While the broader global equity space has taken a step back during the first few weeks of the third quarter, emerging markets have been a notable point of weakness.
While the broader global equity space has taken a step back during the first few weeks of the third quarter, emerging markets have been a notable point of weakness. Through Monday’s (7/20) close, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has fallen 7% during the third quarter, outpacing the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) to the downside by more than 5%. Even compared to the worst among the U.S. equity indices for Q3, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX), EEM has underperformed by more than 1.5% in July so far.
On its default point and figure chart, EEM broke a double bottom at $64 toward the back half of last week to give its first sell signal in more than 14 months and to complete a bullish signal reversal pattern as shares fell to $63. The sell signal follows a series of six consecutive buy signals, which was the longest streak of consecutive buy signals for the fund going back to inception. With the violation of support in the $64 range, support on the default point and figure chart now resides in the mid to low $50s for EEM. Support closer to current price levels can be found on the $0.50-point-per-box chart in the $61.50 to $62.50 range.
Along with the deterioration on the trend chart, last week’s trading brought the market relative strength chart against the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) into a column of Os, highlighting near-term underperformance by emerging markets relative the U.S. equities. Prior to reversing back into Os, the market RS chart had been in Xs since March 2025 with EEM outperforming the equally weighted S&P 500 by more than 19% during the 17-month period. It is worth noting that the RS chart still maintains a long-term RS buy signal, favoring EEM in the long-term over equally weighted US equities, but investors will closely monitor the chart following this recent reversal lower.
The RS chart comparing EEM to the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) also reversed into Os during last week’s trading, noting the near-term dominance of emerging markets relative to broader global equities that was prevalent during the first half of the year has deteriorated. Even with the recent deterioration, EEM was able to outperform ACWI by more than 4% during the 6+ month period (1/5/2026 – 7/20/2026). The short-term RS picture now matches the long-term RS in favoring broader global equities over emerging markets.
The two countries that have witnessed the most deterioration to the downside relative to broader emerging markets and emerging countries have been South Korea and Taiwan. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) has fallen 19% since the beginning of Q3 with the fund falling more than 11% just last week. Meanwhile, the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) dropped more than 8% during last week’s trading, leaving the fund down more than 11% for the quarter.
On its default point and figure chart, the Korean fund EWY gave an initial sell signal at the end of June at $190, while last week’s trading led to a fourth sell signal and completion of a bearish catapult pattern at $166 as shares fell to $156. Along with the trend deterioration, EWY gave a market RS sell signal against the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) early last week. Prior to the RS signal change, EWY had been on an RS buy signal since September 2025 and gained more than 100% during that time (9/22/2025 – 7/13/2026). Both levels of technical weakness as of late have brought the fund score of EWY below 3.5, marking the lowest levels since May of last year.
While Taiwan has witnessed notable downside, the country has not experienced the same level of technical deterioration as Korea. Last week’s trading led the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) to an initial sell signal with a double bottom break at $100 as shares fell to the mid $90s, violating support in the upper $90s and ending a series of buy signals that began in January. Prior to the sell signal on its trend chart, EWT reversed down into Os on its market relative strength chart against the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI), noting near-term weakness versus U.S. equities. While the fund has shown near-term weakness, the long-term trend and relative strength picture remain positive at this time.
While the fund scores for the emerging market ETFs discussed remain above the acceptable 3.0 threshold, holders of funds like these or other emerging market and Asia-Pacific funds will be closely monitored for further potential weakness. Given the weakness shown compared to leadership in 2025, investors may look to go ahead and lighten up, potentially locking in profits. Otherwise, those who still hold may look to establish a line of demarcation based on support levels whether to maintain or exit exposure.
