It has been a strange year for crude oil relative to its average performance this far along in the year.

It has been a strange year for crude oil relative to its average performance this far along in the year. Going back to 1984, the average year for crude oil (CL/) has the commodity up about 5.5% through mid-November and is in the midst of a seasonally weak period. However, this year crude oil has struggled mightily and is down more than 15% year-to-date. Early December is when the seasonal weakness begins to wane, so there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for energy companies and investors. The initiation of tariffs has big impact on crude oil prices, sending them to multi-year lows before sharply recovering during the build-up to US intervention in Iran in June. After tensions deescalated, crude oil went back down, finding a floor at the $56 mark.

While we haven’t seen wild price movements or extreme spot prices like we’ve seen over the last few years going back to 2020, the oil market has had its moments this year like when it dropped from a high of $80 in January to a low of $55 in less than three months. The initial recovery from the lows took even less time before crude steadily headed lower since June. After entering a negative trend in August, crude oil has gone on to retest its 52-week low which is holding for now. Overall, the technical picture for crude oil is poor but may struggle to head materially lower with support in the mid-50s.