Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 10/21. Access the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

• Tuesday’s (10/20) trading action was largely positive as many major assets gained ground throughout the day. Leading the way to the upside were small caps (RUT), the equal weight S&P 500 (SPXEWI) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJIA) which all picked up over 1% for the day.
• In terms of notable chart changes, the upside action for the Russell 2000 saw the index return to a column of Xs on its default chart to a chart reading of 2780. Despite this, the recent exhale has seen (RUT) rattle off a string of sell signals and return to a negative trend. All that to say, keep a watchful eye over small cap exposure as we wrap up October.
• Other changes included a reversal back into X’s for long-duration bond fund (TLT) as rates cooled slightly. Despite the short-term uptick, fixed income-particularly those areas further out on the curve- remain laggards when compared to other areas of the investable universe.
• Near-term participation has continued to improve. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (^TWSPX) has climbed back up over 50% recently… a net positive as near-term breadth expands. While the recent exhale has left some damage to more intermediate/long-term readings, an uptick in positively contributing stocks is certainly a good thing.
• The closing bell today (10/21) ushers in earnings for several household names. The likes of META (META), Tesla (TSLA) and Lam Research (LRCX) report after close. Each name earning a technical “Hold” rating (3/5) according to NDW’s technical attribute rating system heading into their respective calls. Looking out to Thursday, Valero Energy (VLO, 5/5’er) is a standout.

Amid emerging volatility within the domestic and international equity space, it can be easy to allow your attention to be drawn from other areas of your portfolio. Despite this, it remains mission critical for you to be able to quickly digest movement across the investable landscape to keep track of budding winners and losers. The commodity space remains a volatile space due to its large reliance on the Middle East (energy) or in some parts rates (precious metals). With so many moving parts in the space, we will take today’s feature to recap some of the recent shifts within the asset class. Finally, we will discuss a possible tactical solution you can slide into your client’s broader allocation.

While an admittedly cherrypicked datapoint, the broad commodities group has picked up a good chunk of strength within NDW’s DALI rankings since the end of June. At a recent low water mark around 147 (as of 6/26), the current 238 signal count represents a 60%+ gain in the total tally. Since that 6/27 date, no other group has managed to pick up additional signals, seeing the equity groups (intl. & domestic) shed a combined 46 signals to other areas of the rankings. It is worth noting here that those two groups maintain their position at the top of the rankings and your overall allocation shouldn’t shift too much… however, the swift uptick in signal count is certainly worth noting. While the exact matrix behind the NDW DALI rankings is proprietary, you can keep track of a similar type of matrix by using the Asset Class Matrix to identify points of strength/weakness across various asset classes. Included below are a screenshot of the majority of the rankings as of 6/28 (left) and 10/20 (right). You’ll notice that four of the top ten members of the matrix are representatives from the commodity space (including both of the top two). Compare this to the 6/26 date, where commodities had no representation within the top 5 of the rankings and overall X counts amongst the space were depleted as near-term strength was at a low. The major mover has been DBO, which has quickly picked up steam over the course of the last few months.

While you might imagine that the magnitude of upside participation for the fund has been intense recently, overall technical posture for the fund remains quite productive as of 10/21. Earning a near-perfect 5.86 fund score, DBO sits on a pair of buy signals on its default chart. The bullish support line below at $19.50 has ushered the ETF higher throughout 2026 despite plenty of volatility in the space. All that to say, a trip back towards the top of the trading band at $27.50 would not be out of the question heading into the close of 2026. To the right of the chart for DBO below is the 2-point chart for crude oil (CL/) which has pushed higher over the course of the year. Previous analyst commentary has discussed the important of the upper $70’s/$80 mark, a point that has seemingly corresponded to markets opinion about the continuation/end of the Iran war. While the energy space remains extremely headline dependent, we have gone ahead and marked off some important points of support and resistance below. 

We will close today’s feature with a hypothetical model that isn’t far from one you might be able to deploy within your own commodities exposure. Behind the scenes, we will run a 3.25% matrix comprised of DBO (oil), DBB (base metals), DBA (agriculture), DBP (precious metals), and DBC (broad commodities). With each of the major segments of the commodities space included, we can then run a model that owns the top ranked asset within the matrix, selling that asset once it falls out of the top ranked position on a monthly basis. Keep in mind that within your portfolio, the exact strategy could take on many different forms (buying two assets for example, or selling lower in the matrix instead of the second position, etc.). Point being, running said test produces the below model. While precious metals rapid fall from grace left the model behind the 8-ball in 2026, overall long-run results are extremely favorable when compared to a broader benchmark like DBC. While owning solely one asset for an entire asset class’s exposure isn’t always the right path, the model below shows how valuable identifying high relative strength assets can be over the course of several decades.

We will end today’s feature by introducing one final wrinkle into the equation. This time, we will replicate our previous model exactly (1 holding, sell at 2, eval monthly, etc.) except for the fact that we will include SPY in the universe. In essence, this answers the question: “What if we don’t want to own commodities right now, and instead prefer large cap equities?” The results are included below, as well as an area graph that displays the “on/off” switches between commodities and US stocks over time. From a high level, this lone addition increases your yearly CAGR from 11.93% to 14.54% since 1994 (5.22% for benchmark DBC. There are certainly instances where the strategy underperforms but the idea remains the same: rotate to points of RS over time, replacing the asset class with US equities when strength dictates. For any questions about the strategy or a free trial of the modeler to replicate such a strategy, email miles.clark@nasdaq.com.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 10/20/26:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (4:06)

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

Call

RTX Corp. (RTX) Jan 15 $185 Call

Put

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) Jan 15 $85 Put

Income

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (Taiwan) ADR (TSM) Nov 20 $480 Covered Call