Gold has been on a scorching run this year gaining over 25% year-to-date. While the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) gave its first sell signal in two years this month, the technical picture remains overwhelmingly positive. However, the same can’t be said for the other major precious metal, silver. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has done well this year gaining almost 15%, but it still trades below its 2024 high. Over the last trailing year, GLD has outperformed SLV by 33%. While SLV’s technical picture isn’t overwhelmingly positive like GLD, it does have plenty of support in the mid-20s and is building energy in a year-long range. A breakout above SLV’s 2024 high would open the precious metal for a large move higher, something to keep an eye out for moving forward.

One way to track the relationship between gold and silver is the Mint Ratio, the amount of silver needed (in oz) to purchase a single ounce of gold. In most periods this relationship is inversely correlated to risk appetite, rising in market downturns as investors flock to the traditional safety of gold over silver which tends to have more economic uses. The line chart below is a five-year history of this relationship. Interestingly, the Mint Ratio crossed above its 50-day moving average back in March of this year, which in hindsight would have been a good risk-off signal. It can also be viewed as a mean reversion indicator as gold and silver usually move in conjunction with one another. In April, the Mint Ratio hit 100 for the first time since 2020 and what followed was a strong relative performance from silver. While this doesn’t mean silver has to move higher (gold could fall while silver falls less), if the technical picture for silver improves then it could be a good opportunity for silver to play “catch-up” with gold.

Given the mixed performance for broader US equities so far in 2025, clients have reached out seeking alternatives to traditional indexed equity exposure or sector rotation strategies. Among the model options on the NDW Platform to provide alternative equity exposure is the First Trust Thematic Focus Five Model (Total Return) (FTTHEME5.TR), which utilizes a lineup of First Trust Thematic ETFs that seek to provide exposure to a variety of investment trends that are related to innovative, high-growth industries.

The First Trust Thematic Focus Five Model is designed to identify the five strongest ETFs and utilizes a universe of sixteen thematic ETFs that span various sectors and sub-sectors. Using Nasdaq Dorsey Wright’s relative strength matrix tool and total return pricing data, each one of the thematic ETFs is compared to the rest of the model universe and then ranked according to their relative strength. The model holds the top five ETFs and holdings are only sold when they fall sufficiently in ranking versus the other thematic ETFs within the relative strength matrix. When an ETF is removed from the model holdings, it is replaced with the highest-ranking fund not already owned in the model inventory. Once an addition or deletion has been made, the portfolio is rebalanced so each position within the Focus Five Thematic Model is equally weighted.

In the latter part of April (4/22), the Model rotated out of the First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (GRID) and First Trust Indxx Innovative Transaction & Process ETF (LEGR), which had been holdings since the model’s inception in September 2023. In their place, the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) and First Trust Down Jones International Internet ETF (FDNI) were purchased, shifting the industry exposure within broader technology and adding a flair of international equities to the model. The remaining three holdings have been within the model since inception in September 2023 and bring exposure to specific themes from the broader technology, industrials, consumer discretionary, and utilities sectors when examining the underlying holdings of the funds. Each of the individual ETFs within the current holdings maintain an acceptable fund score north of 3 with four of the five holdings maintaining fund scores north of 5.

So far in 2025, the First Trust Thematic Focus Five Model has outperformed its benchmark, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (TR.SPXX), each month of the year through May and is up more than 10% year-to-date on a total return basis, outperforming the benchmark by more than 9%. On a one-year roll, the model is outperforming the benchmark by more than 7% and brought the strategy back ahead the total return SPX when evaluating performance since inception.  The current holdings have also outperformed their benchmark on a year-to-date basis with three – FDNI, CIBR, and BGNE – each being up 13% or more versus the total return benchmark.

Those who may utilize either the First Trust Focus Five (FTRUST5) or First Trust International Focus Five (FTRUSTINTL) - or similar tactical sector or country rotation strategies - could look to add the Thematic Focus Five Model to provide tactical exposure to innovative themes within the market along with those sectors in the US and regions of the globe exhibiting positive RS and controlled by demand. For more information on the model, check out the information file or view our models page.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

U.S. Sector Updates

The past week saw no significant technical developments in the Utilities or the Technology Sector. Those that saw noteworthy movement are included below, in order of their relative strength ranking in the DALI domestic equity sector rankings, as of 5/28/25. 

Note that all Sector Updates can be found in the Research Hub under "Domestic Equities". Click here for more information about our newest research offering. This new view provides a much cleaner display for the Sector Commentary & Videos, while also allowing us to update the commentary any day. This report article will be phased out at the end of May, but the same timely commentary will continue to be available on the Research Hub.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 05/27/2025:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

Cryptocurrency Update Table

Cryptocurrency Update (2:39)

Daily Option Ideas for May 28, 2025