This week, we take the analysis a step further by examining a time series of the percentage of companies within the S&P 100 that have exceeded earnings expectations, dating back to 2011. The goal is to better assess the strength and consistency of earnings in the current market environment.
A few weeks ago, we published a Technical Earnings review highlighting both top-line and bottom-line earnings beats across the S&P 500 (click HERE to read more). This week, we take the analysis a step further by examining a time series of the percentage of companies within the S&P 100 that have exceeded earnings expectations, dating back to 2011. The goal is to better assess the strength and consistency of earnings in the current market environment.
An earnings surprise measures the deviation between a company’s reported earnings and the consensus analyst estimate. As equity markets push to new all-time highs, part of this strength can be attributed to improving earnings momentum, with stronger growth expectations supporting higher equity valuations.
The chart below illustrates the quarterly earnings surprise rate—defined as the percentage of companies beating estimates—for the S&P 100 (OEX). Since 2011, the beat rate has averaged approximately 69%, with a range between 60% and 82%. Periods in which more than 75% of companies exceed expectations are generally indicative of a strong earnings environment, while readings below 65% suggest weaker conditions.
More recently, the data highlights a clear shift in momentum. After hovering near 62% in early 2023, the earnings surprise rate has steadily accelerated to roughly 81% in 2026. This improvement underscores a broad-based strengthening in corporate earnings, aligning with the market backdrop following 2023—the first year in the current cycle to deliver 20%+ returns. With earnings surprises still at historically elevated levels, there remains little fundamental pressure to justify a meaningful pullback in equities.
Although various stocks in the OEX have seen consecutive quarters of earnings beat, one that has particularly stood out is Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT). Applied Materials has benefited significantly from tailwinds in the semiconductor space and structural demand tied to AI and advanced chip manufacturing. AMAT currently sits on four consecutive quarters of earnings beat as shown in the chart below, highlighting its strong earnings momentum.
AMAT reversed back into a buy signal after completing a triple top break at $456 last month. The stock is now trading at all-time highs and is up an impressive 95% year-to-date. Additionally, the stock maintains a strong 4/5 technical attribute score. The weekly OBOS indicates that the stock is in overbought territory, so wait for a normalization of the 10-week trading band before considering. Previous resistance can act as initial support, so look for $448 as possible support. Additional levels of support include $400 and $380.
