Examining action within index and NDW industry/sector group positive trend (PT) indicators.
Thursday’s Daily Equity Report highlighted the Positive Trend indicator for NYSE Stocks (^PTNYSE) reversing down into a column of Os to 50%, suggesting half of the roughly 1800 stocks within the NYSE universe maintain a positive trend on their point and figure trend chart. While ^PTNYSE chart resides at a level that isn’t too concerning yet, smaller universe PT charts reside at varying levels – with some providing minimal concern at the moment, while others have fallen to their lowest levels in some time.
For an examination of size and style groups below are the PT charts for the notable broad U.S. equity indices. The PT for the Nasdaq-100 (^PTNDX) was the first to reverse lower in August, while the PT for the S&P Small Cap 600 Index (^PTSPSML) was the last, doing so to finish off October. The PTNDX and PT for the S&P 500 (^PTSPX) maintain readings of 60% or higher, while the PT for the S&P Mid Cap 400 (^PTSPMID) sits above 50% - indicating that the majority of large and mid cap stocks continue to maintain positive overall long-term trends on their point and figure charts. Meanwhile, the PT for the S&P Small Cap 600 has fallen below 50%, suggesting the majority of small cap stocks now maintain sell signals. Many of the index PT charts sit at levels not seen since May or June, and apart from the S&P 500 PT, many saw their 2025 lows around 20% in April (the last notable dip in indicators).
Expanding the examination of long-term positive trend indicators further, below are the current column positions and readings of the NDW 40 Sector/Industry groups. The table to the left highlights the 16 PT charts that maintain a column of Xs, where long-term trends remain strong or are improving, while the table on the right shows the 24 PT charts that maintain a column of Os, where long-term trends are waning or have deteriorated entirely. Industries/sectors from more defensive broad sectors like utilities, basic materials, healthcare, and consumer staples primarily occupy the table where long-term trends are maintained (top of the table, high readings) or improving (bottom of the table, lower readings). Within the table on the right industries/sectors from broad sectors like financials and industrials are where long-term trends have begun to wane (top of the table, high readings still). While technology and consumer discretionary present mixed pictures, with some industries sustaining long-term trends and others seeing them deteriorate. For example, semiconductors and internet are areas of technology where long-term trends have waned, but reversals have come down from their highest levels in recent years. Conversely, the software industry didn’t quite see the same amount of increase off the April on its PT chart relative to others, and the chart has fallen into the mid-20s, indicating less than one out of every four stocks maintain above their bullish support line on their point and figure trend chart. Below are examples within the software industry that have recently violated its trendline, contributing to the PT’s deterioration, and one that has tested its bullish support line twice this month.
After reporting earnings that were in-line, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) failed to impress investors with underwhelming guidance along with an acquisition of Chronosphere for $3.4 billion. PANW shares fell from the upper $190s to the lower $180s intraday Thursday’s (11/21) action, violating support at $198 along with the bullish support line as shares fell through the mid $180s. The impact to the trend chart caused the stock to fall to a 4 for 5’er, with the market and peer relative strength charts maintaining a buy signal and a column of Xs sustaining PANW’s technical picture. Intraday action Friday brought shares down to test another level of support at $182. Beyond current support, additional can be found at $174 and $166, the August 2025 chart low. While the market and peer RS charts maintain a positive stance and are not near reversal into Os yet, both have seen the RS values pullback with the rapid decent Thursday. Owners of PANW may utilize the alerts system to not only mark support on the trend chart, but potential reversals into Os on the peer or market RS charts.
While among those stocks maintaining a positive trend, Intuit (INTU) has tested its bullish support line twice in November with the most recent being Thursday (11/20), prior to earnings. After beating on earnings and reaffirming guidance shares rebounded intraday Friday, returning the stock to a buy signal at $672 as shares rallied to $680. INTU continues to maintain a 3 technical attribute rating with positive long-term market and peer relative strength, along with the positive trend on the trend chart, sustaining the technical picture. With the bullish support line the nearest level of support on the trend chart and INTU exhibiting negative near-term relative strength on the market and peer RS charts, holders will look to closely monitor near-term price action from here. Owners of INTU will look to set alerts for the violation of the bullish support line along with a potential change in relative strength signal on both the market and peer RS charts.
