Daily Summary
NDW Model Competition Final Results
NDW Model Competition Final Results
International Technical Leaders Updates – September 2026
Our International Technical Leaders Indices were evaluated at the end of July, leading to some shifts in allocation to start the second half.
Morning Pulse
NDW Morning Pulse - October 7, 2026
- US futures are lower this morning after the S&P 500 recorded its fourth consecutive up day yesterday and reached a record high.
- The S&P 500 led the major US benchmarks higher yesterday, gaining 0.58%. Gold and silver were also higher as US Treasury yields and the dollar were both down.
- Crude oil ([CL/]) broke a spread quadruple bottom at $88 and fell back into a negative trend. Crude is up slightly this morning trading a bit below $90.
- While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit fresh all-time highs this week, most of our participation indicators continue to show narrow breadth.
- The ICE BofA High Yield Spread Index ([HIGHYIELDSPREAD]) reversed up last week, reflecting widening high yield credit spreads, a potential sign of a risk-off posture towards credit emerging in the fixed market.
- Yesterday’s research focused on the quarterly changes to the International Technical Leaders indices. Canada and Japan are the two largest country exposures in the developed international index with finance being the largest sector exposure. Meanwhile, Taiwan is by far the largest country exposure in the emerging markets index at roughly 60% with electronic technology being the largest sector exposure.
- It’s a pretty light week in terms of earnings and economic data but minutes of the last Fed meeting are due out this afternoon and could impact expectations for additional rate hikes. The market is currently pricing in a better than 80% chance of at least one more rate hike by the end of the year.
Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 10/06. Access the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page.
- It was a mostly productive day for many of the names we typically look at within the video. Leading the way to the upside were emerging markets (EEM), the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 1000. To the downside, the fixed income space and commodities were the large losers, with crude down nearly 2% for the day.
- In terms of notable chart action, SPXEWI reversed back up into X’s on its chart. While we do still trade on a PnF sell signal, the silver lining is the fact that we sit in a long-term positive trend. We will look for the average stock to continue to improve as participation remains a key battleground moving into Q4.
- The US Dollar (DX/Y) has drifted higher alongside rates, although both are now heavily overbought and some normalization could make sense. As rates drift higher, outstanding fixed income continues to decline, particularly those areas further out on the curve. TLT posted its fourth consecutive sell signal on its chart and the space remains a relative laggard within the fixed income space.
- VUG. vs. VTV, a key growth/value RS relationship, moved back into X’s favoring growth with yesterdays action. Growth has held long-term control on this RS relationship since 2023 and sits at or near all time RS highs.
- Developed EFA vs. emerging EEM on a 3.25% chart flipped back into O’s favoring emerging markets in the near term. The emerging space remains somewhat convincing while developed areas have struggled slightly, particularly on the trend following front.
- STZ reports after close on 10/6. It holds strong as a weak attribute name and should largely be avoided. DASH returns to a buy signal but maintains a negative trend. The technicals might support a flier position with further upside action around $208. Consider setting an alert.
With the end of the third quarter the inaugural NDW Custom Model Competition has come to an end. With a gain of over 15% for the quarter, the CrewStonks model won the competition and will receive three months of Elite access to the NDW platform. An honorable mention goes to ACTFT, the only other entrant to outperform the S&P 500 over three months of the competition.
At the outset of the competition, we said that we would announce both an absolute and risk-adjusted winner, but as it turned out, the CrewStonks model was also the top performer on a risk-adjusted basis. Overall, it was a challenging period for trend-following models as technology stocks, semiconductors in particular, saw a significant drawdown early in the quarter only to turn around in a potential whipsaw trade.
We want to thank everyone who took part in the competition and made it a success. Stay tuned for details about our next competition will be forthcoming in the next few weeks.

Check out NDW's quarterly edition of the "Weight of the Evidence" moving into Q4. We discuss key movement across the investment landscape and highlight key movement you need to know to stay ahead to close out 2026. Prefer to listen in? Join senior portfolio manager John Lewis and senior research analyst Miles Clark on 10/7 at 1PM EST for a live webinar discussing the report and more. Register or download the FULL report
International equities took a step back in the third quarter of 2026 after experiencing sharp appreciation in prior months. Even with some consolidation, the broader asset class still sits in the top-ranked position in our DALI asset class rankings, signifying the long-term strength remains intact. Underneath the hood, there was some sharp appreciation from focused areas showing more momentum than their peers.
