This weekend brought several notable developments to the global marketplace as the United States moved to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. What price movement do you need to know about?
This weekend brought several notable developments to the global marketplace as the United States moved to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. It goes without saying that any uptick in geopolitical conflict leaves the door open for heightened volatility, and Venezuela’s position as a leader of global oil reserves makes the move particularly interesting. There are largely two trains of thought regarding the overall impact on oil/energy prices, which remained largely steady on Monday’s open (CL/ gained ~1% in the morning). The first is that heightened US influence could unlock more of Venezuela’s reserves, unleashing supply which would put downward pressure on energy prices. The second idea suggests that any unrest in energy driven regions could hamper near-term production, decreasing supply (and increasing uncertainty…) which would push overall prices higher. While the true outcome is likely somewhere in the middle, the weekend’s events gives us the opportunity to look around the globe to see how price is reacting in the near-term… and what you might monitor as the situation develops. Note that our commodity charts don't update with intraday action, so the chart below doesn't take into account movement on 1/5.
Energy names popped as markets opened for the day before tapering off throughout the morning. With that said, broad energy representative XLE managed to notch intraday highs above $47, enough to post a bullish catapult on its default chart. While the energy space remains a relative laggard on our longer-term rankings, its admittedly limited performance so far this year has been impressive (+~4.5% as of Monday morning). It’s long term fund score could certainly stand for some overall improvement as it sits as 2.73, but a trip above 3.0 would mark the fund’s first test of NDW’s “acceptable” status since March of 2025.
Chevron Corp (CVX) rallied on the news as the energy giant already has “significant” exposure to the country (CNBC). Shares advanced as much 6.5% for the day before trailing off slightly… but the move was enough to push it back into a positive trend to earn its third technical attribute point. While the stock will now be considered technically actionable, note that overall performance has been lackluster for the better part of the last three years. We will continue to monitor some stiff resistance in the low $170’s going forward.
Other areas typically associated with global unrest also moved higher on Monday. Silver and Gold continued higher after the space saw some relatively large swings to close out the last year. They continue to trade around their own respective highs and should continue to flex their muscles at the top of the rankings if further uncertainty is in store. Our last comment today will swirl around aerospace and defense names, a group which tends to excel during times of global unrest. The First Trust Indexx Aerospace & Defense ETF (MISL) gained roughly 3% with intraday action on Monday, having now gained just over 6% so far in 2026. While the move brings it up into heavily overbought territory, the technical picture remains quite strong. MISL was a recent addition to the Focus Five Model, which has put in a strong start to the new year. PPA is another focused aerospace and defense fund you could look toward.
Remember, any time there is a rapidly developing story, there will be headlines and an influx of calls from clients asking how they are positioned in the event things go haywire. Our job is to remain objective and let price be our guide. Utilize the charts to find levels of price that are important and set alerts to be notified as the full picture develops.
