Amid the ongoing partial government shut down, the release of key economic indicators—such as the jobs report, CPI, and unemployment claims—have been delayed or suspended. Without fresh data to assess the state of the U.S. economy, active investors have now begun to adopt a more cautious stance. Over the past few weeks, traditionally defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities have shown notable technical improvement. While these sectors have historically lagged their cyclical and growth-oriented sector counterparts on a relative strength basis, recent technical improvements suggest a possible rotation in the market dynamics. This shift may signal investor caution in response to growing economic uncertainty.

The chart below highlights month-to-date performance across sectors and their corresponding ETFs. The Health Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) and the Utilities Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) have gained 4.28% and 3.90%, respectively, since the start of the month. To further build the case, the Asset Class Group Scores page shows strong momentum within healthcare-related groups. When looking at the score direction leaders, the biotechnology group—a sub-sector of healthcare—currently ranks first with a score direction of 3.30, while the broader Healthcare group holds third place with a score direction of 2.64. In the DALI sector rankings, healthcare sits slightly behind the two preceding sectors, trailing only by 4 and 6 signals, respectively. Should this technical improvement continue, the healthcare sector could possibly enter the DALI “Equal-Weight” area—something it has not done since 2023.

While the recent strength in defensive sectors may appear compelling, it’s important to approach these moves with caution. As the old proverb goes, “how you get them is how you lose them” — and that may prove a bit of relevance here (although the original quote was in reference to new relationships that were sparked by infidelity). If the outperformance in healthcare and utilities is largely a function of delayed economic data and an investor’s reaction to the uncertainty, then the technical improvement for the defensive areas could be vulnerable once the shutdown ends and fresh data is released. The sustainability of this rotation will likely depend on how incoming economic indicators compare to market expectations. Until then, investors may want to avoid overcommitting to sectors that are benefiting from temporary uncertainty.

While healthcare remains a sector to underweight until further technical improvement, there are still several strong-performing names within the group worth monitoring. AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) sits on 3 consecutive buy signals and near all-time high territory. ABBV is currently in a column of Os, reverting down closer to the middle of its 10-week trading band. The 5 for 5’er moved into a positive trend in May and ranks in the top quartile of the drugs sector matrix. Additionally, the stock offers a yield of over 2.8%. Long exposure can be made here. Initial support may be found at prior resistance in the $210s, while the bullish support line and additional support sit between the upper $180s and $192. Note that earnings are expected on 10/31.

Gold had quite a day, and not for the same reasons we have been talking about for the last few weeks. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) slipped nearly 6.5% on 10/21/2025, its worst day since a nearly 9% daily decline in April of 2013. The move brought GLD back into a column of O’s on its default chart, retreating quickly off all-time highs. Despite this, we are still heavily extended (weekly OBOS of +150%) without notable support on our default chart. As with any large move, it begs the question: Is this the start of something serious or maybe just an opportunity to garner further exposure to an otherwise strong asset class?

Of the roughly 13,250 trading days since 1975, this move is the ninth worst exhale and one of only 13 that saw GLD down more than 6% on a single day. The table below details other notable days, defined by a >6% fall on a single day (do note, clusters are not excluded in our dataset below). Large declines clustered around the late 1970’s and early 1980 (rate hikes to combat aggressive inflation) but other notable declines came in 2006, 2008, and previously mentioned 2013. Not excluding these clusters, forward returns are muted, seeing the one year average return hover around +.1%. That fact alone does at least offer some credence to the idea that it is time for the metal to slow down. After all, GLD is still up ~55% this year, its second best showing through 10/21 of a calendar year since the start of our data set in 1975, only following the 73%+ gain through 10/21 of 1979. Out of curiosity, we included the admittedly limited GLD fund score data (comparatively to this dataset) to see if that might provide more context. The table includes GLD fund scores for large single day declines in 2013 (1.49), 2006 (4.69) and 2008 (5.46). As you might expect, longer-term forward performance metrics are more attractive when fund scores are strong. This fact, despite offering a small dataset… offers some compelling fuel to the idea that this is nothing more than a pullback for an otherwise strong asset class.

With that idea in mind, we can continue to zoom out to provide more context to the recent exhale. The distribution table below breaks down rolling 20-day (roughly one month, including weekends) performance metrics for GLD. Before 10/21, that 20-day advance stood at roughly 16.5%, a 99 percentile reading. Even with the decline on 10/21, the fund is still up just under 10% over the last respective 20 trading days. This represents a 96.3 percentile reading. All this to say… yes, the decline is certainly notable but recent performance has been so strong that the daily decline is a drop in the bucket. On the other hand, a more pessimistic view would suggest that there is still plenty of room to run to the downside before a trading range (or rolling performance range for that matter) is “normal” by any form of the word.

There are two trains of thought here:

• Buy strong assets relentlessly, take pullbacks as an opportunity to double down.
• Wait and see if more consolidation is in store, avoid selling positions until further weakness is established but avoid adding more to current holdings.

Which makes sense to you is largely going to be dependent on your situation. If you already have an oversized position within gold focused names, play more of a wait and see game. For those of you who had waited on the sidelines while gold ran in your face, take the decline as an opportunity to add lightly, with the understanding that there could be more back and forth in store. The empirical evidence behind trend following would suggest you simply buy strong assets without thinking twice, but doing so isn’t always appropriate from a business perspective. Regardless of your next step forward, continue to monitor the space as we move into November.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 10/20/2025:

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