Capitalizing on strength in international equities can be difficult. Different countries have different economic drivers to consider. There are also a multitude of different factors that can affect the price action of individual securities within each country. This often leads to increased dispersion between leaders and laggards in foreign markets, producing big winners but also big losers. Using a momentum-focused approach can be beneficial here, allowing a defined process to determine the strongest securities while avoiding the weakest ones.
Our International Technical Leaders indices seek to do just that, taking broader inventories from developed and emerging markets then focusing exposure only on the 100 names from each list that have demonstrated the strongest momentum. This includes the indices behind the Invesco Dorsey Wright Emerging Markets Momentum ETF (PIE) and the Invesco Dorsey Wright Developed Markets Momentum ETF (PIZ). Both indices were reconstructed at the end of the most recent quarter, leading to some allocation shifts to better align each strategy with areas of improvement.
Developed Markets
The Invesco DWA Developed Markets Momentum ETF (PIZ) saw 42 changes in the most recent evaluation, which is significantly fewer than the 59 seen in Q2. There are 24 countries represented, including 15 that saw new allocation added. Canada remains the most overweight country at 13.9%, which is about 5% less allocation than we saw at the end of Q2. Japan has the second highest weighting in the fund and saw the largest percentage of new allocation.
On the sector side, finance remains the top holding and expanded its allocation to over 60%, nearly doubling its total allocation over the past six months. Non-energy minerals is the only other industry with double-digit allocation at 10%, adding 7% in new allocation in the most recent evaluation.


Emerging Markets
The Invesco Dorsey Wright Emerging Markets Momentum ETF (PIE) saw more allocation shifts than PIZ at the end of last month, with 50 names swapped out for new positions. That is also substantially more than the 39 changes seen at the end of June. There are 12 countries represented in the holdings, 11 of which saw changes. Taiwan continues to demonstrate strength with the greatest number of new names added at 23% in new allocation out of the total weight of 61%. China saw 3.6% of new allocation, but its total allocation decreased by 4% to 10%. This was a notable decline from the 33.7% in total China allocation 12 months ago. These two countries alone still make up nearly three-quarters of the total allocation.
From a sector standpoint, there are 15 industry groups represented, nine of which saw changes. Electronic technology is 38% of the fund and saw 14% in new allocation. Finance saw 11% in new allocation added and now sits at over 27% in allocation. There were minimal changes across the rest of the industry groups.


Altogether, these changes reflect a continuation of the relative strength trend that has produced improvement for international equities in recent quarters. The momentum factor saw some turbulence in international equities in Q3 as major winners consolidated. This is normal in any long-term bullish trend for any asset class. If we see more change over the next three months, the process behind these strategies will adapt to new leadership trends, pushing the portfolios toward strength and avoiding areas of weakness.
Disclosures:
This article is intended for Financial Professional Use Only.
Management and other expenses can have a material impact on performance when compounded over time. Past performance, hypothetical or actual, does not guarantee future results. In all securities trading there is a potential for loss as well as profit. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance as shown.
Click here for more information from Invesco on the Invesco Dorsey Wright Developed Markets Momentum ETF (PIZ): https://www.invesco.com/us/en/financial-products/etfs/invesco-dorsey-wright-developed-markets-momentum-etf.html
Click here for more information from Invesco on the Invesco Dorsey Wright Emerging Markets Momentum ETF (PIE): https://www.invesco.com/us/en/financial-products/etfs/invesco-dorsey-wright-emerging-markets-momentum-etf.html
Dorsey, Wright & Associates, LLC is owned by Nasdaq, Inc. and we have affiliates who also provide financial services, research, information, and act as Brokers/Dealers to a wide variety of clients. Our affiliates use the information we create to create indexes, which are then used to create Exchange Traded Funds. These things create a potential conflict of interest in that we may have an incentive to promote or use the products and services of our affiliates and business partners. A number of Dorsey Wright representatives are registered with and hold securities licenses with the affiliate broker-dealers. In this capacity, they assist with the marketing and distribution of Exchange Traded Products.
