Last week’s action brought about a fourth consecutive week of negative performance for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the majority of U.S. equity indices, apart from the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI), which declined for the third week in a row. Indicators from the short- to long-term have shown downward movement in response to the weak domestic equity performance. The most notable change following Friday’s (3/20) action came from the Percent Positive Trend for the NYSE stock universe (^PTNYSE), which moved to bear confirmed status and fell below 50%. The indicator now sits at its lowest level since June of last year, suggesting that fewer than half of the 1,800+ stocks in the NYSE universe maintain positive trends on their point & figure charts.

The 50% threshold for the ^PTNYSE is an important line of demarcation, serving as a barometer for broad long‑term market participation. The table below is one that we publish periodically when indicators cross notable thresholds; this edition examines the forward performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) following various technical moves within the ^PTNYSE indicator.

Earlier this month, the ^PTNYSE reversed into Os from the upper 50s and remains within the 40%–60% range, where short‑term returns tend to be muted while intermediate‑ to long‑term returns are positive. Forward returns while the indicator is in Os within this range are roughly in-line with returns seen when the indicator is below 50%, but they lag relative to other percentile buckets.

While the ^PTNYSE sits in a middling position on its chart—and when considering the forward returns of the S&P 500—investors should monitor whether the indicator maintains its current range of 40%–60%. As the table shows, forward returns for SPX improve when the indicator moves toward either higher or lower extremes. Elevated readings within the ^PTNYSE indicate a healthy, trending market, and the forward returns within the table support this. Meanwhile, the strongest forward returns tend to follow washed‑out readings below 30%. Current readings are still above that territory, but with the recent move below the 50% threshold, that is now among the next potential developments. Continued readings within the 40%–60% range would point toward more muted short‑ to intermediate‑term forward returns.

To stay updated on chart action within the ^PTNYSE indicator (and others), click the Clock icon in the upper left‑hand corner near the title header to set alerts.

International equities moved into correction territory last week, as the iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (ACWX) fell more than 11% from its February 25th closing high through Friday, March 20th. Emerging markets (EEM) and developed markets (EFA) also dropped more than 10% from their respective highs over the past month. This deterioration marks the first correction for ACWX since the “Liberation Day”-induced decline that ended last April. While the catalysts behind these two drawdowns have been vastly different, the price action has been similar up to this point. It took ACWX 20 days to drop nearly 14% last year, while it has taken 23 days for the ETF to fall 11% this year. Aside from last year, the current decline is the fastest 10% drop for ACWX among the past 12 corrections, dating back to 2012.

There have been 47 total corrections for the broad international benchmark ACWX since the end of 1987. Comparatively, there have been only 29 such corrections for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) over the same time frame, highlighting the heightened volatility we typically see in foreign stocks. This context is important when international equities still sit at the top of our DALI asset class rankings. Even though we have seen sharp declines, we also saw sharp appreciation from most representatives heading into their recent peaks. ACWX rose to show a weekly overbought/oversold (OBOS) reading north of 100% at the beginning of February and essentially stayed in overbought territory for the entire month. The default chart of ACWX ascended in a single column from last April through this past February, notching the largest X column in the fund’s history at 26 consecutive X’s. Put plainly, international equities had gotten frothy. This correction could be exactly what this historically volatile asset class needs to normalize before further improvement.

Corrections never feel good in the moment, particularly when they happen at the speed we’ve experienced over the past few weeks. It may also be confusing to see such sharp declines in the asset class that just moved back to the top position in our DALI rankings. A historical view of past corrections helps put the frequency of declines by decade into perspective, as shown in the graph below. The number of pullbacks in each decade is higher than what we would see in U.S. stocks. For comparison, the S&P 500 experienced six corrections in the 1990s, 11 in the 2000s, six in the 2010s, and six so far in the 2020s. The 2000s saw the most outperformance from international equities in recent memory, as ACWX outpaced SPX in seven of those 10 years. That decade also saw significantly more corrections, with 16 total events.

I have heard many comparisons between the current environment and the 2000s over the past few months, both in markets and geopolitics. Those comparisons make sense to a degree. Focusing on markets, we are currently looking at back-to-back years of ACWX outpacing SPX for the first time since the 2000s. The U.S. dollar (DX/Y) still sits in a long-term downtrend, as it did in the 2000s, even with the recent appreciation. Crude oil (CL/) has exploded higher with volatile price action, again like the 2000s. We cannot know for sure whether these trends are in their early stages. The 2000s saw six straight years of outperformance from ACWX, from 2002 to 2007. This is why we use a process-based approach like our DALI asset class rankings to keep us focused on the areas with the highest relative strength. Even if we see long-term strength from foreign stocks, expect that strength to be paired with further volatility.

The turbulence in international equity markets has led to rotation in our NDW Country Index matrix rankings. Nearly all countries in the matrix have changed rank since the end of February, including 17 of the top 20. Taiwan and Brazil have been the biggest improvers within the top quartile, each gaining six spots to the 6th and 7th positions, respectively. Norway has been the largest improver overall, moving up 12 positions into the top half. These could be areas to consider for focused exposure within the top asset class.

Daily Option Ideas for March 24, 2026