Recent trading has had an impact on technical indicators and participation levels, along with seeing subsectors showing negative RS against cash.

Through Thursday’s (9/10) trading, all major U.S. equity indices have worked their way into negative territory for the month of September, led to the downside by small caps and equally weighted assets with the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) and S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) down more than 2% (8/31 – 9/10). Given the past few weeks’ trading, index performance for the third quarter is mixed with only the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Russell 1000 Index (RUI) in the black, up 1.23% and 92 basis points, while the remainder are down anywhere from a few basis points to down 3.87% for the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and 4.41% for the Russell 2000 (RUT). Though a few indices have shifted to sell signals on their default point and figure trend charts, the majority still are pulling back from recent highs seen in early-to-mid August. Meanwhile, recent trading has had more of an impact on technical indicators and participation levels.

Short-term indicators from major market universes like the 10-week for NYSE stocks (^TWNYSE) and weekly distribution for NYSE stocks (^WDNYSE) have fallen to their lowest levels since April of this year. Thursday’s (9/10) trading brought the ^TWNYSE chart down to below 40%, highlighting that less than 4 out of 10 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average. Meanwhile, the weekly distribution indicator has dropped to -16%, highlighting that the average stock has moved into oversold territory. While short-term indicators remain above the March 2026 chart lows, intermediate-to-long-term indicators have witnessed initial shifts lower. The bullish percent for NYSE stocks (^BPNYSE) reversed down to Os at the end of August with recent trading bringing the indicator below 50% to 46%, suggesting less than half of the roughly 1800+ stocks within the NYSE stock universe maintain a buy signal on their default trend chart. Following Thursday’s trading, the long-term positive trend indicator for the NYSE reversed into Os to 52%, testing the important 50% threshold and suggesting just over half of the stocks within the NYSE universe are trading above their bullish support line on their default trend chart. Smaller index-related universes like that for the S&P 500 Index have seen indicators witness similar action.

While most cash indicators still maintain low readings, suggesting superior relative strength by domestic equities, sensitive cash indicators like the Money Market Percentile Ranking (MMPR) on the Asset Class Group Scores page have seen a slight uptick. Following Thursday’s (9/10) trading, the MMPR reading has risen to 12.56%, marking the highest level since post-tariff tantrum days in May 2025. Most of the groups ranking below U.S. Money Market on the Asset Class Group Scores page come from fixed income, and most broader sectors sustain positive relative strength against cash. Trading in September has seen some subsectors within the 40 NDW subsector groups show negative relative strength against cash.

The table below highlights those NDW subsectors that currently show either negative near- or long-term relative strength along with the dates the signal and column change occurred. Blue highlights and bold text denote those subsectors with recent negative changes in relative strength. Broadly speaking, industrials and consumer discretionary are sectors in which there have been negative RS from subsectors. Notably, the NDW Aerospace and Textile Indices have reversed into Os and given an RS sell signal in recent weeks. While both subsectors from utilities provide another broad sector in which there has been negative near-term relative strength, the long-term RS picture is still positive. Likely the most notable subsector to show negative near- and long-term relative strength is semiconductors, which gave an RS sell signal in early July and reversed back into Os in mid-August after a brief rebound.

While the long-term technical picture for domestic equities remains favorable at this time, additional moves lower by indicators and an increase in negative relative strength by sectors and subsectors would provide further fodder and potentially change that favorability. Alerts for indicator reversals and status changes along with changes in RS chart signal and column can keep users up to date on technical changes that may impact portfolio allocations.