Average Level
-32.52
| < - -100 | -100 - -80 | -80 - -60 | -60 - -40 | -40 - -20 | -20 - 0 | 0 - 20 | 20 - 40 | 40 - 60 | 60 - 80 | 80 - 100 | 100 - > |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < - -100 | -100 - -80 | -80 - -60 | -60 - -40 | -40 - -20 | -20 - 0 | 0 - 20 | 20 - 40 | 40 - 60 | 60 - 80 | 80 - 100 | 100 - > |
| AGG | iShares US Core Bond ETF |
| USO | United States Oil Fund |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF |
| DVY | iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF |
| DX/Y | NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF |
| FXE | Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Trust |
| GSG | iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust |
| HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF |
| ICF | iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF |
| IEF | iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF |
| LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF |
| IJH | iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund |
| ONEQ | Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust |
| RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF |
| SHY | iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF |
| IJR | iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust |
| TLT | iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF |
| GCC | WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund |
| VOOG | Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF |
| VOOV | Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF |
| XLG | Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF |
Long Ideas
| Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AME | Ametek Inc | Electronics | $251.92 | mid 230s - mid 250s | 342 | 204 | 4 for 5'er, LT pos mkt RS, bullish catapult, buy on pullback, R-R>2.0, Earn. 10/29 |
| CENTA | Central Garden & Pet Company | Household Goods | $34.30 | mid-to-hi 30s | 48 | 31 | 4 for 5'er, favored HOUS sector, LT pos peer RS, spread quad top, buy on pullback |
| CLH | Clean Harbors Inc | Waste Management | $322.37 | 310s - 320s | 356 | 288 | 5 for 5'er, #3 of 22 in WAST sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS |
| ASC | Ardmore Shipping Corporation | Transports/Non Air | $19.34 | 17 - 19 | 24 | 15.50 | 5 for 5'er, top 20% of favored TRAN sector matrix, triple top, good R-R, 7.5% yield |
| MTCH | Match Group, Inc. | Leisure | $40.38 | low-to-mid 40s | 55 | 36 | 4 for 5'er, top 20% of LEIS sector matrix, one box from RS buy, triple top, 1.8% yield |
| FTNT | Fortinet Inc. | Software | $184.13 | hi 160s - hi 170s | 226 | 142 | 5 for 5'er, top third of favored SOFT sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, spread quad top, Earn. 10/28 |
| CSTL | Castle Biosciences, Inc. | Biomedics/Genetics | $36.65 | 32 - 35 | 63.50 | 28 | 4 for 5'er, top 10% of favored BIOM sector matrix, multiple buy signals, pos trend flip, R-R~4.0, Earn. 11/2 |
| GH | Guardant Health, Inc. | Biomedics/Genetics | $187.22 | low 170s to mid 180s | 236 | 140 | 5 for 5'er since May '26, top quintile of Biomedics matrix, pos. trend, ATH on 9/17, Earn. 10/28 |
| ANET | Arista Networks Inc | Telephone | $206.90 | 190s - mid 210s | 262 | 178 | 5 for 5'er, top quintile of Telephone matrix, pos. trend, matched ATH on 9/25. |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | Drugs | $265.76 | 250s - 260s | 302 | 216 | 5 for 5'er, top third of favored DRUG sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, triple top, 2.6% yield, Earn. 10/30 |
| ACT | Enact Holdings Inc | Finance | $45.87 | low-to-mid 40s | 69 | 37 | 5 for 5'er, top 25% of FINA sector matrix, LT pos trend & mkt RS, triple top, heavily oversold |
| LPG | Dorian LPG Limited | Oil Service | $57.64 | 53 - 59 | 69 | 47 | 5 for 5'er since July, top quintile of Oil Svcs. matrix, pos. trend, consolidating below high at $59. |
| TNK | Teekay Tankers, Ltd. | Transports/Non Air | $103.38 | hi 90s - low 100s | 133 | 83 | 5 for 5'er, top 10% of TRAN sector matrix, multiple buy signals, 1% yield. |
| ELF | Elf Beauty Inc | Household Goods | $103.75 | 98 - 110 | 123 | 90 | 5 for 5'er since Aug., ranked 1st in Hous. Goods matrix, pos. trend, Earn. 11/4 |
Short Ideas
| Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | Software | $238.78 | (230s - 240s) | 192 | 268 | 2 for 5'er, bottom 25% of SOFT sector matrix, LT neg mkt & peer RS, spread triple bottom |
Removed Ideas
