NDW Prospecting: The Backyard Bullish Percent Indicator
Published: May 22, 2025
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In honor of Memorial Day, we wanted to present you with the cousin of the "Cocktail Party Bullish Percent," the "Backyard BBQ Bullish Percent" indicator.

Memorial Day weekend is upon us, and as in summers past, you will undoubtedly be frequenting several backyard BBQs, both this weekend and in the coming months. If your experiences have been anything like ours, you may have found that these parties can give some very helpful insight on investor sentiment. We have discussed the idea of the "Cocktail Party Bullish Percent” indicator in the past, as a way to gauge the general sentiment of your clients and the public about the market. So, in honor of Memorial Day, we wanted to present you with the cousin of the "Cocktail Party Bullish Percent," the "Backyard BBQ Bullish Percent" indicator. Keep it in the back of your mind as you head to any Memorial Day celebrations this weekend. Our prediction is that you will find yourself somewhere in the middle for most interactions.

Friends, family, and potential clients you see this weekend will also undoubtedly be curious about your take on the market, so we’ve included some notable recent developments below.

  • US equities sit at the top of the DALI asset class rankings after recently overtaking commodities.
  • Long-term US Treasury yields are sitting near multi-year highs as the 30-year yield index (TNX) crossed above 5% on Wednesday.
  • Volatility has fallen significantly over the last month, but the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) gave a second consecutive buy signal and crossed above 20 on Wednesday.
  • While international equities rank third in the DALI asset class rankings, they continue to show signs of strength. The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) both lead the S&P 500 by double digits year-to-date.
  • While we often associate summer with higher oil prices, currently crude oil (CL) is trading in the low $60s after hitting a multi-year low at $56 last month.
  • Expectations for a rate cut have shifted significantly. A month ago, the fed futures were pricing in about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in June. Now, the market is not pricing in a cut until September.
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DISCLOSURE

This report is for Internal Use Only and not for distribution to the public. While we make every effort to be free of errors in this report, it contains data obtained from other sources. We believe these sources to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy. Investors who use options should read the Options Disclosure Document before making any particular investment decision. Officers or employees of this firm may now or in the future have a position in the stocks mentioned in this report. Dorsey, Wright is a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. Copies of Form ADV Part II are available upon request.
Equity prices provided by Thomson-Reuters. Cross Rate prices provided by Tenfore Systems. Option prices provided by OPRA
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