Date 100
Earnings Date 10/30/2026

Put

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) Jan 15 $210 Put

Additional Data:  
Bid/Ask Spread 4.81%
Delta -47.36
Gamma 0.80
Implied Volatility 47.12%
Expiry Date 100
Earnings Date 11/09/2026

Income

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Nov 6 $63 Covered Call

Additional Data:  
Ann. Static Return 15.09%
Bid/Ask Spread 13.43%
Delta 76.95
Gamma -5.44
Implied Volatility 33.44%
Expiry Date 30
Earnings Date 11/09/2026

 

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