NDW Morning Pulse
Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 9/2. Access the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page.
- Equity futures are about flat this morning after rebounding from overnight lows. Crude oil down 1.3% after a big up day on Tuesday that saw it gain more than 5%.
- Equities were down across the board yesterday. The S&P 500 (SPX) was down 71 bps. Tech led to the downside as the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) fell 1.29% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) lost more than 2%.
- International equities were also down as the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) were down 89 and 37 bps, respectively.
- Yesterday’s move returned crude oil (CL/) to a buy signal on its default P&F chart as it broke a double top at $88 and continued higher to $90.
- The 10-year US Treasury Yield Index (TNX) reached 4.8%, its highest level since January 2025. The fed futures market is now pricing in a 66% chance that the Fed will raise rates at its September meeting. This is a significant increase from a week ago when the market was pricing in only about a 36% chance of a hike at this meeting. Comments from Fed Chair Warsh affirming his commitment to controlling inflation have helped fuel expectations for higher rates.
- Yesterday’s research focused on uncertainty in small caps in the face of rising rates. Small caps are typically one of the most rate-sensitive segments of the market as higher borrowing costs can be especially difficult for smaller companies to shoulder.
- Broadcom (AVGO) is to set to report earnings today after the close. AVGO is currently a 3 for 5’er and sits on a buy signal after breaking a double top at $376 last week. From here, AVGO’s chart shows support at $352, but beyond level no further support is seen on its default chart until $292. While AVGO’s trend chart does not look particularly strong currently, the long-term relative strength picture remains decidedly positive as AVGO has been on a market RS buy signal since 2014 and a peer RS buy signal since 2010.
