Is interest in NVDA beginning to fade?
This week’s major catalyst is the earnings call from NVIDIA Corporation NVDA, which is expected after the market closes on Wednesday, August 27. NVDA has become a household name for professional and retail investors alike over the past few years due to its cornerstone positioning as the main semiconductor supplier for the AI buildout. It is now the largest stock in the world by market cap and was the first company to cross over the $4 trillion threshold. The stock has been among the stronger semiconductor stocks for nearly a decade, as it has been on a relative strength buy signal against the semiconductor group since September 2015. However, the average person had probably never heard of the company.
That all changed after the company’s earnings call on May 25, 2023. That quarterly report saw NVIDIA blow away expectations and significantly raise forward guidance due to the explosion in demand for their high-end chips to power AI learning models. Since that date, NVDA has returned over 368%, far outpacing the 55% gain of the S&P 500 Index (5/25/2023 – 8/22/2025). The hype became overtly clear one year ago, when bars in New York City began advertising for watch parties around the NVDA August earnings report (source: wsj.com).
The explosion in interest can also be seen through a simple Google trends search for NVDA. The graph below shows the relative search interest in the term “NVDA” over the past three years. Low numbers represent the lowest percentage of relative interest, while the graph hits 100% during the peak of relative interest during the defined period. The graph clear shows an initial spike after the May 2023 earnings reports, followed by further spikes in interest around each of the subsequent earnings reports through last August.
It is not surprising that major spikes in Google search interest for the symbol “NVDA” are clearly associated with share price movement. You can probably assume the same to be true for just about any individual stock ticker. The data does clearly show the progression in interest during each earnings call up until last August. While the company beat expectations a year ago, they did not beat by as wide of a margin as they had in previous quarters. Fast forward three months to last November’s earnings call, and the spike in interest was lower than the previous peak. The same trend continued in subsequent quarters. In fact, the most search interest for NVDA over the past three years came during the week of the DeepSeek induced decline across major technology companies during the last week of January 2025. In hindsight, bars throwing watch party happy hours around a stock’s earnings call should have been a clear indication that the hype was likely hitting its peak.
While the NVDA earnings call might not be as over-hyped as it was last August, we are still talking about the financial reports of the largest public company in the world. NVDA takes up roughly 8% of the allocation within S&P 500 Index, and is about 16% of the allocation within the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK. Even those that do not have individual holdings in the stock are bound to have exposure through some other vehicle. Therefore, we want to examine just how the earnings calls have affected price action over the last three years.
The table below shows the last 12 earnings calls for NVDA, dating back to August 2022. We have included the percentage of upside/downside surprises for both earnings per share (EPS) as well as sales. The performance examination shows the one week trailing return leading up to each announcement, along with the daily, weekly and monthly returns after the earnings event.
The Q1 earnings release in May of this year broke a streak of three consecutive quarters that saw negative price action after the earnings event. Out of the last 12 events, seven saw NVDA have a positive return over the subsequent one week, while five saw the stock post negative returns. Expanding that timeframe to one month after each event shows an even split between positive and negative returns. This might be surprising to those passively following the stock.
Obviously, we have no way of knowing with certainty what will happen to NVDA after the bell on Wednesday. The stock currently has a robust technical picture with a 5 TA rating (out of 5) and sits in the top decile of the favored semiconductors sector RS matrix. We saw the stock retract from its all-time high last week, giving a sell signal after seeing six consecutive buy signals. At this time, that should not be viewed as a sign of concern. Stocks cannot go up forever, and that sell signal seems to be indicative of simple consolidation. Looking forward, we have seen the average one-week forward return post earnings at about 10% in either direction. If NVDA was higher one month after reporting earnings (occurred half the time), it averaged 24%, compared to a decline of about 11% if it was negative.
We have overlayed these levels with the default point and figure chart for reference. Keep in mind that these are simple average readings based on a limited examination of recent earnings dates. However, they could provide some useful points to monitor, especially when viewed in conjunction with the typical support and resistance levels.
