Nowadays, there is no shortage of headlines and global events that constantly change the world’s investment landscape. Late evening action on 6/12 added further unrest to the middle east as Israel struck several Iran operated military and nuclear sites. While this is still a developing story/situation, it sent ripples across several different parts of the global markets, enough so that a handful of technical developments emerged worth noting in today’s report. It goes without saying our research aims to take an emotionless view, strictly focusing on price action resulting from current events.

As with other periods of unrest/uncertainly in the middle east, the first/most impacted area is the energy space. Within hours of the initial headlines, Crude Oil CL/ had jumped as much as 13%+ into the mid-$70’s, moving well past its bearish resistance line at and around current levels on its default chart. While price action cooled off throughout market action on 6/13/2025 into the low-$70’s, the upside action should be significant enough to push the commodity back into a positive trend on its default chart. This will heavily impact the “at a first glace” commentary for the broader energy space, but only time will tell if the unrest will be a major catalyst of longer-term relative strength on the energy front.  

The majority of you readers might have only limited exposure to true commodity exposure within your portfolio. A larger proportion of you will have some allocation to energy based equities, a group which has struggled from a relative perspective throughout 2025. However, recent action has been productive for broader representative XLE, seeing the fund post a pair of consecutive buy signals and re-enter a positive trend on its default chart. While it still sits aways away from being considered “strong,” the move higher is certainly notable. Pair this productive absolute movement with a strong relative showing for XLE against cash proxy MNYMKT on a 3.25% RS chart (below) and the near-term picture continues to improve. All this to say, while long-term strength is still absent for now, energy is showing the markings of a sector that is perking… but keep an eye on the group for follow through before adding exposure.

Other areas have also moved higher. While we don’t dive deeper into the continued strength for gold/precious metal groups in today’s report, the technical backdrop for the group as a whole remains quite strong. Additional global uncertainty is a possible tailwind for the space in the near-term for an already relatively strong asset class. In short, continue to monitor broader commodities. The top three asset classes sit within just a few signals of each other as of 6/13, and a meaningful uptick in long-term strength for energy focused areas could be enough to push Commodities higher. For now, we will wait and see. Remember, with global events come additional noise, headlines, and sometimes fear. At the end of the day, it is paramount that we continue to let price guide our hand as we wrap up Q2.

International Equities moved to number 1 within the NDW DALI Asset Class Rankings for the first time since 2023. While International and Domestic Equities are tied in tally (buy) signal count International emerges as the top asset class due to the group possessing superior near-term relative strength (X ranking within DALI’s relative strength matrix) versus other asset classes. Bear in mind, the top three asset classes – both equity asset classes and Commodities - still reside within 2 tally (buy) signals as of Thursday’s (6/12) close and International continues to be the most improved from a long-term relative strength basis since market lows in April.

While users await to see if International Equities can sustain as the top asset class within the NDW DALI Asset Class Rankings, evidence of the broader asset class’s strong technical picture can be found on the Asset Class Group Scores (ACGS) page. As a brief aside, users who may not be familiar within the Asset Class Group Scores should note the tool utilizes the NDW Fund Scoring System (from 0 to 6) to evaluate and rank over 130+ asset class groups. It offers a more granular, intermediate-term look at the broader market, and part of the tool’s greater sensitivity within compared to DALI is due to a trending evaluation that is considered within the fund scoring system.

With all that said, two notable asset class groups – All Global & International Diversified and All US Equity Diversified – have recently seen the difference between their group scores reach the highest in favor of the international group since 2008/2009. All Global & International Diversified has generally been scoring above the All US Equity Diversified group since early March this year, apart for a few days in early April. This current stretch of superior strength by the international group on the ACGS page sits at just over 3 months and marks the longest since period favoring the international group since May 2017 to May 2018. As noted earlier the difference between the two groups is at its highest in favor of the international group since 2008/2009, which encompasses the 1^st (May 2004 – August 2008;1057 trading days) and 3^rd (May 2009 – February 2010) longest periods in which the international group was favored versus the domestic group.

Given the rise in DALI and superior leadership on the Asset Class Group Scores page, the weight of the evidence is overwhelmingly positive for International Equities and asset allocations should be adjusted, if not already done so.

For much of the year, developed markets had been the driver behind improvement within the broader international space. Since the April lows for the broader global market, both the Global Developed Markets and Emerging Markets Diversified have climbed to scores above the 4 score threshold for the first time in 15+ years. When considering an international equity allocation, both developed and emerging markets show strong enough technical evidence to warrant exposure broader based exposure. Those looking to be more tactical within International Equities will look to overweight European exposure over other regions; though each regional group within the Asset Class Group Scores page scores above the acceptable 3 threshold. With the broader strength offered within International, opportunity is prevalent. Some countries and regions have rallied into overbought territory with this week’s action so investors are likely to look for consolidation at current prices or a pullback to more actionable territory within their 10-week trading band.

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