| Symbol | Company | Sector | Current Price | Action Price | Target | Stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELL | Welltower Inc. | Real Estate | $224.16 | low 230s to low 250s | 366 | 194 | Sell signal at $224, maintain $194 stop. |
Follow-Up Comments
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NDW Spotlight Stock
ELF Elf Beauty Inc ($102.97) - Household Goods - ELF has been a 5 for 5’er since August following the peer and market RS charts returning to RS buy signals. Both RS charts have maintained positive near-term relative strength since June this year and the stock currently ranks 1st (out of 24) within the Household Goods sector matrix. On the trend chart, ELF has maintained a positive trend since June this year, and shares rallied to a near-term high in early September at $110 before pulling back into the lower $90s. Action in the back half of September led to a return to a buy signal at $100 before a second capped off the month at $104. Okay to consider ELF in $98 to $110 range. The bullish price objective of $123 will serve as the price target, while the initial stop loss point will be set for $90. Earnings are due on 11/4.
| 110.00 | 9 | 110.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 108.00 | X | O | 108.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 99.00 | X | X | O | X | X | O | X | 99.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 98.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | Mid | 98.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
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| 80.00 | X | X | X | O | X | O | X | 80.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 79.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 79.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 78.00 | X | O | X | X | O | X | O | X | O | 78.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 77.00 | X | O | X | O | X | X | O | O | X | 77.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 76.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | 76.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 75.00 | 7 | O | X | O | X | O | X | O | • | 75.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 74.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | X | • | 74.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 73.00 | X | O | X | O | X | O | • | 73.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 72.00 | X | O | O | • | Bot | 72.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 57.00 | O | • | 57.00 |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. ($176.13) - Oil - AMR returned to a buy signal Tuesday when it broke a double top at $176, where it now sits against resistance. The outlook for the stock remains negative, however, as AMR is a 1 for 5'er and ranks in the bottom half of the oil sector matrix. From here, the first level of support sits at $164. |
| AVGO Broadcom Ltd ($377.85) - Semiconductors - Shares of AVGO broke a double top at $364, moving back to a buy signal. Today's move also saw the stock return to a positive trend, bringing it up to hold territory as a 3 for 5'er. That said, the stock has been rangebound these last couple month, and AVGO continues to lack near-term relative strength. |
| QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated ($180.96) - Semiconductors - QCOM stock fell on Tuesday, breaking a double bottom at $180 for its second consecutive sell signal. Today's move also saw the name move back into a negative trend, moving the company down to sell territory as a 2 for 5'er. Those with exposure could look to sell here. Initial support lies at $172 then $164. |
The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.
Call
Chevron Corporation (CVX) Jan 15 $200 Call

| Addiitional Data: | |
| Bid/Ask Spread | 14.72% |
| Delta | 66.84 |
| Gamma | 1.35 |
| Implied Volatility | 26.38% |
| Expiry Date | 101 |
| Earnings Date | 10/30/2026 |
Put
Oklo Inc (OKLO) Jan 15 $40 Put

| Additional Data: | |
| Bid/Ask Spread | 6.56% |
| Delta | -45.31 |
| Gamma | 2.75 |
| Implied Volatility | 73.01% |
| Expiry Date | 101 |
| Earnings Date | 11/10/2026 |
Income
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Nov 6 $225 Short Put

| Additional Data: | |
| Ann. Static Return | 15.42% |
| Bid/Ask Spread | 3.50% |
| Delta | 22.34 |
| Gamma | -1.38 |
| Implied Volatility | 28.66% |
| Expiry Date | 31 |
| Earnings Date | 11/17/2026 |